Who's got Kansas?

Sorry to be absent for the last couple days. I was closeted in a big room with lots of beer and TVs.

Well, we warned the good people of Lawrence, Kansas of their impending doom (as augured by negative omen of Kansas' being a clear favorite of our entrants), and they ignored us to their peril. Our contestants are now a solid 5 for 21 in predicting champion. The Jayhawks were chosen by 28 of us as national champs, 73 of us as a Final Four team, and 75 of us as a Final Eight team. Oops.

Villanova's demise was perhaps less obvious to longtime contest observers, but we would be remiss if we didn't mention that nine of us have the Wildcats as champs (Bill Acchione, Brindisi, J Broder, DeMaso, D Kornfeld, Mash Leach, M Paston, Sakowski, and L Schlegel); 30 of us liked Villanova into the Final Four, and 64 took Villanova into the Final Eight.

The No. Iowa surprise was good news to the seven entrants who had the pesky Panthers as their wild card (Bud Acchione, Booth, E Leach, L McAtee, M Paston, B Peloso, and R Wanger). R Wanger has parlayed his savvy selection into a (possibly temporary) run into first place, where he now stands with 204 points. Booth's choice of No. Iowa has allowed her to scramble into second-to-last place, two points ahead of Madison Leach.

The only other Saturday wild card winners were Bill Acchione and Durkin, who chose Baylor. [EDIT: they only thought they were winners, but now they've been caught red handed.] There are 39 contestants who have a wild card playing today (Sunday, 3/21), having chosen Maryland (17), Xavier (12), Missouri (3), Cornell (2), Georgia Tech (2), and California (1).

Full standings are at the link on the right. Full Elite Eight and Final Four information will be available sometime this week. And of course we'll be looking into Rival performances and the annual Tag Team competitions in the next few days.

More games, starting now...

The economy and your wildcard

Word on the street is the Sociology department of a major midwestern university is conducting an in-depth study on the correlation between worldwide economic conditions and wildcard selection in pre-NCAA tournament pools. And while we hesitate to steal their thunder on the eve of their submission to a prominent sociological journal, we feel obligated to post our own findings here:

In early 2008, prior to the unexpected collapse of Bear Stearns, we had three (3) contestants choose illegal wildcards and four (4) who chose wildcards that failed to make the NCAA tournament field. These numbers were fairly representative of the totals for the previous five years (where we had an average of 4.4 illegal wildcards chosen and 4.2 wildcards that didn't make the field).

In 2009, with many of us tightening our belts, it became apparent that more and more of those belts were worn around their owners' heads. Again we had three (3) illegal wildcards, but the number of entrants who picked wildcards that didn't get into the bracket rose to seven (7).

This year, with two years of recession staring us in the face, the wildcard numbers have reached alarming proportions. Five (5) [EDIT: Seven (7)] contestants chose illegal wildcards (as reported previously, those five [EDIT: seven] were Richardson, L Donadio, R Kornfeld, D Kornfeld, and Hubbard [EDIT: add Bill Acchione and Durkin to this slithery collection of individual lawbreakers]), and a mind-boggling thirteen (13) of us wasted our pick on teams who probably didn't even bother to watch yesterday's numerous selection specials. In fact, our fourth and sixth most popular wildcards didn't get invited to play, as Canning, Huffnagle, Mash Leach, Pike, P Ripley, and Rybaltowski chose UConn and Karlsruher, Millan, Sakowski, and Warner took Virginia Tech. Similarly unfortunate were DaLauro (Arizona State), R Perry (Mississippi State), and Freidhof (William & Mary).

The last time it was this bad? You guessed it -- during our last economic recession in 2002, when we had a whopping eleven (11) illegal wildcards and fourteen (14) wildcard teams who watched the tournament on TV. And now that we've beaten the sociologists to the punch we've got at least a decent shot at the Nobel, right?

Some of this year's contestants apparently aren't feeling nearly as much of a pinch. Our most popular wildcard, Maryland (17 votes), is a #4 seed; and Durkin and Bill Acchione are riding high on the hog (or possibly the bear) with their selection of #3 seed Baylor. [EDIT: riding high no longer; the bear market has finally caught up to these two "businessmen."]

Top votegetters:

Maryland (17)
Xavier (12)
Northern Iowa (7)
UTEP (6)
UConn (6)
Virginia Tech (4)

Others:

Missouri (3 -- Brenner, Harlan, Madison Leach)
Cornell (2 -- Brindisi, Cohan)
Georgia Tech (2 -- D Kedson, Tester)
Siena (2 -- Broder, Packman)
Arizona State (1 -- DaLauro)
Florida (1 -- M McAtee)
Mississippi State (1 -- R Perry)
Clemson (1 -- Merril)
California (1 -- L Schlegel)
Louisville (1 -- Fitch)
William & Mary (1 -- Freidhof)

The next champeeeen?

