Saturday, March 26, 2016

Fourness

We have our Eight, and the Four get decided in the next day and a half. Surprisingly, five of our top six Final Four choices are still alive:

Kansas (chosen by 51)
Virginia (35)
North Carolina (30)
Oklahoma (28)
Villanova (20)

The only top six choice that is no longer playing is, of course, Michigan State (mourned by 45). Our seventh through eleventh most popular picks are also also-rans:

Xavier (14)
Kentucky (10)
Maryland (9)
Miami (4: Da Dye, L Leach, M McAtee, Tharp)
Iowa (4: Fitch, Pogach, Templeton, Tharp)

The three remaining Elite Eight teams raise interesting possibilities. Well, except for Syracuse, which was chosen by nary a soul. Notre Dame was also chosen by nobody to make the Final Four, but is the wild card of Gorenstein, who has ridden the 20 bonus points all the way into first place with 256 points, and L Schlegel, who currently stands tied for 8th place with 238 points. Another win by the Irish (and the corresponding 30 wild card points) could catapult these two comfortably into the winning circle. Also looking for a little windfall are the three people who took Oregon into the Final Four: D Josephs (in 10th place with 237 points); K Ripley (tied for 25th with 231 points; and Steinhardt (tied for 38th with 222 points), all of whom would presumably welcome 20 Final Four points that nobody else can achieve.

Rounding out our Final Four choices, nine teams that aren't going to get there were chosen by two entrants or fewer:

West Virginia (Booth, T Joseph)
Duke (B Whiteside, J Whiteside)
Baylor (Sa Leach, Rybaltowski)
Arizona (D Kedson, Tester)
Texas (Baumgarten)
Texas A&M (Pogach)
Utah (Sciarabba)
Iowa State (R Wanger)
Dayton (J McAtee)

Looking forward, Gorenstein seems in pretty good shape, 256 current points with the potential of snagging three Final Four teams (including his wild card): Notre Dame, Kansas, and UNC. Three others are also in the top ten of the standings and have three Final Four possibilities: Serri, who currently sits tied for 4th with 245 points and can glean Final Four points from UNC, Oklahoma, and Virginia; L Schlegel, who's currently tied for 8th with 238 points and still has Notre Dame, Virginia, and both of Kansas and Villanova (playing each other so only one can go to Houston); and D Josephs, in 10th with 237 points and Final Four hopefuls Oregon, Virginia, and Villanova.

The rest of our top ten in the standings all have the potential for two Final Four teams:

Harlan, 254 points with Virginia and both of Kansas/Villanova
M Peloso, 245 points with Oklahoma and both of Kansas/Villanova
Su Leach, 242 points with Oklahoma and both of Kansas/Villanova
Crotty, 241 points with Virginia and both of Kansas/Villanova
R Schlegel, 241 points with Virginia and Kansas
Biebel, 238 points with UNC and Kansas

The first two 2016 Final Four teams will earn their spots tonight. Savor the moment.

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