How to pick conference upsets

Sure, it's great fun to pick Quinnipiac to win the Northeast Conference. I mean, if they win you get to bask in the glow of feeling really smart. Plus, in our contest you get 5 points that nobody else gets. And best of all you get to say "Quinnipiac" -- over and over in a very loud voice to everybody you know. And the thing is, we know there are going to be between six and ten Quinnipiacs every single year.

But before you take that bold and unorthodox step, you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk? Because just like Dirty Harry's nemeses, you have the low probability, high risk choice which affords both the most upside and the biggest downside, and you have the smart choice.

Because if Quinnipiac loses and the favorite wins, you just put yourself 5 points behind 117 people. The mighty Quinns have a zero percent chance of being selected at-large.

So here's what you do: instead of being the only person to pick Kennesaw State in the Atlantic Sun, look into being one of five people to pick a team like Vanderbilt in the SEC (and, no, we don't have any inside information on the inner workings of the SEC Tournament; we're not actually suggesting you pick Vanderbilt, it's just an example). Because if they win, you still feel pretty smart and you still get between 2 and 5 points that others won't get and, besides, "Vanderbilt" still rolls off the tongue pretty nicely. But if they lose, you get the same 3 points everyone else gets for Vanderbilt. And while you will lose points to the people who chose the actual SEC champion, it will only be 2 points -- not 5 -- and more importantly it's likely to be a much smaller population than those who chose the Northeast Conference favorite.

So, use the information for what it's worth. The important thing is not whether you win or lose, but whether you forked over the ten bucks. Well, that and having fun, of course.