As a public service, we routinely make our data available to champagne salespeople so they know who our entrants' favorite is to win it all. It allows them to save time and concentrate on everybody else. The team that has had the most votes for champion in our contest has actually been the champion only five times in our twenty years of existence (a whopping 25% success rate), so the following may give some people in Lawrence, KS, the willies:

Kansas -- 28
Syracuse -- 19
Kentucky -- 12
Villanova -- 9
Duke -- 6
Kansas State -- 1

All #1 or #2 seeds, and nothing too crazy (unless you count P Leach's selection of Kansas State to win it all). Which essentially confirms our earlier suspicions that we're in for one wacky tournament.

The bracket is set

Well, the bracket is set and our hearts are all aflutter. We'll have more later and/or tomorrow, but for now we'll just say we have a three way tie for first place (with 200 points), meaning Adams, McKillip, and Whiteside will split the $100 prize (assuming they all paid, which we haven't checked yet).

Six entrants were within one lousy at-large selection of the leaders: Missy Peloso (198), R Wanger (198), J Donadio (197), R Schlegel (197), Smith (197), and G Wright (197).

Bringing up the rear is Whiteside's whipping girl Booth, with 153 points, followed closely by Madison Leach (156).

Official standing may once again be accessed via the Standings link on the right.

heartbreak

Mississippi State was, like, a tenth of a second away from winning the SEC. Now the talking heads say they won't even get a bid. It's "heartbreak city," as Dickie V might say, for the players, the coaches, and the university. But what about Baum, Cohan, D Kedson, and R Perry? I mean, they're out five points!

Anyway, Ohio State and Minnesota are still playing, but so far today's winners have been the favorites: Duke (64); Kentucky (58); and Temple (36).

Broder and McKillip are currently tied for first with 102 points, with six teams tied and right behind at 99.

Full standings, blah, blah, blah, on the right.

It's South Dakota!

South Dakota beat Houston Baptist tonight to win the inaugural Great West conference championship, in a game that had absolutely no bearing on the NCAA Tournament. Just thought we'd pass that along.

In games that actually matter:

Kansas won the Big 12, as 69 of us said they would;

Vermont secured the automatic bid from the America East conference, much to the delight of 27 of us;

UC-Santa Barbara, picked by 48, won the Big West;

Ohio, predicted by nobody having anything to do with the contest, took the MAC;

Houston, also considered only by people who didn't enter a pool (and probably not very many of them) won the day in Conference USA;

Sam Houston (chosen by 65) beat Stephen F. Austin in the battle of 19th Century Texans also known as the Southland conference;

Morgan State (predicted by 73) took no prisoners in the MEAC;

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (taken by Booth, Brindisi, Canning, DaLauro, ME Donadio, Harlan, D Kedson, E Leach, Missy Peloso, Sakowski, R Wanger, and Merril) played their best hand to win the SWAC;

West Virginia (liked by Canning, Crotty, D Kedson, Templeton, and Tester) emerged victorious in the Big East;

New Mexico State (envisioned by Baum, S Leach, and R Perry) stunned overwhelming favorite Utah State (61).

Washington (wanted by M Josephs, D Kedson, S Leach, and Tester) pulled through in the Pac-10; and

San Diego State (guessed by Baum I, Baum II, and Freidhof) climbed to the top in the Mountain West.

In tomorrow's action, it's Duke (picked by 64) vs. Georgia Tech (picked by no one) in the ACC; Kentucky (58) vs. Mississippi State (Baum I, Baum II, Cohan, D Kedson, R Perry) in the SEC; Ohio State (45) vs. Minnesota (considered by nobody) in the Big 10; and Temple (36) vs. Richmond (15) in the Atlantic 10.

McKillip currently leads the contest with 89 points, followed by J Broder (87) and Missy Peloso (86), while seven additional entrants are right behind with 84. At the other end, Booth (41) is gaining ground on the Leach girls (Samantha Leach (56) and Madison Leach (54)).

Full standings, as always, available through the link on the right.

Clear the Decks

The Big East and ACC each had one (1) of their top four seeds advance to their conference tournament semifinals, while only two (2) of the top four seeds advanced that far in the Big 10. In the Mountain West, #1 seed New Mexico (chosen by 30) has gone down and #2 seed BYU (chosen by 32) is losing in the 2nd half [EDIT -- BYU lost]. As we've said before, if the conference tournaments are any indication we may be in for a wild ride next weekend.

In today's only conference final, Lehigh (predicted by 58 of us) survived in the Patriot League. New standings are once again available through the link on the right.

