Foursomes

Our favorites for the Final Four include three #1 seeds and a #2, although the #2 is in the same region as one of the #1's, so we won't be right (as if that's a surprise to anybody).

Innovative choices were made by George B (Arizona State and Clemson), M Peloso (Duke and Michigan State), Pangolin Palace (Arizona State and Villanova), and R Wanger (Clemson and Wake Forest). Even more inventive were Haklar (Duke, Missouri, UCLA), R Perry (Gonzaga, Marquette, and Wake Forest), and of course the Leach Kids (Duke, Missouri, and Wake Forest).

Everybody's Final Four selections may be perused here.

All Final Four teams selected are below:

FINAL FOUR
-----------------
North Carolina (55)
Pittsburgh (51)
Connecticut (45)
Oklahoma (39)
Memphis (24)
Louisville (23)
Duke (10)
Kansas (4)
Michigan State (4)
Arizona State (3)
Marquette (3)
UCLA (3)
Villanova (3)
Wake Forest (3)
Clemson (3)
Gonzaga (2)
Missouri (2)
Xavier (1)
Texas (1)
Washington (1)

Final Eight count

Our top seven choices for the Final Eight are all #1 or #2 seeds, which probably bodes well for an upset-filled tournament.

As you'd expect, a few contestants branched out into creative territory. Haklar, for instance, chose Missouri, Purdue, and UCLA into her Final 8, while Reilly chose Marquette, Texas, and Utah, and commissioner M Josephs liked Clemson, Gonzaga, and Kansas. Other creative souls include Mahalko, who picked Clemson, Texas, and Washington, and Wadden, who went with Gonzaga, Kansas, and LSU. Going one further was R Perry, who picked Gonzaga, Marquette, Texas, and Washington to be four of the last eight teams standing.

But this year's winner for most imaginative Final Eight goes to J Jones (as well as his alter-ego, J Jones (2)), who is already two picks behind everyone else after going with Clemson, UCLA, Florida, and Kentucky. Although he's looking pretty good in the NIT pool.

All Final Eight teams chosen are as below. For a complete breakdown of everybody's choices, try this link.

FINAL EIGHT
------------------
North Carolina (69)
Pittsburgh (68)
Connecticut (61)
Oklahoma (61)
Memphis (48)
Louisville (45)
Duke (33)
Wake Forest (25)
Villanova (25)
Michigan State (23)
Kansas (16)
Clemson (16)
Missouri (13)
Marquette (12)
UCLA (8)
Arizona State (7)
Gonzaga (6)
Texas (5)
Xavier (5)
Purdue (3)
LSU (2)
Florida (2)
Washington (2)
Kentucky (2)
Illinois (1)
Utah (1)
Siena (1)

Wildlife

Picking Wildcards is a tricky business, but some make it trickier than others. This year ten (10) entrants have a zero (0) percent chance of grabbing any Wildcard points, and we're happy to name them here.

In addition to Broder, J Jones, and R Perry, who chose illegal Wildcards, seven contestants chose Wildcards so wild they were not invited to play: Packman (St. Mary's); Ripley (South Carolina); Mahalko (Penn State); Booth (Florida); D Gray (Florida); Stanton (Creighton); and 2007 contest winner and noted Duke-lover M Peloso (Davidson).

Conference call

Last year, not counting the Ivy League, there were only 14 conferences out of 30 where more than half of our group of canny contestants correctly claimed the conference king. As those who know us might guess, we only bring that up because this year we're even worse.

This year (again, not counting the Ivy), there were only 12 conferences out of 30 where more than half of us guessed right. That's a whopping 40%. In contrast, in 14 conferences this year, 11 or fewer of us correctly chose the conference champion:

Morehead State: 11
Purdue: 11
Akron: 10
Louisville: 9
Temple: 9
CS Northridge: 9
Duke: 7
Northern Iowa: 6
Missouri: 5
Portland St: 3
Cleveland St: 1
Mississippi St: 1
Chattanooga: 0
USC: 0

But examining this sort of thing from a group perspective can sometimes be misleading. If you take the time to look at it from an individual perspective you'll find we look truly pathetic. Taking Cornell out of the equation, only two (2) entrants got more than half the conference tournament champions right: Schlegel and Millan, both of whom got 16 of 30. That's 53% accuracy, for those of you failing at home.

