50%

Back in the day, we used to lament that our contestants were rarely able to rise to the success level that would pass a third grade spelling test. At the time we were talking about the 60% that would merit a "D" in an elementary school exam. Of course, times have changed over the 25 years we've run the contest. Grade inflation in the schools has run rampant. These days the kids have to really try to get as low as 60%.

Which makes this year's "achievement" by our entrants that much more impressive, because our group seems to have gone the other way entirely. At every opportunity.

When it came to conference champions, exactly one (1) of us even reached the 50% level, as J Donadio, Jr., alone, managed 16 out of 32. Only seven contestants (including J Donadio, Jr.) got as high as 46.9% (15), the others being Steinhardt, DaLauro Jr, Mad Leach, Marshall, s adams, and T Joseph 2, while ten contestants managed less than 30%: B Brenner (9), S Leach (9), Templeton (9), B Wright (9), Sanders (8), Selarnick (8), Crotts (8), M Pogach (8), M Paston (8), and L Leach (7 -- 21.9%).

We had high hopes that our abysmal conference champ performance was an aberration, that things would improve once we got to the Elite Eight and beyond. Uh, yeah, right. Exactly one (1) playah beat 50% on Elite Eight teams (M Josephs, with 5 of 8). Another 23 of us got exactly 50%, while two contestants (M McAtee and B Wright) guessed just one (1) Elite Eight team correctly (that would be 12.5%), and three (3) contestants (Urban Angels, T Cristinzio, and Lenok 2) got zero (0) Elite Eight teams. Yeah since most of you reading are pretty much the people we're talking about, we feel compelled to point out that last equation works out to 0%.

Nobody beat 50% when it came to predicting Final Four teams, although 12 of us hit the 50% mark exactly. Unfortunately, that "success" mark is dwarfed by the 28 (!) prognosticators who found their way to zero (0) correct Final Four teams. And just in case you've forgotten, that still comes out to 0%.

If you're hoping that we'll make a valiant comeback when it comes to national champion, well, fuggedaboudit. Only 29 of us (28.2%) still have a champion alive. That would include the 28 of us that chose Florida and new leader Baumgarten, who took Wisconsin. None of us were savvy enough to choose Kentucky or Connecticut, meaning that other than those who selected the #1 team in the country on the day the pool was due, only one (1) of us managed to have a champion alive going into the tournament's final weekend. Please don't think us rude if we don't ask you guys for stock tips.

For what it's worth, 69 people took Florida into the Final Four. Nine entrants each took Kentucky (Booth, Brenner, Case, D Kedson, L Leach, M Paston, Pomerantz, R Simon, Steinhardt) and Wisconsin (Baumgarten, Brenner, Jr., N Donadio, J Donadio, Sr., Haklar, T Joseph 2, L Leach, McKillip, L Schlegel). Nobody picked Connecticut.

If Florida wins next Monday, our winners will be McKillip, Steinhardt (who, if she does finish 2nd, will have the distinction of winning some moolah in each of the three years she has entered the contest), and J Donadio, Jr.. If anything else happens, our winners will be Baumgarten, McKillip, and Haklar.

Full standings may once again be found using the link on the right hand side of the page. Tune in during the coming week for the ever-popular Tag Team totals and the 2014 edition of Rivals.

Two down

Two Final Four teams decided tonight -- our top pick Florida (chosen by 69) beat Dayton, and our not-anywhere-close-to-top-pick, Wisconsin (taken by just 9: Baumgarten, Brenner, Jr., N Donadio, J Donadio, Sr., Haklar, T Joseph 2, L Leach, McKillip, L Schlegel), are both in the Final Four and awaiting the other two tomorrow.

J Donadio, Jr. (243 points) still maintains a five point lead over sister L Donadio (238 points), but more importantly trails brother N Donadio (245) and is mired in 7th place. Our new first placeholder is Baumgarten, with 257 points, and is followed by McKillip (253), Haklar (252), M Josephs (252), and Mad Leach (249). Full standings may be found using the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Final Four is a wrap tomorrow. See you then.

...there

Here's a fun little tidbit to think about next time you fill out a pre-NCAA contest entry: in each of the past 7 years, and in 19 out of the last 25 years, at least one team from the previous year's Final Four made it again. For example, last season the surprise of the 2012 Final Four, Louisville, repeated its Final Four appearance and won the national championship for good measure. This year, with Wichita State and Louisville both going down to Kentucky (and with Syracuse losing to Dayton in the 2nd round), the only hope for a repeat Final Four team is Michigan, after the Wolverines beat Tennessee by two.

At least 50 of our entrants were happy with Michigan State's two point victory over Virginia. Kentucky and Michigan were each the darling of 19 contestants, while only Barone and A Cristinzio are toasting 7-seed Connecticut's latest Elite Eight appearance.

J Donadio, Jr. has dropped from the top spot and is currently in 3rd place, stuck on 223 points. M Josephs surged into the lead for the first time since 1998, with 232 points, though Madison Leach (229 points) is hot on his proverbial heels. Urban Angels (114) and B Wright (136) are still queuing up at the end of the line. Full standings may be found using the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Halfway...

Nobody picked Dayton. Only 29 people picked Wisconsin into the Elite Eight, and those entrants are dominating the top of the leader board in the fairly meaningless "halfway" standings (available from the link on the right-hand side of the page). Florida and Arizona were our 1st and 4th favorite Elite Eight choices, so not a lot of drama there.

Perhaps both meaningful and dramatic is the fact that J Donadio, Jr. (who did not pick Wisconsin) continues to cling to the top spot with 223 points, just 3 points ahead of non-paying ESPN Bracketology (220), and only 5 points ahead of his sister L Donadio (218). Baumgarten (217) is also putting some heat on the leaders.

Only 9 contestants have Wisconsin into the Final Four (Baumgarten, Brenner, Jr., N Donadio, J Donadio, Sr., Haklar, T Joseph 2, L Leach, McKillip, L Schlegel). Florida and Arizona are our 1st and 5th favorite Final Four choices. Again, nobody has Dayton.

In tonight's games, 50 contestants chose 4-seed Michigan State while only 25 took 1-seed Virginia. Ten (10) entrants went with Iowa State while only two (2: Barone, A Cristinzio) took a chance on Connecticut. We had 19 people each who liked Michigan and Kentucky into the Elite Eight, while 43 favored Louisville. Tennessee would join Dayton in the Oops Brigade.

There are no wild cards still standing.

Things will sort out a little more tonight. Enjoy the games.

Who we thought would be Elite and Final

Here's something moderately interesting. In most years our top choices for champion, Final Four, and Elite Eight are the same (or very close to it). Not so much this year:

Top four choices for champion:

Florida: 28
Arizona: 18
Duke: 15
Syracuse: 14

Top four choices for Final Four:

Florida: 69
Kansas: 59
Syracuse: 51
Duke: 46

Top four choices for Elite Eight:

Florida: 92
Kansas: 82
Syracuse: 82
Arizona: 80

So, Duke was 3rd most popular champion, 4th most popular Final Four choice, and 5th most popular Elite Eight selection. Kansas was 2nd most popular Final Four, tied for 2nd most popular Elite Eight, and only 5th most popular champion. Arizona was 2nd most popular champion, 5th most popular Final Four choice, and 4th most popular Elite Eight team. Syracuse went 4th, tied for 2nd, and 3rd. Of course, three of those four teams have lost to double-digit seeds already, so there's also that.

Correlating our choices to the selection committee's seeding, our top four Final Four choices included a 1-seed, a 2-seed, and two 3-seeds. Our next four most popular Final Four choices included two 1s and two 4s. The last 1-seed went to our tied-for-16th choice for Final Four. Nice to be right on top of things, right?

Here's the full list of all teams chosen for the Elite Eight:

Florida (chosen by 92 out of 103 contestants)
Syracuse (82)
Kansas (82)
Arizona (80)
Duke (75)
Wichita State (65)
Michigan State (50)
Louisville (43)
Villanova (36)
Creighton (36)
Wisconsin (29)
Virginia (25)
Michigan (19)
Kentucky (19)
Saint Louis (16)
Cincinnati (14)
Iowa State (10)
San Diego State (9: Butscher, Chumchucker, L Leach, M Paston, M Peloso, Pomerantz, Steitz, Watson, B Wright)
SMU (5: Case, Gorenstein, Lenok 2, M McAtee, Templeton)
North Carolina (4: DeLauro, Jr., Lenok 2, Rybaltowski, Serri)
Ohio State (4: Baumgarten, B Brenner, S Leach, R Simon)
Gonzaga (3: T Cristinzio, J McAtee, B Wright)
Connecticut (2: Barone, A Cristinzio)
Oklahoma State (2: D Kornfeld, Steitz)
St. Joseph's (2: Crotty, J McAtee)
UCLA (2: Chumchucker, Kovolski)
Boston U (2: Kovolski, Urban Angels)
Chattanooga (Urban Angels)
Houston (Urban Angels)
NC Central (Urban Angels)
UNC-Asheville (Urban Angels)
North Dakota State (Urban Angels)
New Mexico State (Urban Angels)
Delaware (A Cristinzio)
Clemson (A Cristinzio)
Baylor (A Cristinzio)
Harvard (Corey)
Memphis (Rybaltowski)
Xavier (Booth)
Pittsburgh (Isdaner)
Southern Mississippi (T Cristinzio)
Texas (Selarnick)
New Mexico (T Joseph 2)

Here's our full Final Four list:

Florida (69)
Kansas (59)
Syracuse (51)
Duke (46)
Arizona (40)
Wichita State (31)
Michigan State (21)
Louisville (19)
Villanova (11)
Creighton (10)
Kentucky (9: Booth, Brenner, Case, D Kedson, L Leach, M Paston, Pomerantz, R Simon, Steinhardt)
Wisconsin (9: Baumgarten, Brenner, Jr., N Donadio, J Donadio, Sr., Haklar, T Joseph 2, L Leach, McKillip, L Schlegel)
Michigan (8: Barone, Booth, Kovolski, L Leach, S Leach, McKillip, R Wanger, G Wright)
Cincinnati (7: Butscher, T Joseph, M Leach, Moscow, M Peloso, Selarnick, B Wright)
San Diego State (5: Butscher, Chumchucker, M Peloso, Steitz, B Wright)
Saint Louis (4: E Albert, D Kornfeld, E Leach, Watson)
Virginia (4: Babenzien, D Josephs, M Leach, Mahalko)
Iowa State (2: Brenner, R Simon)
St. Joseph's (Crotty)
Baylor (A Cristinzio)
Memphis (Rybaltowski)
UCLA (Urban Angels)
Georgetown (Urban Angels)
Texas San Antonio (Urban Angels)
Texas Southern (Urban Angels)

Yeah, we know. It'll be nice when we actually have more real games to write about.