Tomorrow's finals include:

America East: Vermont (chosen by 27) vs. BU (just Canning and Madison Leach)

Big 12: Kansas (taken by 69) vs. Kansas State (Baum, Crotty, DeMaso, Freidhof, P Leach)

Big East: Georgetown (Baum, M Josephs, Madison Leach, M Paston, Rybaltowski) vs. West Virginia (Canning, Crotty, D Kedson, Templeton, Tester)

Big West: UC Santa Barbara (picked by 48) vs. Pacific (25) OR Long Beach St. (Brindisi, Pike); [EDIT -- Long Beach won]

Conference USA: UTEP (liked by 55) vs. Houston (nobody)

MAC: Akron (selected by 16) vs. Ohio (zilch)

MEAC: Morgan State (supported by 73) vs. South Carolina State (the big oh)

Mountain West: San Diego State (Baum I, Baum II, Freidhof) vs. BYU (32) OR UNLV (Canning, Cohan, Fitch, D Josephs, M Josephs, S Leach, Richardson, Rybaltowski, R Schlegel, Templeton); [EDIT -- UNLV won]

Pac 10: California (favored by 51) vs. Washington (M Josephs, D Kedson, S Leach, Tester) OR Stanford (zerocity); [EDIT -- Washington won]

Southland: Sam Houston (picked by 65) vs. Stephen F. Austin (Booth, L Donadio, B Kleiman, E Kleiman, M Kleiman, S Leach, Pike)

SWAC: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Booth, Brindisi, Canning, DaLauro, ME Donadio, Harlan, D Kedson, E Leach, Merril, Missy Peloso, Sakowski, Wanger) vs. Texas Southern (a handful of nothin')

WAC: Utah State (predicted by 61) vs. Nevada (Alberts, Brindisi, Coach Doc, M Josephs, P Leach, Richardson) OR New Mexico State (Baum, S Leach, R Perry); [EDIT -- New Mexico State won]

We're not waiting for the western games to complete [EDIT -- but we've now marked them above], but enjoy your weekend. We're less than 42 [EDIT -- 32] hours away from the final bracket.

Big Sky

In last night's action, Montana, considered only by Madison Leach, bested big favorite Weber State (chosen by 64 entrants) in the Big Sky finals, bringing young Madison all the way up into a tie for 34th place. Bob Morris (picked by 51) snuck by fan favorite Quinnipiac (taken by 20).

In perhaps a harbinger of postseason upsets to come, both Syracuse (selected by 39 contestants) and Villanova (favored by 23) went down in their very first 2010 Big East tournament games.

Standings, of course, are reachable through the link on the right.

The Butler did it

Three more teams have gotten on the tourney train. Butler was a unanimous selection in the Horizon, North Texas was chosen by 30 entrants in the Sun Belt, and Oakland was picked by 60 contestants in the Summit.

In the Big Sky, overwhelming favorite Weber State (selected by 64) faces off against Montana (taken only by Madison Leach). In the Patriot League, big timer Lehigh (favored by 58) goes up against its traditional rival Lafayette (picked by 9: Canning, Cohan, L Donadio, Huffnagle, D Kornfeld, Madison Leach, MASH Leach, R Perry, and Sakowski).

The news that Mash Leach has once again dipped into the pool is enough to send shivers down many a spine. But that will have to wait and be the subject of another post.

As always, standings are available on the link on the right.

How the standings work

Every single year at least one or two people e-mail us to ask how [fill in your favorite entrant moniker here] could have six correct conference champions and have 30 points while Adams has six correct conference champs but has 33 points. Do the commissioners like Adams better than them? (And every year it's always Adams, for some reason. Isn't that weird?)

So, after 21 years, here is the answer: We get 5 points for every correct conference champion and 3 points for every team we've identified at-large who makes the field.

Still flummoxed? Well, suppose Adams picked Gonzaga to win the WCC and St. Mary's as an at-large team. Well, St. Mary's won, and thus they've made the field, so Adams gets 3 points for that, in addition to the 5 points for each of the six conference champions she has so far selected.

This seeming anomaly goes away, of course, when the entire field is chosen, because then all the people who picked Gonzaga get their 3 points. True, Adams will get 6 points (3 for St. Mary's and 3 for Gonzaga), but that's because she picked two teams who made the field while someone who picked Gonzaga to win the conference and didn't pick St. Mary's at all only picked one.

Still confused? Tough.

Four more

The majority of us guessed right on three of four tonight, although all three were close games. Old Dominion (chosen by 51) eked by William & Mary (selected by 4) in the CAA final, Wofford (favored by 40) edged Appalachian State (taken by 8) in the Southern, and Siena (picked by 74) got by Fairfield (liked by nobody) in the MAAC. The only blowout was by the sole underdog to win: St. Mary's (selected by Canning, D Kedson, M Leach, Paston, Sakowski, and Yolles) kicked Gonzaga's keister in the WCC.