But the commissioners want to give credit where credit is due. Reilly, for example was on the money with Louisville, Mississippi State, and Northern Iowa, certainly enough cool picks to make us forget he also chose Boise St., Jackson St., New Mexico, Wis-GB, UC Riverside, and The Citadel. M Josephs (Louisville, Temple, and CS Northridge) and P Leach (Missouri, Temple, and Purdue) also had three snazzy selections and at least as many sorry ones. R Simon did them one better, choosing CS Northridge, Duke, ETSU, and Northern Iowa, along with Boston University, George Mason, Holy Cross, and San Diego St. Moving up the ladder, Sakowski picked five surprise winners (Purdue, Binghamton, ETSU, Morehead State, and Cleveland State) along with a lot more than five not-so-surpise losers (BYU, Charleston, Dayton, G Mason, Holy Cross, Liberty, New Mexico St., Niagara, Nicholls St., Oral Roberts, and Columbia (!)).

J Donadio impressed with Akron, CS Northridge, Duke, Louisville, Morehead St., and Binghamton, but only managed to pick 7 other (non-Ivy) conferences correctly. Pogach picked Akron, Duke, Louisville, ETSU, Binghamton, and Portland State, but only pulled three other (non-Ivy) conference champions out of his you-know-where, in large part because of choices like BYU, George Mason, Holy Cross, Illinois, Illinois St., Jackson St., New Mexico St., Niagara, Oral Roberts, UC Riverside, Troy, and Sacred Heart.

But, as always, we need to genuflect in the general direction of the Leach Kids, who picked CS Northridge, Morehead State, Northern Iowa, and two (2) other non-Ivy conferences correctly. If you're keeping score (and we know you are), that's a total of five correct conference tournament champions out of 30, a mind-numbing 16.7% accuracy. But don't worry, they picked two hyphenated schools from Arkansas (Ark-Pine Bluff and Ark-Little Rock, as well as Boise St., Boston U, Long Island, Montana, Northeastern, Rider, South Carolina St., Southern Utah, Tex A&M-Corpus Christi, and Western Michigan), so it's OK.

Look for a Final Four and Final Eight count on Tuesday, and Rivals round and Tag Team tallies on Wednesday.

Edit (3/18/09): Well, maybe not Wednesday for the Rivals and Tag Team stuff, but I'll get them up as soon as I can -- DK

Up on my soapbox

OK, this doesn't really have anything to do with the contest, but indulge me for a moment and consider the following four team resumes, and tell me which one you'd pick for the fourth number one seed (you can only choose one)?

Team A:
RPI: 2
Conference tournament champ? Yes
Conference standings: tie for 2nd
Win-loss: 28-6
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 5-3
Schedule strength: 3
Last 10: 8-2

Team B:
RPI: 7
Conference tournament champ? Yes
Conference standings: 1st
Win-loss: 31-3
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-2
Schedule strength: 38
Last 10: 10-0

Team C:
RPI: 8
Conference tournament champ? No (lost in conference quarterfinals)
Conference standings: tie for 2nd
Win-loss: 27-4
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 4-3
Schedule strength: 30
Last 10: 7-3

Team D:
RPI: 5
Conference tournament champ? No (lost in conference semifinals)
Conference standings: 1st
Win-loss: 26-6
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 5-2
Schedule strength: 5
Last 10: 8-2


I know it's not easy, but the only thing for sure is the team you don't pick is team C, right? So what in the world is team C[onnecticut] doing as a number one seed? What possible rationale could the committee have used?

It boggles the imagination.

The brackets are in

Well, the brackets are set and we're off to the races. Our leader after selection of the field (and winner for the prize thereof) is long-time entrant R Schlegel, with 193 points, barely edging out S Adams, who has 191, and Millan, who has 190. Congratulations Mr. Schlegel.

Full standings may be found using the link on the right hand side of this page, or if you're too lazy to go there then you can try here.

We'll have lots more fun, facts, and fabulosity tomorrow, so tune in then.

Millan, dahling

Just four more games and then the fabulous selection special. In the meantime, Memphis (picked by all 70 of us), Binghamton (picked by 23), Temple (9), Missouri (5), Alabama State (59), Utah State (63), Louisville (9), and Cal State Northridge (9) strutted down the championship runway yesterday, leaving Millan as our sole leader, with 86 points. Hot on his heels are S Adams, Brenner, Coach Doc, and McKillip, all with 84 points. Bringing up the rear in fine style are the Leach Kids, with 45.

Buy American

American won its 2nd straight NCAA tournament berth and its 2nd all-time. This impressive history led 61 of us to pick the Eagles, making this one of the few results we've been able to properly predict.

Chalk up the Atlantic 10 as one of the much larger group of conferences about which we've had absolutely no clue, with Xavier (chosen by 47) going down to Temple (chosen by 9) and Dayton (picked by 13) losing to Duquesne (picked by nooooooobody). The count of nine contestants still alive in the A-10 matches the 9 who still have an interest in the Big East (all Louisville) and is actually significantly better than the 5 who still have something to say in the Big 12 (all Missouri).