Cool stat

Here's a weird-but-fun stat for people who like weird-but-fun stats: in the past four years before this season, 14 teams seeded 7 or better in the NCAA tournament had been among the 50 slowest-paced teams in the country and also had one of the 150 easiest non-conference schedules (stats from kenpom.com). Among those 14 teams, an amazing 12 of them lost early to a team seeded 3 or more spots below them (e.g., 7 losing to a 10 is 3 spots below):

2010 Notre Dame, 6-seed lost to 11-seed in round of 64
2010 Marquette, 6-seed lost to 11-seed in round of 64
2010 Pittsburgh, 3-seed lost to 6-seed in round of 32
2011 Texas A&M, 7-seed lost to 10-seed in round of 64
2011 Cincinnati, 6-seed lost to 3-seed in round of 32**
2011 Wisconsin, 4-seed lost to 8-seed in round of 16
2011 Pittsburgh, 1-seed lost to 8-seed in round of 32
2012 Notre Dame, 7-seed lost to 10-seed in round of 64
2012 Michigan, 4-seed lost to 13-seed in round of 64
2012 Wisconsin, 4-seed lost to 1-seed in round of 16**
2013 Notre Dame, 7-seed lost to 10-seed in round of 64
2013 Kansas State, 4-seed lost to 13-seed in round of 64
2013 Wisconsin, 5-seed lost to 12-seed in round of 64
2013 Georgetown, 2-seed lost to 15-seed in round of 64

** doesn't meet pattern

So, this season we were looking to see what teams met these criteria and the answer was Cincinnati (5-seed lost to 12-seed in round of 64) and Syracuse (3-seed lost to 11-seed in round of 32). That raises the count to 14 early losers out of 16 teams meeting the criteria.

Does it mean anything? Who knows. But next year when you're looking to fill out your Elite Eight or Final Four, you might want to check it out.

Don't say we never did anything for you.

Not so Sweet 16

Another 32 contestants lost their national champion in the tournament's first weekend, thanks to Syracuse (picked by 14); Kansas (12); Wichita State (5: Fitch, Karlsruher, Lenok 2, Marshall, L Schlegel); and Villanova (George B). This brings the total of championless entrants up to 48, a full 47% of our group.

Kansas and Syracuse also cost 164 entrants one of their Elite Eight (82 each) and 110 entrants one of their Final Four (59 Kansas and 51 Syracuse). The 65 and 31 who picked Wichita State (into the Elite Eight and Final Four, respectively) means that only two (2) of our six most popular Elite Eight choices remain (Florida and Arizona), and only one (1) of our four most popular Final Four choices (just Florida). That's pretty lame, even for us.

Villanova (36 E8, 11 F4), Creighton (36 E8, 10 F4), and St. Louis (16 E8, 4 F4: E Albert, D Kornfeld, E Leach, Watson) didn't do anyone any favors, either. Unorthodox Elite Eight choices that teased by winning a game but no more include: North Carolina (chosen by 4: DeLauro, Jr., Lenok 2, Rybaltowski, Serri); Gonzaga (T Cristinzio, J McAtee, B Wright); Harvard (Corey); Memphis (Rybaltowski, who also took Memphis into his Final Four); North Dakota State (Urban Angels); Pitt (Isdaner); and Texas (Selarnick).

Out there Final Four selections that still have a chance include: San Diego State (5: Butscher, Chumchucker, M Peloso, Steitz, B Wright); Virginia (4: Babenzien, D Josephs, M Leach, Mahalko); Iowa State (B Brenner, R Simon); and Baylor (A Cristinzio).

The demise of Wichita State and North Dakota State means the Urban Angels entry has zero (0) Elite Eight teams remaining after the first weekend of the tournament. Since Urban Angels chose four Final Four teams that did not appear anywhere in his/her/their Elite Eight, he/she/they still has/have UCLA alive as a Final Four team.

A decent 39 of our contestants managed to get one Wild Card point: 33 for UNC; 2 (M Kleiman, J Whiteside) for Gonzaga; and 1 each for Harvard (Urban Angels); Mercer (Sciarabba); Pitt (Crotty); and Stephen F. Austin (George B). Fifteen entrants got 6 Wild Card points (with the possibility of more): the 14 who chose UCLA and M Josephs, who took Baylor.

J Donadio, Jr. still sits atop the leaderboard with 203 points, 13 ahead of non-paying entry ESPN Bracketology (190). Another six entrants are within 5 points of second place (S Adams (189); M Leach (189); L Donadio (188); Baumgarten (187); S Smith (185); and C Whiteside (185). Urban Angels (114), B Wright (126), and Steitz (128) trail the field by at least 18 points. Full standings may be found by clicking the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Have Mercer

Duke's loss to Mercer deprives 15 entrants of their Champion, 46 entrants of one of their Final Four and 75 entrants of one of their Elite Eight. Cincinnati going down robbed T Joseph of his champion, 14 people of one of their Elite Eight, and Butscher, T Joseph, M Leach, Moscow, M Peloso, Selarnick, and B Wright of a Final Four team.

That's pretty bad, but not as bad as the five people (Case, Gorenstein, Lenok 2, M McAtee, Templeton) who took NIT participant SMU into the Elite Eight. Others who took uninvited teams into the Elite Eight include Kovolski (Boston U) and T Cristinzio (Southern Mississippi), plus a couple others (to be discussed later). Others among us who took teams into the Elite Eight who didn't make it to the first weekend include Baumgarten, B Brenner, S Leach, R Simon (all four of whom took Ohio State), Crotty, J McAtee (both of whom took St. Joseph's), D Kornfeld, Steitz (both of whom took Oklahoma State), T Joseph 2 (New Mexico), and Booth (Xavier). Crotty also took St. Joe's into his Final Four.

Special mention goes to A Cristinzio, who selected both first round loser Delaware and uninvited Clemson into his Elite Eight. But that isn't even close to the most dazzling performance of the year (maybe the decade, possibly of all time). For those who were near-blinded by Urban Angels' slate of at-large selections, please shield your eyes from the following:

Urban Angels' Elite Eight: Wichita State, Boston U, Chattanooga, Houston, New Mexico State, NC-Ashville, NC Central, and North Dakota State.

Urban Angels' Final Four: UCLA, Texas Southern, Georgetown, and Texas-San Antonio.

OK, you can open your eyes now.

FWIW

While not strictly related to the contest, one of our commissioners recently authored an article for a Duke web site about a rarely spoken about but key factor that influences which teams make or don't make the Final Four.

Please click the above link if you're interested. We promise it won't lead to an erectile dysfunction ad.

At Larger than Life

NC State won their play-in game tonight and will officially join the 64-team bracket (as will Albany). Which is news to the 97 of us who didn't pick the Wolfpack into the field. Yes, just 6 of us (Babenzien, Hammer, M Pogach, Selig 1, Selig 2, Watson) were wise enough to foresee NC State's inclusion in the field. Similarly, only 7 of our contestants (B Brenner, Chumchucker, Corey, Gorenstein, Sanders, Selig 1, Steitz) envisioned Dayton as an at-large team (as opposed to the location where NC State played tonight), and only 12 had the guts to pick Nebraska.

On the other side, the NIT team with the most votes from our bunch is SMU, in which 97 of our entrants vainly gave their vote of confidence. We also put our misplaced faith in Minnesota (71), St. John's (39), Missouri (39), Florida State (21), and St. Mary's (20). Less loved but no less a waste of a vote were SEC teams Ole Miss (17), Georgia (14), and LSU (11), along with Georgetown (15), Southern Mississippi (11), Toledo (10), UTEP (8), West Virginia (7), and Richmond (7).

Individual recognition goes to Steitz, who selected Ohio U, Princeton, Towson, Bradley, Indiana, Hawaii, and Incarnate Word, all at large, and also spent three of his slots on Horizon League teams (Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Cleveland State).

But in one of the greatest at-large slates ever conceived in this contest, we bow down to Urban Angels, who chose as at-large teams American (got points for that one), Texas Southern (ditto), Auburn, Boston College, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Charleston Southern, Drexel, Jacksonville, James Madison, LaSalle, Loyola Marymount, Notre Dame, Missouri State, Sacramento State, Seattle, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Penn, Indiana State, CS-Fullerton, Houston, Texas State, Texas-San Antonio, and Abilene Christian. Just typing that list sends chills up and down our fingers. Hail, Urban Angels, we are not worthy.