In the Summit conference, Oakland (selected by 60) faces off against IUPUI (taken by 12: Alberts, Booth, DaLauro, Coach Doc, Freidhof, Harlan, D Kedson, S Leach, Merril, Sakowski, Templeton, Tester). In the Sun Belt, it's North Texas (thought highly of by 30) versus Troy (fought for by 5: Claude, L Donadio, Karlsruher, E Leach, B Peloso).

Updated standings are, of course, available via the link on the right.

No Iowa

Northern Iowa became the 5th team into the tournament, as foreseen by 66 of us. Only D Baum (I & II), Booth, Fitch, M McAtee, Merril, Paston, Richardson, and Templeton thought the MVC tournament would end differently.

Five conferences are down to their Finals. In the America East conference, our favorite Stony Brook (chosen by 44) went down in the semis, leaving Vermont (picked by 27) vs. Boston University (selected only by Canning and M Leach).

Canning and M Leach could look like heroes if they land the perfecta of BU and St. Mary's (chosen by the two of them plus D Kedson, Paston, Sakowski, and Yolles), although history suggests otherwise (at least for M Leach). 69 of us took the safer path and chose Gonzaga in the WCC.

Old Dominion (51) is our favorite in the CAA, with only Friedhof, D Kedson, Templeton, and Tester going with William & Mary.

Everybody except L Schlegel picked Siena in the MAAC, and nobody picked Fairfield. A slight majority (40) picked Wofford in the Southern conference, while Alberts, Booth, ME Donadio, Huffnagle, M Leach, B Peloso, P Ripley, and Sakowski were the only believers in Appalachian State.

Updated standings are available using the link on the right.

Scofflaws

We try, we really do. We write the rules as clearly as we can. We provide links on both the Rules page and the Entry Form which lead to the particular AP Top 25 that governs which teams are ineligible to be Wild Cards. Yet every single year a few entrants figure they can sneak one by us.

Well, after 21 years we've finally had enough. According to our lawyers, this post will serve as legal notice to Richardson (#25 Richmond), L Donadio (#23 Wake Forest), R Kornfeld (#21 Temple), D Kornfeld (#20 Tennessee), and Hubbard (#15 Texas) that we have submitted all your names to the Enforcement Division of the IRS.

Good luck with the audit.

EDIT: Two more wildcard scofflaws have come to light: Bill Acchione and Durkin, who both chose #22 Baylor, bringing the total of bad guys up to seven (7).

First Four In

Four teams have had their ticket punched, and in typical form our contestants were ready for two of them. Cornell clinched the Ivy League, as they were very close to doing before the pool was due, an easy five points for all concerned. Well, for all but Sakowski, who picked Harvard. OVC favorite Murray State also came through, as all of us except Booth, M Leach, S Leach, and L Schlegel predicted.

Only five entrants saw the Music Man and picked Big South winner Winthrop -- Bud Acchione, Cohan, ME Donadio, P Leach, and Rybaltowski. Only one of us (Brindisi) had any inkling that ETSU might outlast Lipscomb, Belmont, and Jacksonville in the Atlantic Sun.

For those like Sakowski who like to eschew the obvious, contest standings may be seen by clicking on the link to the right that says, "Standings."

The Dance Card is filling up....

Congrats to those who had the foresight to take Cornell to win the Ivy. Hopefully it's a 75 way tie for first in the pool.

I don't believe many if anyone had Winthrop to win the Big South. Coastal Carolina and Radford were the favorites in that one.

Upset City Already

For those of you in the pool who weren't up on their Atlantic Sun basketball, the one seeded Lipscomb lost to the eight seeded Kennesaw State. Yikes, some of us are already behind the eight ball.

It has begun

Here we go. 75 brave souls have entered this year's Contest and subjected themselves to our scrutiny. Bwahaha.

Not sure yet how many paid for the privilege.

We'll be going into the details over the next days and weeks, so check back soon for a whole lot of clever remarks and witty repartee (or at least what passes for clever remarks and witty repartee 'round these parts -- your mileage may vary).

Deadline is Friday

If you want to enter the contest, the deadline is this Friday, February 26.

Here's the entry form if you want to take care of it right now.

Old enough to drink

Yessir, the Contest is 21 years old this year, and we want to buy it a beer. But it's probably some sort of Interstate Commerce violation, so instead we'll once again be blogging right here about the Contest and college hoops, between now and April 5 (and maybe a couple days after that).

If you've never heard of our PreNCAA Contest, or have forgotten how to play, the Rules are here.

If you're interested in joining the many savvy entrants who have participated over the past two decades, the Entry Form is here.

Any questions? Please contact us at PreNCAAContest@gmail.com.

It's that time again

Here we go! Yes, we're gearing up for our twenty first contest. The entry form should be ready sometime during the week of February 15, 2010, and the sarcastic banter shouldn't be too far behind.

We bet you can't wait, can you? So check back with us early and often.