Just two more days until Selection Sunday, so enjoy the ride.

Life imitates art...

...well, if you can call a commercial for a mediocre wings place "art" then life imitates it. Right down to the refs looking into their magic monitor and waving off the game winning basket at the end of regulation. But Syracuse downing UConn (chosen by 26 entrants) in 6 (!) overtimes wasn't the only disappointment for some of our contestants. Oklahoma (picked by 57), Pitt (32), Sam Houston St. (21), UNLV (18), Miami Ohio (10), Kansas (7), Clemson (6), Arizona (5), NC A&T (4), Kent (4), CS Fullerton (3), Texas Arlington (2), California (1), Rhode Island (1), and Marquette (1) also went down. Hard.

They haven't played the semifinals yet, but only 11 entrants are still alive in the Big East (9 for Louisville, L Schlegel for Villanova, and D Kedson for West Virginia). And only 6 people are still interested in the Big 12 results (5 for Missouri and R Perry for Texas).

More fun tomorrow.

At the buzzer

Two more conference champions determined last night and both of them won by two on shots with mere seconds to play. In the NEC, Robert Morris (selected by 60 entrants) beat Mount St. Mary's (selected by 7). In the Big Sky, Portland State (favored by 3 entrants) beat Montana State (favored by none), much to the delight of Pogach, L Schlegel, and Stanton. Pogach used this unlikely victory to springboard all the way up into a tie for last with the Leach Kids, with 20 points. Stanton used it to keep pace with Brenner and B Peloso at the top, because Stanton also picked Mount St. Mary's. The leaders have 45 points.

The Butler didn't... you know

Three more conference champions, including another one nobody saw coming. Well, Sakowski did, cleverly counting on Cleveland State over Butler (chosen by 68). The other two were more in the mainstream, with North Dakota State (53) winning a squeaker over Oakland (chosen only by Alberts, N Donadio and E Leach), and Western Kentucky (57) controlling South Alabama (0).

The Big Sky winner will be yet another surprise (at least to us), as Weber State (65) got knocked out, leaving Portland State (Pogach, L Schlegel, Stanton) against Montana State (nobody) for the league title.

Four more conferences started their tournaments yesterday, but the only entrants who've lost so far in the MAC, MEAC, WAC, and Big East are the Leach Kids, who chose Western Michigan in the MAC, and L Schlegel who tapped Howard in the MEAC.

We have a three-way tie for first, Brenner, B Peloso, and Stanton, each with 40 points, and a one-way tie for last, Pogach, with 15 points, who has somehow managed to fall behind the Leach Kids, who have 20.

Uh, oh

Check out this video link from the Onion.

Grave implications for the Contest, wouldn't you say? Unless you picked the On-line University of Liverpool, of course.

Pardon me, Roy, is that the cat who chewed the new shoes?

We've finally seen a conference champion that our entrants favored to win; in fact we've now seen three (Gonzaga, chosen by 67; Siena, chosen by 59, and VCU, chosen by 50). But today's big story is Chattanooga winning the Southern Conference after being chosen by zero (0) of our canny contestants.

We now have a six-way tie for first (Luke and John, Brenner, ME Donadio, B Peloso, Stanton, and last year's winner, Whiteside). We have a two-way tie for last, but both of them are J Jones.

Down goes Davidson

Another conference champion today, and another one chosen by hardly any of us. Northern Iowa won the MVC and only six contestants weren't surprised (Mahalko, McKillip, Reilly, R Simon, S Smith, and the Leach Kids). Besides Cornell we've yet to see a conference champ that more than half of us thought would win.

And the streak won't be broken in the Southern Conference championship game tomorrow, as overwhelming favorite Davidson (selected by 63) went down to the College of Charleston (selected by 6) in the league semifinals.

Those crazy Leach Kids are tied for first after choosing Northern Iowa and Morehead State, but they shouldn't start counting their winnings yet considering they also went with Northeastern (picked by 6 others), Rider (picked by 2 others), Montana (1 other), and Long Island (nobody else), all of which have already lost. Twelve other entrants are tied with the Kids, while 15 players have only chosen one winner so far and are tied for last.

In probably the first NCAA Division I men's basketball championship of any kind played in the great state of South Dakota, underdog South Dakota State knocked out Oral Roberts (picked by 13 entrants) yesterday. As you might guess, the home team was picked by absolutely nobody in our contest.

In another odd twist of fate, Troy and Sacred Heart both lost today and were both picked by ME Donadio and Pogach, but by nobody else.