More fun tomorrow.

Wild, Wild South

The award for highest seeded wild card goes to the 14 people who chose UCLA, the 4-seed in the South. The runners-up in the same competition were the six people who chose VCU, the 5-seed in the South.

See the trend here? Three of our top six most popular wild cards came from the South Region, along with two other selected wild cards, meaning that one or more persons chose the #4, #5, #7, #9, and #12 Southern seeds as their wild card. And that's pretty impressive, considering that the #1, #2, #3, and #6 seeds in the South were in the forbidden AP Top 25, so nobody could take those teams...

Whoa there, Cowboy, not so fast. We couldn't help noticing that one nefarious entrant attempted to illegally select the 1-seed in the South, Florida, as his wild card, despite the Gators' position as #3 in the AP Top 25 in question. It is our understanding that this particular individual prefers to remain anonymous, and we respect that. Though of course we don't respect it enough not to shout his name out to anybody who'll listen. Thus it is that we hereby out Watson as the scofflaw in question, the wild card criminal who selected an illegal, immoral, and otherwise no-chance-we're-counting-it wild card.

We're not sure which bothers us more, the idea that Watson thought he could sneak an illegal wild card past us or the fact that he took the 3rd ranked team in the country and was not the contestant who chose the most highly ranked wild card. No, that honor goes to A Cristinzio, who tried to slip Arizona by us, #2 in the AP Top 25 at the time the pool was posted.

Not to be outdone by his kin, T Cristinzio also chose an illegal wild card, going with #15 Michigan. Rounding out the Commissioner's Most Wanted list were Crotts, who took #10 Cincinnati, and Parisi who selected #9 Michigan State.

Within the bounds of the law, if not common sense, were four entrants who chose wild cards who didn't even get invited to the NCAA tournament. And while these four probably also wish to remain anonymous, we all know the odds of that are approximately the same as the odds of any of these folks getting any wild card points, right? So, say hello to M Wanger (Florida Gulf Coast), Steitz (Indiana), L Schlegel (St. John's), and Babenzien (Green Bay). For all the good it did them, they might as well have chosen Florida.

Our most popular wild card was North Carolina, the 6-seed in the East. And, for full disclosure's sake, there were seven people who chose Oklahoma, the 5-seed in the West, and thus tied for 2nd place in the wholly fictional competition referred to in the first paragraph of this post.

The full list of legal wild card choices follows here:

North Carolina (taken by 33), E6
New Mexico (15), S7
UCLA (14), S4
Oklahoma (7: Colleran, Hahn, Isdaner, T Joseph 1, T Joseph 2, Serri, G Wright), W5
Oklahoma State (7: Gorenstein, Hammer, D Kedson, L Leach, Lenok, Millan, Rybaltowski), W9
VCU (6: Blane, Case, Corey, Lenok2, M Pogach, Templeton), S5
Gonzaga (2: M Kleiman, J Whiteside), W8
Massachusetts (2: Baumgarten, Steinhardt), M6
Delaware (B Wright), E13
Baylor (M Josephs), W6
Harvard (Urban Angels), E12
Kansas State (Sanders), M9
Pittsburgh (Crotty), S9
St. Joseph's (McKillip), E10
Stephen F. Austin (George B), S12
Mercer (Sciarabba), M14
Florida Gulf Coast (M Wanger), oops
Indiana (Steitz), oops again
St. John's (L Schlegel, oopsies
Green Bay (Babenzien), oopsarama

More fun tomorrow. See ya.

And they're off...

The bracket's built and the game is on. We'll bring some analysis tomorrow.

For now, congratulations to J Donadio, Jr. for winning the prize for leading at the selection of the field. With 197 points, JDJ holds a 10 point lead over L Donadio and Baumgarten (each having 187 points), and to illustrate just how big that is, there are 19 entrants within 10 points of 2nd.

Our current bottom three are Urban Angels (113), B Wright (126), and Steitz (128). Full standings may be found here or by clicking the Standings link on the right hand side of the page.

Conference Champions are IN

The last five conferences were decided, and the winners were:

Atlantic 10: St. Joseph's (chosen by 4: Booth, Gorenstein, M Josephs, B Whiteside)
ACC: Virginia (chosen by 7: Bracketology, Colleran, Hahn, D Josephs, L Leach, Marshall, Steitz)
Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette (chosen by 6: Baumgarten, B Brenner, Jr., J Donadio, Sr., D Kedson, M Leach, Rybaltowski)
SEC: Florida (chosen by 86)
Big 10: Michigan State (chosen by 64)

J Donadio, Jr. remains in the lead with 98 points, followed by E Albert, L Donadio, and Packman, each with 91. Mired at the bottom is L Leach, with 56, preceded by Sanders, with 58. Full standings may be found here or by using the link on the right hand side of the page.

We'll be back after the field is chosen.

Almost There

Fourteen more conferences awarded their automatic bids:

America East: Albany (chosen by nobody)
Conference USA: Tulsa (chosen by zip)
Big East: Providence (chosen by nada)
Big West: Cal-Poly (selected by zilch), a team with a 10-19 record coming into the Big West tourney
PAC-12: UCLA (liked by 7: S Adams, Corey, J Donadio, Sr., Kovolski, M Leach, Lenok, Lenok 2)
Big 12: Iowa State (picked by 8: Booth, Chumchucker, N Donadio, Gorenstein, M Leach, Quint, Steinhardt, R Wanger)
SWAC: Texas Southern (chosen by 9: Blane, Crotty, J Donadio, Jr., M Josephs, E Leach, P Leach, Serri, Warner, J Whiteside)
MAC: Western Michigan (taken by 20)
Mountain West: New Mexico (selected by 44)
WAC: New Mexico State (favored by 76)
AAC: Louisville (liked by 75)
MEAC: NC Central (chosen by 80)
Big Sky: Weber State (honored by 90)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (envisioned by 97)

Five more conferences will be decided tomorrow:

Atlantic 10: VCU (17) vs. St. Joseph's (4: Booth, Gorenstein, M Josephs, B Whiteside)
ACC: Duke (46) vs. Virginia (7: Bracketology, Colleran, Hahn, D Josephs, L Leach, Marshall, Steitz)
Big 10: Michigan State (64) vs. Michigan (13)
SEC: Florida (86) vs. Kentucky (17)
Sun Belt: Georgia State (71) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (6: Baumgarten, B Brenner, Jr., J Donadio, Sr., D Kedson, M Leach, Rybaltowski)

J Donadio, Jr. remains in first place, with 82 points, followed closely by E Albert, L Donadio, and Packman, each with 77, and S Adams, DaLaura, Jr., and Dye, each with 74. At the bottom of the standings stands (or, we suppose, "sits" might be more apropos, or maybe "lies prone with his hands covering his face in shame") L Leach, with 40 points, fewer than half the leader. Glad that the previous sentence wasn't about them are Steitz, Sanders, and B Brenner, Jr., with 44 each, and B Brenner and B Wright, with 47. Full standings may be found by clicking on the "Standings" link on the right hand side of the page.

Just one more day until the bracket is announced. Get a good night's sleep.

You Chose... Poorly

So far, 13 conference champions have been decided. One was Harvard in the Ivy -- a league with no conference tournament -- that had a two game lead with three games to play the day the pool was due (though that didn't stop Fitch, L Leach, S Leach, and M Paston from picking Yale), leaving 12 conferences with a champion we didn't know in advance.

Of those, the Big South didn't have a favorite among our entrants, although the team with the most votes (Coastal Carolina, with 27) did win the conference championship. Still, with only 27 out of 103 entrants picking Coastal, it's hard to say we did well as a group. Here's how our most popular picks fared in the other eleven conferences:

Atlantic Sun: Mercer (65) won the conference
Colonial: Delaware (67) won the conference
Summit: North Dakota State (84) won the conference
WCC: Gonzaga (85) won the conference
MVC: Wichita State (99) won the conference
MAAC: Iona (71) -- oops...
Patriot: Boston U (77) -- oops...
Southern: Davidson (84) -- oops...
OVC: Belmont (85) -- oops...
Northeast: Robert Morris (87) -- oops...
Horizon: Green Bay (89) -- oops...

That's right, so far our overwhelming favorite has won a grand total of 5 out of 11 conferences (45.4%)(not counting leagues in which we had no favorite or were decided before we cast our votes). The other six? Well, oops.

But there are a bunch more conference champions to be decided, so maybe we'll make a comeback, right? Right?

Not so much.

Another 14 conferences crown champions tomorrow. But even before the final's been played, we've lost:

Conference USA: Southern Mississippi (50) -- oops...
SWAC: Southern (47) -- ineligible -- AND Alabama State (44) -- oops...
Big West: Cal-Santa Barbara (60) -- a really big oops, as Cal-SB lost in its first conference tournament game to 7th seeded Cal-Poly by a score of 69-38...
America East: Vermont (78) -- oops...
Big 12: Kansas (88) -- oops...
Atlantic 10 (final on Sunday): St. Louis (75) -- oops...

The other nine conferences pit our favorite against (in most cases) underdogs so far under they've been classified as a different species:

AAC: Louisville (75) vs. Connecticut (0)
Big East: Creighton (62) vs. Providence (0)
Big Sky: Weber State (90) vs. North Dakota (2: Anania, Hammer)
MAC: Toledo (62) vs. Western Michigan (20)
MEAC: NCCU (80) vs. Morgan State (0)
Mountain West: San Diego State (59) vs. New Mexico (44) or Boise State (0) [late game]
PAC-12: Arizona (91) vs. UCLA (7: S Adams, Corey, J Donadio, Sr., Kovolski, M Leach, Lenok, Lenok 2)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (97) vs. Sam Houston State (6: J Donadio, Sr., Isdaner, L Leach, Sanders, Steitz, B Wright)
WAC: New Mexico State (76) vs. Idaho (0)

The following face off in the conferences with no remaining favorite:

America East: Stony Brook (25) vs. Albany (0)
Big 12: Iowa State (8: Booth, Chumchucker, N Donadio, Gorenstein, M Leach, Quint, Steinhardt, R Wanger) vs. Baylor (1: Rybaltowski)
Big West: Cal Poly (0) vs. Long Beach State (4: Baumgarten, B Brenner, E Leach, Steinhardt) OR CS-Northridge (0) [late game]
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (24) vs. Tulsa (0)
SWAC: Texas Southern (9: Blane, Crotty, J Donadio, Jr., M Josephs, E Leach, P Leach, Serri, Warner, J Whiteside) vs. Prairie View A&M (0)

More on who loses, tomorrow...

I Pledge Allegiance...

We are shocked, shocked I tell you, that only 17 true Patriots (or at least Patriot League followers) decided to pledge their allegiance to American, a team that crushed conference favorite Boston U (taken by 77) by a score of 55-36.

That is all.

Mary Packed a Little Punch

After yesterday's bullying and pigtail-pulling, just one "Mary" remained. But this Mary, Mount Saint Mary's, sure packed a wallop, kicking the crap out of Bob Morris (and the 87 entrants who went with Mr. Robert to win the Northeast Conference) by a score of 88 to 71. Somewhere, Templeton is smiling.

In the Horizon, the team that made Milwaukee fam... well, let's just say Milwaukee made Wright State the wrong pick. Not that any of our contestants picked either team. Gonzaga (chosen by 85) took care of business against BYU (selected by 13) in the WCC final. And in the Summit League, the North Dakota State Bison (picked by 84) overcame both IPFW (taken by 12) and IPFW's cooler nickname (the Mastodons).

Thanks to his new girlfriend, Templeton is out of the cellar, which now belongs exclusively to L Leach, with 13 points, 5 points behind B Brenner, B Brenner, Jr., and M McAtee, all with 18. Still in first are J Donadio, Jr. and P Ripley, with 40 points, just ahead of E Albert (38) and the 11 teams tied with 35. Full standings may be found using the link on the right-hand side of the page.

The only bid up for grabs tomorrow is in the Patriot League, where a couple of U's (Boston U. (chosen by 77) and American U. (taken by 17)) look for a W.

See you then.

Mary Had a Little Loss

Three more bids were decided today, and the three title games were decided by a combined seven (7) points. In the Colonial, the Blue Hens of Delaware (chosen by 67 of us) picked on a school with "Mary" in its name (in this case William & Mary, taken by only 3 of us), and won by the thinnest of margins, 75-74. In the MAAC, Manhattan (selected by 19) turned the tables and sank Iona (liked by 71), winning 71-68. And in the SoCon (a.k.a., the Southern Conference), Wofford (picked by E Albert, A Cristinzio, J Donadio, Jr., L Leach, and A Sanders) outlasted Western Carolina (picked by nobody), by the score of 56-53.

Tomorrow night, four more bids will be announced, including: the Summit League champion, which might be North Dakota State (with 84 proponents) or mabye IPFW (12); the WCC champion, which'll either be Gonzaga (85) -- who tonight beat up another school with "Mary" in its name (in this case, St. Mary's, chosen by Steitz, D Kornfeld, and A Sanders) -- or possibly the winner of tonight's late game between BYU (13) and San Francisco (2); the Horizon League champ, which whether it's Milwaukee or Wright State is guaranteed to be a team chosen by nobody we know; and the Northeast Conference champion, which could be Robert Morris (87), or conceivably could be yet another school with "Mary" in it's name, in this case Mount Saint Mary's, chosen by Templeton alone.

Templeton really could use a Mt. St. Mary's win, because right now he's mired in an eight-way tie for 96th to 103rd place (i.e., dead last), along with B Brenner, Fitch, L Leach, S Leach, Selby, M McAtee, and commissioner D Kedson, all with a measly 10 points. J Donadio, Jr. and P Ripley currently share the top spot, with 30 points.

Full standings may be found here, or by clicking the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Down Goes Quinnipiac!

In news that saddens commissioners everywhere, this is the last time this season we can legitimately type the word "Quinnipiac," as the Mighty Quinns failed in their attempt to sink Manhattan in the MAAC. We give heartfelt thanks to Anania, Barone, B Brenner, Jr., E Leach, M Leach, M Peloso, and K Ripley whose choice of the Quinnsters kept the dream alive as long as it was. Manhattan (taken by 19) will attempt to finish the job tomorrow against Iona (favored by 71).

In news that saddens M Pogach, Winthrop's musical performance ended abruptly, as the little freckle-faced kid lost to Coastal Carolina (chosen by 27) in the Big South championship. In news eliciting a yawn from most contest observers, undefeated Wichita State (liked by 99) rolled over undermanned Indiana State (selected by 4) to win the MVC. In other news, Mercer (chosen by 65) earned the right to play in its first NCAA tournament since five years before we ran our first Pre-NCAA Contest, by beating Florida Gulf Coast (relied upon by 36) in the Atlantic Sun.

Delaware (chosen by 67) and William & Mary (relied upon by Urban Angels, Booth, and L Leach) advanced to the Colonial championship game. Albany (guessed by nobody) upset Vermont (foolishly favored by 78) and will face Stony Brook (selected by 25) in the America East final. Similarly, Western Carolina (cunningly connected by no one) knocked off Davidson (mistakenly taken by 84) to earn the spot opposite Wofford (chosen by 5: E Albert; A Cristinzio; J Donadio, Jr.; L Leach; and A Sanders) in the SoCon championship.

With five teams having earned bids, we now have a 17-way tie for first, with 20 points each, while at the bottom with 5 points stand Fitch, L Leach, and S Leach.

Championship Week, the sequel, starts tomorrow. See you then.

First Crimson

The team that won the imaginary prize for first team into the Dance was Harvard. The Crimson were favored by 99 of us, while Fitch, L Leach, S Leach, and M Paston unwisely went with Yale. Hot on Harvard's heels was Eastern Kentucky, chosen only by J Donadio, Jr., after the Colonels whupped heavy favorite Belmont (selected by 85).

Three more conferences will be decided tomorrow. In the fragmented Big South, Winthrop (chosen only by M Pogach) will take a break from the Music Man to battle Coastal Carolina (liked by 27). In the Atlantic Sun, relative heavyweight Mercer (taken by 65) will square off with Florida Gulf Coast (36). And in the MVC, Wichita State (chosen by 99) will put its undefeated season on the line against Indiana State (chosen by Gorenstein, M Josephs, Parisi, and Steitz).

The Horizon League is also down to two finalists, but nobody in our contest thought enough to pick either one of them. Milwaukee (chosen by, as we said, nobody) beat Green Bay (chosen by almost everybody -- 89), and Wright State (also chosen by, you guessed it, nobody) slid by Cleveland State (chosen by 9). The title game will be held on Tuesday, March 11th, same day as the Northeast Conference championship -- between Robert Morris (taken by 87) and Mount Saint Mary's (taken by Templeton only) -- and the Patriot League championship -- between Boston U (selected by 77) and American (selected by 17).

Five more conferences (America East, Colonial, MAAC, Southern, and West Coast Conference) are down to their final four, with the biggest news being that commissioners' perennial favorite Quinnipiac is still alive and was chosen by seven (7) entrants.

In the standings, we have a 98-way tie for second place, with 5 points. On the strength of his pick of Eastern Kentucky, J Donadio, Jr. sits in first with 10 points, and Fitch, L Leach, S Leach, and M Paston inhabit the cellar with a combined total of zero (0) points.

Tune in tomorrow...

First Blood

Eight conferences have started their tournaments, so it's time for our ever popular feature, "Who Already Screwed Up."

Tonight in the Atlantic Sun, everybody's darling from last season -- Florida Gulf Coast (chosen by 36) -- remained alive by outscoring hardly anybody's darling East Tennessee State (chosen by just 2, M Josephs and L Leach). Everyone else (65 in all) likes Mercer in this conference.

Last night, in the Northeast Conference and the Patriot League, three teams chosen by one or more of our contestants lost by a combined three points. That's right all three of these games were decided by a single point. The biggest disappointment for our entrants came in the Northeast, when St. Francis PA (selected by nobody) edged Bryant (selected by 11: Urban Angels, George B, Fitch, Corey, Gorenstein, Moscow, Pomerantz 1, Pomerantz 2, Steitz, Watson, and B Wright), by the score of 55-54. In some ways more interesting was the mano a mano matchup between two teams picked by a sole entrant, in which Templeton's Mt. St. Mary's topped D Kornfeld's St. Francis NY by a score of 72-71. The big favorite in the Northeast is Robert Morris (chosen by 87).

In another 72-71 contest, Army (taken by nobody) beat Bucknell (taken by B Brenner, L Leach, M Paston, K Ripley) in the Patriot League. The big favorite here is Boston University (selected by 77), followed by American (17).

There is no favorite in the Big South, at least not according to our contestants. Top vote-getters in the conference are Coastal Carolina (27), VMI (27), and High Point (26), but in what may be a first, the votes are scattered among eight (8) teams, including UNC-Ashville (10), Charleston Southern (3), Radford (3), and Winthrop (1). Oddly, the only team among the top eight seeds in this tournament that wasn't chosen by anybody (Campbell) was the one seed that lost, meaning even though we chose eight different teams, everyone's Big South champ is still alive at the moment. Even more oddly, the Big South has split itself into two divisions and named them "North" and "South," meaning there's a Big South, North and a Big South, South.

None of our entrants have picked an eliminated team in the Horizon, MVC, OVC, or WCC tournaments. Yet.

Tune in for more fun tomorrow.

Champs or Chumps?

Twenty-four years in a row. Yes, twenty-four times, the commissioners have laboriously sifted through many and various entries to determine the single team our contestants have anointed as the squad most likely to star in the slo-mo version of "One Shining Moment" and come away with the ever-coveted NCAA championship trophy. We view it as an honor, a twenty-four (and counting) times-in-a-lifetime opportunity to glimpse the inner workings of the serious college basketball fan's mind as he (or she) stares into the future and gives his (or her) informed opinion as to which college team is best in the land.

What measure or system do our contestants use? What magic is employed to ferret out the answer that casual and intense fans alike, all over the nation, are striving to find? That secret is buried deep inside our collective psyche, impossible for mere commissioners to tell.

What we can tell is how often our contestants have been right. And that would be six. You heard right. Our entrants' favorite champion has actually won the tournament only six times in 24 seasons. An astonishing success rate of 25%, a batting average that in baseball would get you demoted to Des Moines in fairly short order.

Which is why a lot of people in Gainesville are shaking right now. Because this year, our contestants have placed their faith in the Florida Gators, our most popular champion with 28 votes. We've already started composing our condolence letter.

Here's the full breakdown of our contestants' choices for champion:

Florida: 28
Arizona: 18
Duke: 15
Syracuse: 14
Kansas: 12
Michigan State: 6 (E Albert, Haklar, Hammer, T Joseph 2, M Josephs, M Leach)
Wichita State: 5 (Fitch, Karlsruher, Lenok 2, Marshall, L Schlegel)
Wisconsin: 1 (Baumgarten)
Villanova: 1 (George B)
Michigan: 1 (L Leach)
Cincinnati: 1 (T Joseph 1)
Baylor: 1 (A Cristinzio)

No love for current #5 in the country Virginia but at least bubble team Baylor got on the list.

Have a great day.

Sealed With A...

Mere hours before Pre-NCAA contest entries were due, the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), in conjunction with the NCAA, inexplicably changed conference rules to let four teams that were ineligible to compete in the NCAA tournament nevertheless compete in the SWAC tournament. For whatever reason, SWAC officials declined to contact our contest commissioners to give us a heads up.

Perhaps predictably, the part of this news that surprised many of our contestants was not that these four ineligible teams, including SWAC regular season champion Southern University, would be allowed to compete in the SWAC tournament, but rather that the four teams were ineligible in the first place.

Admittedly, we indulged in a bit of hyperbole when we suggested in a previous post that more than half our entrants foolishly chose an ineligible team to win the SWAC -- that would be ridiculous, wouldn't it? In fact it was only 46% of our contestants (including at least one commissioner) who picked Southern to represent the SWAC in the NCAA tournament. So you see, we're not as dumb as some think we are.

The NCAA, in its collective wisdom, has declared that the SWAC's NCAA tournament representative will be the furthest-reaching eligible team (taking the higher-seeded team in the case of a tie). And if it's good enough for the NCAA, then it's good enough for us. So the SWAC team that participates in the NCAA Tournament will be the team for which we award the 5 points for SWAC champion.

Anyone who disagrees with the above decision is welcome to lodge an official protest with the commissioners. And to show how magnanimous we are, we'll even hold off on denying any such protest until after it is made.

Have a great day.

The Sparkle of Silver

It's the contest's Silver Anniversary, and we're off to a sparkling start.

We have over 100 entries for the first time since 2002, and almost half of those entries include a winner in the SWAC that's actually eligible to make the NCAA tournament! Good times, right?

More details later. It's finally March and the good times will keep on rolling.

25

The Pre-NCAA Contest is a quarter-century old this year.

The commissioners are even older.

So, without further ado, we're opening it up for the Twenty-Fifth Annual Pre-NCAA Contest.

Here are the rules.

Here's the entry form.

Have a great day.

Hoop D'Ville

Three games decided by a total of 15 points. That's what Final Fours should be. Rick Pitino becomes the first head coach ever to win national championships with two different teams -- first with Kentucky and now with Louisville -- but much more importantly, our contest winner is Sanders, with 295 points, followed by Steinhardt (282), who has won a prize for the second straight year, and Dye (280). Full standings may be found by clicking here or on the link on the right hand side of the page.

We had 85 entries that "counted," meaning the prizes will be 414 "credits" for Sanders, 207 for Steinhardt, and 69 for Dye, in addition to the 50 each previously earned by Biebel and Moscow. Congratulations all.

It's been a fun tournament. See you all next year.

You're It

It's always nice when a contest as old as ours gets an infusion of new blood. Competing for only the second time in pool history, the Tag Team entitled Members of DBR (240.8) has come out on top, beating out a brand new group, the Ant Farm (234.75) by more than five points. The decline of Whiteside continues, as Whiteside and his Enemies (225.0) barely edged the Ripley Believe-it-or-Nots (224.5) and the Friends of Natalini (223.0). Of course while embracing the new, we'd hate to give up the old, so we take some small comfort in knowing that the Leach Gang (213.75) has once again floundered in second-to-last place. The D'Zuro Group (215.2) spared themselves the ignominy of finishing below the Leaches, something we can't say about the Urban Engineers (193.11).

They could've chosen any school, but they chose Temple. And apparently a lot of other winners, because fans of Temple (245.0) were the best in this year's contest. Maryland (237.0) was at least better than Duke (221.33) at something. Among non-Temple Pennsylvania schools, Penn State (214.88) beat out both the University of Pennsylvania (210.5) and Villanova (205.33).

Females (223.93) came out on top of males (220.12), where pretty much everyone wants them to be. Children (240.86) thumbed their noses at their elders. Among the various species, Lawyers (221.33) couldn't beat out Humans (222.08), but at least they were better than Dogs (205.0). Angels (177.0) need to wheedle some more inside information out of their boss. Our average pool participant scored 220.79, not nearly as well as our average commissioner (234.5). Non-paying participants (214.43) once again showed they didn't pay for a reason (those who paid averaged 221.84).

Students (235.85) always think they know better than teachers (222.25), but this year they really do. Those in sales (230.0) out-thought those in IT (223.75). The unemployed (223.25) clearly have more time on their hands than those with gainful employment (214.88), but we don't know how to explain retired people (213.0). Number crunchers in the accounting world (215.8) probably aspire to be someone with a fancier financial-related title (219.5). Attorneys (212.25) can take solace in that at least they're smarter than engineers (206.17). Self-styled "provocateurs" (233.0) are just a bit cleverer than those fancying themselves a "genius (on sabbatical)" (229.0).

This year the prime place from which to pick pools was the Deep South (239.63). People in New York City (232.4) tend to have a superiority complex but at least this year they more or less backed it up. The West (232.0) bested the Midwest (226.0). Philadelphia suburbs (222.8) beat out Philadelphia urbs (213.8). Those who live in extended DelMarVa (213.8) and Western PA (209.8) should probably move.

Breaking it down further, this year's top state of mind was Tennessee (237.5). New Yorkers (232.43) got the news three hours earlier than Californians (229.0). Floridians (227.0) warmed up faster than Pennsylvanians (217.63), Virginians (216.50), or Marylanders (213.50). New Jerseyites (208.33) should find a new exit on the turnpike.

In the name game, if you want to choose wisely you should change your name to Jeff (234.0), or maybe Mike (224.5) or David (224.5). We wouldn't recommend John (213.75) or Bob (210.0).

The Final Four starts in just over 24 hours. Enjoy the games.

Rivalridiculous

"I can hear them... giggling ...as they are plotting against me!" Yes, these were the words from the troubled mind of Booth, as she prepared to do battle in the annual Whiteside Booth-bash.

Is it really paranoia if they are in fact out to get you? Whitesidekick J Butscher came into the contest talking a little trash: "Will Nancy Booth finish last? Probably."

Perhaps J Butscher might want to look up the one about kharma being a bitch, because while Booth did end up in an eight-way tie for 56th with a mediocre 218 points, among those who managed the exact same paltry total was the Butscher himself (218), as well as fellow Whitesider McKillip (also 218). Maybe J Butscher ought to stick to taunting K Butscher (208) instead.

But what of C Whiteside? Sure, coming into this year's contest he'd hammered his sister-in-law Booth ten times in the past ten years, by a whopping average of 41 points. But in 2012 his aura of invincibility took a hit. His own progeny entered the contest and both J Whiteside and B Whiteside kicked their old man's behind. Rumor had it the muttered words "beginner's luck" could be heard after the kids went to bed, but the twins simply smirked. This season, when C Whiteside attempted to dissuade ten-year-old J Whiteside from his choice of Syracuse as national champion, the young lad flat out refused his counsel.

Ever hear the one about laughing last? Apparently young B Whiteside (262) and J Whiteside (261) haven't. Both children whupped daddy for the second straight year. Even scarier for "Shabba," he only beat his annual bean bag Booth by a mere point, 219 to 218. We have not been able to verify reports that C Whiteside checked in to a cardiac ward after he saw the scoring totals.

In other grudge matches, K Sullivan once again said she didn't want to make B Peloso cry, but that didn't keep her from mercilessly trouncing her rival, 229 to 220, and forcing B Peloso to take solace in the beating of his Duke-loving wife, M Peloso (198). Sullivan also bested her husband, D'Zuro (210), and deceased mother-in-law, Haklar (219). K Ripley (213) sadly missed her modest goal of topping father R Wanger (226), brother M Wanger (241), and/or husband P Ripley (218).

In Leach World, poor P Leach (183) collapsed piteously beneath the heels of his father E Leach (236), his two daughter's, M Leach (266) and Sa Leach (226), and even the family dog, Su Leach (226).

Smaller family squabbles were settled when R Kornfeld (219) whipped D Kornfeld (182), J McAtee (196) edged M McAtee (188), R Schlegel (225) slipped by L Schlegel (219), T Cristinzio (237) clobbered A Cristinzio (165), L Donadio (256) stomped on J Donadio (185), Adams (246) pounded Coach Doc (228), D Josephs (240) flew past commissioner M Josephs (218), and G Wright (218) put B Wright (193) in his proper place. After scoring both 254 and 211, M Paston may need treatment for a bipolar condition.

Among members of DBR, Nocilla (264) won bragging rights, over ACCBballFan (256), Kedsy (251), Tommy (217), and Sporthenry (216).

Tag Team totals tomorrow.

Cuatro

Well, on Easter Sunday, a bunch of Cardinals beat the Devils. That shouldn't have been too hard to foresee, should it? With Michigan and Louisville rounding out the Final Four, we have a new leader, Smith, with 277 points, followed by Marshall (270) and Martin (269).

Depending on who wins next week in Atlanta, here's how the top three will look in our contest:

Louisville
Sanders 295
Steinhardt 282
Dye 280

Michigan
M Wanger 281
Serri 278
T Cristinzio 277
Smith 277

Syracuse
J Whiteside 301
Smith 277
Marshall 270

Wichita State
Sciarabba 333
Smith 277
Marshall 270

Look for Tag Team and Rivalry posts this week.

Shocker! (For real this time)

Honestly, who would've thought Wichita State had any chance to make the Final Four? Really? Well, who besides Sciarabba, who took Wichita as his Wild Card and basically on the strength of that one pick sits atop our leader board with 258 points? M Leach is still second, although she didn't get any points today, with 246.

The other Final Four team decided this afternoon, Syracuse, had the support of four entrants (B Whiteside, J Whiteside, Brenner, T Cristinzio), two of whom (B Whiteside, 242, and J Whiteside, 241) are now in third and fourth place, respectively. Only J Whiteside has the Orange as national champs.

The rest of the Final Four will be decided tomorrow. Louisville (chosen by 27 to make the Final Four) will play Duke (45), while Florida (41) battles with Michigan (19).

Enjoy.

Ocho

The Elite Eight is complete, with Louisville (chosen by 49 into the Elite Eight and 27 into the Final Four), Duke (74, 45), Florida (74, 41), and Michigan (51, 19) moving on. And while the 61 people who predicted Kansas into the Elite Eight are probably not so happy with the Jayhawks blowing a double-digit lead with 3:18 to go, the rest of us are more or less just sad for Florida Gulf Coast.

We have a new leader and it's not particularly close. Madison Leach, who last year finished in 92nd place, has taken control of the pool with 246 points. S Smith has surged into second, with 237 points, followed by Crotty and L Donadio, with 236 each. Full standings may once again be found by clicking the link on the right hand side of the page.

Tune in tomorrow for more.

Shocker!

What the heck, right? It's been a while since we could use that headline for an Elite Eight game. Anyway, according to our research, until tonight a #13 seed had never played against a #9 seed in an NCAA tournament game. And after LaSalle's performance this evening, one could argue they still haven't.

The only person who gave any support to Wichita State was Sciarabba, who picked the Shockers as his Wild Card and has currently ridden the Shockwave into fourth place, with 208 points, trailing third place holder Haklar (209) and our current co-leaders, Biebel and Moscow, both with 213. Both Haklar (UCLA) and Moscow (Gonzaga) have lost their champions, though. Full standings, incomplete though they are with only half the Elite Eight decided, may be found by clicking the link on the right hand side of the page.

Our entrants once again flaunted their knack for jinxing their favorite for national champion (only six of our 24 favorites have won the title, a dismal 25% showing), as Indiana (favored by 28 to win it all) went down hard against Syracuse (favored only by J Whiteside). Some of us (23 to be exact) did get behind the Orange as an Elite Eight team, and four contestants (Brenner, T Cristinzio, B Whiteside, J Whiteside) picked Syracuse into the Final Four. The team Syracuse will play to see who goes to Atlanta will be Marquette, picked by only three to get to the Elite Eight (Haklar, Sa Leach, K Ripley) and by only Haklar to be one of the last Four standing.

In the West, Wichita State will match up with Ohio State, which was chosen by nine to reach the Eight (Brindisi, Huffnagle, Hymowitz, D Kedson, M Kline, M Leach, Moscow, Sciarabba, Selarnick) and three to make the Four (Hymowitz, M Kline, Moscow).

Which means, if you like to add things up, that the four teams already in the Elite Eight received a combined total of 35 votes for the Elite Eight and eight (8) votes for the Final Four (plus one Wild Card nod).

So it's pretty much par for the course in our contest. If tonight's games were any indication, look for Oregon (chosen by only cbabs and Haklar into the Elite Eight and nobody into the Final Four) and Florida Gulf Coast (chosen by nobody to do nuthin') to make some noise tomorrow.

Sweet, part two

When it came to Elite Eight, Final Four, and champion last year, our entrants' four most popular choices ended up as the four #1 seeds, and our next four most popular choices came in as #2s. Not so much this year. While our top two 2013 favorites for all three end-of-tourney honors both got #1 seeds (Indiana and Gonzaga, although of course one of those top two isn't even playing any more, so we're not sure how proud we should be on that front), after that our group and the selection committee didn't quite see eye to eye.

Whether that divergence says something about the committee or something about our contestants, we decline to venture an opinion. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see how much our gang disagreed with the seeding:

Our top Eight:

-----Team-----	Elite 8	Final 4	Champs
#1 Indiana	95	82	28
#1 Gonzaga	78	43	14
#2 Duke	74	45	10
#3 Florida	74	41	12
#3 Michigan State	65	35	6
#1 Kansas	61	29	3
#2 Miami	58	58	7
#4 Michigan	51	21	5

So if our entrants ruled the world (how's that for a scary thought), #2 Duke and #3 Florida would have had #1 seeds, and #3 Michigan State and #4 Michigan would have been awarded #2s. On the other hand:

-----Team-----	Elite 8	Final 4	Champs
#1 Louisville	49	27	8
#2 Georgetown	39	21	3
#4 Syracuse	23	4	1
...
#2 Ohio State	9	3	1

Which means we'd have awarded top overall seed Louisville a lousy #3 seed and given #2 Ohio State a lowly #5.

We've already mentioned how 18 of us have already lost their champions. But our overall favorite, Indiana (with 28 votes) remains and is the only team in the hunt with more than a dozen supporters. Of course, in this contest our top overall choice has only actually ended up as champion in 6 out of 23 years (26.1%), so I wouldn't go printing up those Hoosier t-shirts just yet. The complete tally for our choices of champions:

-----Team-----	votes	-------------------who?---------------------
Indiana	28
Gonzaga	14	Urban's Angels, Booth, K Butscher, Hahn, M Josephs, M Kleiman, Mahalko, J Moscow, M Paston 1, K Ripley, L Schlegel, K Sullivan, Watson, B Wright
Florida	12	Alberts, Biebel, Harlan, D Josephs, Karlsruher, D Kornfeld, R Kornfeld, Leace, Paston 2, B Peloso, Sciarabba, Warner
Duke	10	Colleran, Crotty, J Donadio, D Kedson, Nocilla, Rubinson, R Schlegel, selig, R Simon, B Whiteside
Louisville	8	Barone, Baum, cbabs, Dye, E Leach, Rybaltowski, Sanders, Steinhardt
Miami	7	Brenner, J Butscher, Cristinzio, Eberly, Kaelin, Pogach, P Ripley
Michigan State	6	B Brenner, Brindisi, D'Zuro, Fitch, P Leach, G Wright
Michigan	5	Atkinson, T Cristinzio, Steitz, Serri, M Wanger
Kansas	3	Su Leach, M McAtee, C Whiteside
Georgetown	3	Bland, Broder, M Leach
Ohio State	1	Hymowitz
Syracuse	1	J Whiteside
UCLA	1	Haklar

A grand total of 56 contestants got at least one Wild Card point, for choosing St. Louis (27), Minnesota (11), VCU (9), UNC (4), Iowa St (2), Creighton (1), Illinois (1), and Wichita St (1). Only one entrant was clever (or wild, if you will) enough to choose a Wild Card that garnered more than one point, and that was Sciarabba who has gained six points and counting from his selection of Wichita State.

For someone who lives in California, it must seem as if most of the country is part of the Midwest. Which might at least begin to explain how Rubinson managed to have five of his Elite Eight (Duke, Michigan State, Louisville, Oklahoma State and St. Louis) and three of his Final Four (Duke, Michigan State, and Louisville) in the Midwest Region. Five others matched Rubinson's Final Four feat (Brenner, 3 in the E; Warner and M Wanger, 3 in the S; Booth and Adams, 3 in the M), while thirteen confused contestants managed to pick four of their Elite Eight in one region (Bi Acchione (S); Fitch (M); McKillip (S); Brindisi (M); Serri (M); J Whiteside (E); J McAtee (S); K Sullivan (S); Rybaltowski (M); M McAtee (E); Booth (M); Sa Leach (E); T Cristinzio (S)).

No seed of 13 or lower has ever made the Elite Eight, so we can perhaps forgive our contestants for completely ignoring #13 LaSalle and #15 Florida Gulf Coast when choosing the Elite Eight and Final Four. Two entrants picked #12 Oregon into the Elite Eight (cbabs, Haklar). We mentioned earlier than only nine of us liked Ohio State into the Elite Eight (Brindisi, Huffnagle, Hymowitz, D Kedson, M Kline, M Leach, Moscow, Sciarabba, Selarnick) and just four were bold enough to pick the Buckeyes into the Final Four (Hymowitz, M Kline, Moscow). Arizona was even more popular, with 14 votes for the Eight and four for the Four (Barone, Sanders, Selig, Templeton). To round out the Sweet Sixteen, Marquette had the support of three (Haklar, Sa Leach, K Ripley) and one (Haklar).

Full breakdowns for the Elite Eight and Final Four, showing exactly who picked what, are available by clicking the links in this sentence. As always, current standings may be found by clicking the link on the right hand side of this page.

Next week: Tag Team tally and Rivalry posts. Enjoy the games.

Sweet

Well, it took longer than we expected to regain our vim, and at our age perhaps vigor is a bit too much to hope for. Still we're back and so is the Sweet Sixteen. So here goes, with the first of two really long posts to cover the events of the weekend.

Let's start with a look back. We've had four days of games since our last report. But even before the games, some entrants were at a teensy disadvantage, since there were eight (8) Elite Eight choices that didn't even make the tournament: George Mason (Urban's Angels), Arizona State (Cristinzio) Baylor (Urban's Angels), BYU (Urban's Angels), and Florida State (Steitz).

Thursday started innocently enough, unless of course you were one of the 28 contestants who spent an Elite Eight choice on New Mexico (17) or Oklahoma State (11). Or worse, one of the seven who wasted a Final Four choice (M McAtee, M Paston 1, Sciarabba, M Peloso took New Mexico; Brindisi, Rybaltowski, K Ripley took Okla St). Another seven entrants saw one of their Elite Eight teams dash against the rocks: Grossman (Missouri), Serri (Missouri), D Kedson (Pitt), Mahalko (Pitt), Urban's Angels (Bucknell and St. Mary's), Atkinson (Davidson), and Rybaltowski (UNLV).

So after the first day of the tournament, three contestants had already lost two of their Final Eight (Rybaltowski had Oklahoma State and UNLV; Barone had New Mexico and Oklahoma State; Cristinzio had Arizona State and Oklahoma State). And the self-proclaimed Urban's Angels were down an unimaginable five out of Eight (G Mason, Baylor, BYU, Bucknell, and St. Mary's).

The Angels would lose a sixth Elite Eight team on Friday (Notre Dame), but at least they still had Gonzaga and Butler. Um, oops. And thus Urban's Angels became the first entrant in pool history to lose his or her entire Elite Eight by the first Saturday of the tournament. Needless to say (although we'll gleefully say it anyway), Urban's Angels also had a ceiling of zero (0) Final Four teams at the same moment in time (for history's sake, the Angels' Final Four consisted of the religious quartet of Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Butler, and BYU).

Of course, Urban's Angels weren't the only contestants to gnash their teeth on Friday. That was the day Georgetown bit the dust, taking with it the hopes of the 39 who chose the Hoyas into the Elite Eight, the 21 who fearlessly predicted a Georgetown Final Four berth, and the three who went all the way out on the limb for Georgetown as national champion (Bland, Broder, and M Leach).

Also walking around with their frown right side up were the backers of Wisconsin (11 into Elite Eight; Sciarabba into Final Four); Kansas State (Atkinson, B Brenner, Brindisi, Eberly, P Leach, C Whiteside into Elite Eight; B Brenner into Final Four); Notre Dame (Urban's Angels, B Brenner, B Whiteside into Elite Eight; Urban's Angels, B Whiteside into Final Four); Cincinnati (Steitz, Moscow into Elite Eight; Steitz into Final Four); UCLA (Haklar into Elite Eight, Final Four, and Champion); Villanova (Cristinzio into Elite Eight); and NC State (Bland into Elite Eight).

Everyone else could at least savor the feeling of accomplishment in knowing their Elite Eight and Final Four choices all made the second round (and, no, we're not calling the round of 32 the "third" round just because the NCAA decided to schedule a few play-in games). That feeling probably evaporated pretty quickly when Gonzaga (chosen by 78 into the Elite Eight and 43 into the Final Four) got knocked off by Wichita State (chosen by absolutely nobody except Sciarabba as a Wild Card). Butler going down didn't please the 16 and 5 (Urban's Angels, Dye, Hymowitz, M Kline, Sa Leach) who liked them into the Elite Eight and Final Four, respectively, as well as the few and probably not very proud who went out on a limb for St. Louis (Atkinson, Brindisi, Haklar, Rubinson, L Schlegel, Watson into Elite Eight, Watson into Final Four), Memphis (Canning into Elite Eight, Booth into Elite Eight and Final Four), or Colorado State (Fitch, Warner into Elite Eight). Sunday was only a not-so-fun day for those who liked North Carolina (Booth, Cristinzio into Elite Eight) or Minnesota (D'Zuro into Elite Eight).

With Gonzaga's demise, 14 entrants (Urban's Angels, Booth, K Butscher, Hahn, M Josephs, M Kleiman, Mahalko, J Moscow, M Paston 1, K Ripley, L Schlegel, K Sullivan, Watson, B Wright) joined Haklar, Bland, Broder and M Leach in looking forward to 75% of the tournament without a chosen champion to root for.

That's it for part one. Part two of the blog post that wouldn't end will be offered up tonight.

Wow

Hey, I just got back from the Wells Fargo Center, where I watched #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast beat #2 seed Georgetown and join #14 Harvard, #13 LaSalle, three #12s (Oregon, Cal, Ole Miss), probably a #11 (Minnesota is currently winning by 12), almost certainly a #10 (Iowa State is winning by 24), and two #9s (Wichita State and Temple) in the upset column. And as I write this, #1 Kansas is only beating #16 Western Kentucky by three points. Brackets are broken, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria!

I'd really intended to go over everything and detail who got clobbered in the pool and all that, but I've been working on press row all day and I'm just too tired. So sometime tomorrow I hope to return and roast all your selections with my usual vim and vigor, OK?

So Wild

We spoke about Wild Card selections that were so wild they were downright illegal, but we'll gladly mention those again: the Wild Card picks of Frame (Duke), Day (Ohio State), and M Wanger (Marquette) have been invalidated.

What about the other 96 contestants? Well, by far the most popular Wild Card in this year's contest is St. Louis, chosen by 27 entrants and graced with a #4 seed. #5 seeds UNLV (13 votes) and VCU (9 votes) were the 2nd and 4th most popular selections, respectively, and #11 seed Minnesota (11 votes) was exactly in the middle.

Six contestants' selections were so wild the committee didn't even invite the selected team to play in the NCAA tournament: Four people chose Virginia (Hahn, Leace, McKillip, Warner) and one each took Weber State (B Wright) and Loyola-Maryland (Kaelin). B Peloso is the only entrant whose Wild Card was selected but lost before the bracket pools are due, having chosen Tuesday night loser Middle Tennessee. Interestingly enough, B Peloso's wife, M Peloso, has St. Mary's -- the team that eliminated MTSU -- as her Wild Card. That must have been some living room in the Peloso household yesterday evening.

No other Wild Card got support from more than five contestants. Here's the list:

#6 UCLA: 5 (D'Zuro, Steitz, D Kedson, Kovolski, Selig)
#8 North Carolina State: 5 (Fitch, M Kline, Selarnick, R Simon, R Wanger)
#8 UNC: 4 (Su Leach, Martin, Pogach, Smith)
#10 Cincinnati: 3 (Cristinzio, R Kornfeld, Sanders)
#11 St. Mary's: 3 (D Kornfeld, J McAtee, M Peloso)
#9 Missouri: 2 (Brindisi, Rybaltowski)
#10 Iowa State: 2 (B Brenner, Grossman)
#7 Creighton: 1 (Watson)
#7 Illinois: 1 (Moscow)
#9 Wichita State: 1 (Sciarabba)
#10 Oklahoma: 1 (Sa Leach)
#11 Belmont: 1 (Rubinson)

So have a wild evening. The real games begin tomorrow at high noon.

Lunardi Rules!

Some of you may remember that Joe Lunardi, the resident Bracketologist at ESPN, used to play in this pool. You know, before he became rich and famous. Interestingly enough, he never did all that well, and when you're competing against a group that can't beat a hypothetical monkey flipping imaginary coins, that's saying something. But in deference to our most famous pool participant, if we can remember to do so we key in Lunardi's bracket predictions as of the day the contest entries were due. Perhaps predictably, the "ESPN Bracketology" entry has yet to make the top 20.

Until this year.

Yes, the overall acumen of our contestants has sunk so low that our current leader is ESPN Bracketology, with 203 points. Put another way, if you knew absolutely nothing (and we've decided to be nice by using the word "if") and you'd simply filled in your entry by copying Lunardi's bracket on the day the pool was due, you'd be $100 richer right now.

Fortunately for our gallivanting group of gallant prognosticators, ESPN Bracketology is a non-paying entry, and so this year's prize for having the most points as of the selection of the field will be split between Biebel and Moscow, each of whom has 202 points and has earned $50 for that feat. Just behind the leaders are D'Zuro (200) and Marshall (199), each of whom has earned $0 for not being quite good enough.

Moscow and Biebel lead a group of eight (8) members of our contest who managed to select more than half of the conference champions correctly, as each of them guessed right on 17 out of 31 (54.8%, a solid F in Middle School). Also with 17 correct were cbabs, M Kline, and Marshall. Last year's leader at this point, Steinhardt got 16 of 31 right (an even solider F), as did D'Zuro and Kaelin.

On the opposite side of the spectrum (or is it called the Wachovia Center now?), seven of our entrants were correct on fewer than 10 of their conference champ predictions. "Leading" the way is Pogach, who managed to accurately select a mind-numbing seven (7). The others, all with a similarly impressive nine (9) out of 31: J Whiteside, Rubinson, Fitch, J Donadio, Cristinzio and Canning. The bottom of the standings currently belongs to Cristinzio and Frame, each with 135 points. Full standings, as always, may be found by clicking the link on the right hand side of the page.

Every year at least one of the Committee's at-large selections flummoxes our group. This year, though we were all over NIT participants Kentucky (picked by 89) and Virginia (72), only eight of us saw the diamond in the rough known as Boise State (chosen only by Crotty, J Donadio, Moscow, Paston 1, M Peloso, Pogach, B Whiteside, J Whiteside).

That same Boise State team will be participating in a play-in (aka, the new "first round") game tomorrow.

Enjoy the games.

Almost there

With 30 conference champs decided, the winner is... The Monkey. Mississippi (chosen only by Cristinzio) beat Florida in the SEC, meaning that a majority of our entrants chose the correct conference champion in a pathetic 13 of 31 (the remaining conference tournament features a Wisconsin team selected by six vs. an Ohio State team favored by five). That's 42% for our entrants and 58% for the proactive primate.

In the standings, Moscow has surged into the lead with 95 points, just ahead of Biebel (94).

Stay tuned. We'll be back after the selection of the field.

Two more for the lesser ape*

Well, Wisconsin (selected by six: Brenner, Huffnagle, Leace, M McAtee, Sciarabba, and Templeton) sent our favorite Big Ten choice Indiana (taken by 63) packing on Saturday, and the Badgers move on to the Big Ten final today, against Ohio State (picked by five: D Kedson, Sa Leach, Moscow, Rubinson, Selarnick). And in the Southland, our contestants' favorite Stephen F. Austin (selected by 74) fell to ignominious defeat at the hands of Northwestern State (chosen by 18).

That's two more for the monkey, who also Saturday took credit for Oregon (liked by 24); Albany (7: J Broder, Frame, Gorenstein, Steitz, M Josephs, J McAtee, Selig); Pacific (8: Alberts, Booth, Canning, Crotty, Steitz, M Leach, R Simon, G Wright); New Mexico State (7: Booth, B Brenner, cbabs, Steitz, Sa Leach, M McAtee, Sanders); and North Carolina A&T (0). The ACC will also spill onto the monkey's side of the ledger after either Miami (30) or UNC (3: M Leach, Sciarabba, J Whiteside) win today.

That's 15 for the smarmy simian, out of 31 total conferences. Unless you count Louisville (picked by 37), which was not taken by a majority of our entrants but was our top votegetter in the Big East, in which case the monkey is already officially better than our (mostly) human contestants. And of course we think the coin-flipping mammal should take the credit for a conference champion chosen by barely more than a third of our group, but in deference to those who foolishly disagree with us, there are two additional conferences still in play.

The Atlantic 10 championship pits St. Louis (another non-majority but top votegetter with 46) and VCU (liked by 17). And the SEC features overwhelming favorite Florida (84) against little Ole Miss (just Cristinzio). If either VCU or Mississippi win then nobody can argue with the monkey's superiority.

Except possibly M Kline, who has already chosen 17 correct conference champions and sits atop our leaderboard with 85 points, just ahead of Moscow, who has 84 points but only 15 properly selected conference champs. Within spitting distance of the leaders are Biebel, Frame, and E Leach, all with 81 points, and cbabs and J McAtee, both with 80.

At the other end of the standings, Pogach has correctly chosen a mere six (6) conference champions and languishes at the bottom with just 42 points. Sa Leach (52) and Cristinzio (53) are better, but not by much.

Full standings may (as always) be found using the link on the right hand side of the page.



* - Yes, we realize the monkey is not really a lesser ape. You're just going to have to live with our little literary licenses. And our alluring alliterative abilities as well.

More monkeying around

Well, as we reported Wednesday, of the 14 conferences that have had winner's decided, the majority of our contestants have been correct in seven and incorrect in seven. We also noted that on Wednesday the top two votegetters in the MEAC (Norfolk State (76) and NCCU (18)) both lost their first tourney games, leaving Savannah State (5) as the only MEAC team still alive on which any of our entrants took a chance. Predictably, Savannah State lost its next game, leaving it guaranteed that the MEAC winner will have been picked by nobody associated with our contest.

Perhaps just as predictable, the very next day the very same thing happened in the WAC. The only difference being the top two teams that lost in their first games were named Louisiana Tech (picked by 79) and Denver (picked by 12). There are currently three teams alive in the WAC. New Mexico State (selected by 7) will play the winner of Texas-San Antonio and Texas-Arlington, neither of which was selected by any of us.

Then today our choice in the ACC, Duke (chosen by 62), went down in its first game as well. Big West favorite Long Beach (liked by 83) and Pac 12 top choice Arizona (46) at least waited until their conference semifinals before bowing out.

So here's what we have at this moment in the 17 conferences in which the champions will be crowned this weekend:

ALREADY CLINCHED FOR THE MONKEY:
America East: Albany (7) vs. Vermont (8)
ACC: Miami (30) vs. NC State (2); UNC (3) vs. Maryland (0)
Big West: UC-Irvine (4) vs. winner of Cal Poly (1)/Pacific (8)
MEAC: Morgan State (0) vs. NC A&T (0)
Pac 12: UCLA (20) vs. winner of Oregon (24)/Utah (0)
WAC: New Mexico State (7) vs. winner of UTSA (0)/TX-ARL (0)

MONKEY WINS ON A TECHNICALITY
(no team in these conferences was chosen by a majority of us, but the top votegetter is still alive)
Atlantic 10: St. Louis (46) vs. Butler (31); Massachusetts (0) vs. VCU (17)
Big East: Louisville (37) vs. Syracuse (19)

COULD GO EITHER WAY
Big 12: Kansas (75) vs. Kansas State (13)
Big Sky: Montana (63) vs. Weber State (36)
Big 10: Indiana (63) vs. Wisconsin (6); Michigan State (17) vs. Ohio State (5)
Conf USA: Memphis (89) vs. Southern Miss (10)
MAC: Akron (88) vs. Ohio (10)
Mountain West: New Mexico (62) vs. winner of UNLV (24)/Colorado State (10)
SEC: Florida (84) vs. Alabama (1); Ole Miss (1) vs. Vanderbilt (0))
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (74) vs. Northwestern State (18)
SWAC: Southern (68) vs. Prairie View A&M (0)

So if you're scoring at home, well, then you're probably not reading this. Nevertheless, the monkey now has at least 13 out of 31 conferences, 15 if you count the Atlantic 10 and the Big East, conferences that had no majority. That means for the monkey to beat our pool participants, just one more conference upset has to happen (three more if you don't count the A10 and the Big East).

We know what we're rooting for.

Shock the Monkey

Bucknell took the Patriot League tonight, and since 88 of us thought that was going to happen, it gives our majority 7 out of the 14 conferences decided at this point, bringing us even with the mythical monkey flinging coins and who knows what else.

As we've noted previously, however, the America East conference is a victory for the wayward primate, since when they finally get around to deciding the winner in that conference it'll be Albany (chosen by 7 of us) facing off against Vermont (chosen by 8).

Well, add the MEAC to the monkey's side of the ledger, because in their very first game, both top seeded Norfolk State (picked by 76) and second fiddle NCCU (selected by 18) went down. Hard. So while there are six MEAC teams still alive in their tournament, only one of those teams got any votes from our entrants, and that was Savannah State, the favorite of five contestants (Alberts, Booth, M Peloso, Pogach, R Simon).

The standings look more or less the same as they did before (since all the leaders chose Bucknell). About the only visible change is we've been told that Biebel 1 and Biebel 2 are really just Biebel. We guess he was just stuttering or something.

Three more

If Long Island won its third straight NEC championship, but nobody picked them, does the three-peat still make a sound? Fortunately, we don't have to answer that classic philosophical question, since Gorenstein and M Leach were clever enough to pick the Blackbirds.

Also winning tonight were Valparaiso (chosen by 73) and South Dakota State (63). So our majority has been correct on 6 of the 13 conference champions decided so far, a nifty 46% and not quite as good as the mythical monkey.

M Kline maintains his lead, with 9 correct conference champions for 45 points. K Biebel 1, K Biebel 2, Brindisi, Moscow, and G Wright are tied for second with 40 points (8 correct champs), and Adams, Frame, