What's in your bracket?

As police search for the shadowy figure who leaked the tournament bracket on twitter, we know our contestants are focused on a much more exigent mystery: How'd Butscher do? The answer is, for him, pretty well. He went with most popular picks in the Sun Belt and Big 10, and shockingly won them both. He tried the second-most popular picks in the Atlantic 10 and the SEC, and predictably dropped both of those. Altogether, Butscher correctly picked 6 out of 32 conference champions. But the big news is that only tied him for worst performance of the year. Yes, another entrant, Tharp, also flubbed 26 of the 32 conferences, and what's more, Butscher picked more correct at-large teams than Tharp and has thus risen to second-to-last place. We guess congratulations are in order.

Lost in the excitement of Butscher's achievements, however, is the utter ineptitude of our contestants in general. Only two entrants accurately selected more than half the conference champions (Harlan, with 18 of 32; and M Wanger, with 17). Only two additional entrants got as many as half correct (Marshall and Crotty, each with 16).

As in the classic movie, Murder on the Orient Express, the number 12 keeps cropping up. More than 60% of us managed 12 or fewer conference winners. Perhaps not coincidentally, a majority of us guessed the conference winner in just 12 of the 32 conferences. Perhaps even less coincidentally, there were also 12 conferences that six (6) or fewer of us got right:

- NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson): 6 (Fitch, M Josephs, M Peloso, Selig, R Simon, M Wanger);
- SWAC (Southern U.): 5 (George B, Booth, Gorenstein, Rubinson, Rybaltowski);
- Atlantic Sun (Florida-Gulf Coast): 4 (L Leach, Sa Leach, Marshall, Rybaltowski);
- MAC (Buffalo): 3 (Sa Leach, Su Leach, R Simon);
- WAC (Cal-State Bakersfield): 2 (Crotty, Harlan);
- Mountain West (Fresno St.): 2 (J Broder, Pogach);
- Conference USA (Middle Tennessee State): 2 (L Leach, J Miller);
- Big East (Seton Hall): 1 (Fitch);
- MVC (Northern Iowa): 1 (L Schlegel);
- OVC (Austin Peay): 0 (nobody);
- Horizon (Green Bay): 0 (not a soul);
- Patriot (Holy Cross): 0 (zip, nada, zilch, you get the gist, right?);

While some would argue leading this pack is hardly an achievement, we still give a prize to the leader as of the selection of the field (i.e., now), and this year that prize goes to Harlan, who has mustered 198 points. Currently in second place (even less of an achievement and even less of a... well, no prize at all) is Gorenstein, with 190, followed by M Peloso and Serri, each with 189. Another 18 contestants are within a Final Four selection (20 points) of the leader.

We'll spend much of the week analyzing our contestants' "wisdom" and looking ahead to the tournament. Have fun filling out your bracket.