3 more champs

Three more conference champions, and none of them picked by more than half of our contestants. Morehead State (picked by 11) beat Austin Peay (picked by 6) for the OVC crown today. Radford (35) overwhelmed VMI (32) in the Big South, and ETSU (20) slammed Jacksonville (14) in the Atlantic Sun.

Big losers today included Creighton (selected by 88.6% of us, also known as 62 entrants) and Vermont (chosen by 41). We now have a ten-way tie for first place, among John and Luke, Brenner, J Broder, ME Donadio, McAtee-Gattone, P O'Brien, B Peloso, Stanton, Wadden, and 2008 winner Whiteside.

Whiteside antagonist Booth leads a list of 19 entrants who only have one correct conference champion, and that's counting Cornell.

We have Standings

Now that Cornell has won the Ivy League and one ticket has been punched, we have standings that aren't all zeros. (If you want to see those standings, use the link on the right hand side of the page that says, surprisingly, "Standings.") And believe it or not, we do NOT have a 70-way tie.

No, the safe pick may have been Cornell, who at the time the pool was due had a virtual stranglehold on first place in a league that doesn't hold a tournament, but the Big Red's ascension was not a mathematical certainty, and that opened the door for five of our entrants to show they had the guts to trod the path less traveled (Sakowski went with Columbia, and J Jones, J Jones (2), Joe Mc, and Paston all selected Princeton). Due to their daring and courage we now have a 65-way tie for first, and a five-way tie for last. Thanks, guys.

In other news, Morehead State (chosen by 11 entrants) has knocked off Eastern Kentucky (chosen by 5) and UT-Martin (chosen by 42) in the Ohio Valley Conference, and will go up against Austin Peay (chosen by 6 and vanquisher of Murray State, also chosen by 6) for the OVC crown. Radford (35) will battle VMI (32) for the Big South title, leaving only N Donadio, Sakowski, and Rodenstein (who all chose Liberty) in the lurch. In the Atlantic Sun, ETSU (20) faces off against Jacksonville (14), making losers out of the 33 contestants who took Belmont as well as S Adams (Lipscomb), Coach Doc (Lipscomb), and Jr Donadio (Mercer).

As far as we can tell, pretty much everybody else is still alive in every other conference, with the exception of O'Brien, who took Loyola Marymount in the WCC, and the Leach Kids, who took Long Island in the NEC.

And the beat goes on.

What counts as Wild these days

Only seven teams have more than one Wild Card vote:

West Virginia -- 15
Washington -- 13
LSU -- 13
Texas -- 6
Utah -- 5
Arizona -- 3
Florida -- 2

While nine other teams have a single voice of support.

More interesting, as always, are the competitors who try to sneak past the Commissioners a Wild Card that appeared in the AP Top 25 that was linked from both the Rules and the Entry Form.

In the public interest we will name these lawbreakers here, but be warned -- these are potentially dangerous individuals. If you happen to see them don't try to apprehend them yourself; notify the authorities immediately and let armed professionals bring these wrongdoers to justice.

That said, be on the lookout for:

J Broder, who chose #25 Florida State as his Wild Card;
J Jones, who chose #8 Memphis; and
R Perry, who chose #5 Louisville.

And then dial 911.

A relatively safe first day

No big upsets on the opening evening of conference tournaments. In fact, only five entrants have lost so much as a single pick, and all of them chose Eastern Kentucky to win the OVC (N Donadio; J Jones; J Jones (2); Kasprzak; Stanton).

Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic Sun, Patriot, and Sun Belt conference tournaments. Enjoy.

Good news for Duke fans

In the 19 years this contest has been running, our contestants have had a favorite for National Champion every single year. And in four of those years, our group of supposedly knowledgeable individuals has actually been correct. That's right, our entrants are on the money in over 21% of their collective championship predictions! Admit it, you're impressed.

We bring this up because this year our contestants have annointed the University of North Carolina as our favorite for National Champion. Which based on our history would make any Duke fan smile.

The breakdown of all our choices for champion are as follows:

UNC -- 27
UConn -- 12
Pitt -- 11
Oklahoma -- 10
Louisville -- 4
Memphis -- 3
Duke -- 2
Clemson -- 1

OK, the contest really begins

It turns out we have 70 entrants, including one sent via e-mail we forgot about at the time of the last post. We're not sure how many are paying entrants, because the deadline for payment is later this week. (NOTE: If your intention has been to be eligible for prizes, please read the previous sentence.)

The OVC, Big South, and Horizon conference tournaments begin tonight, so let's all get out there and root for High Point.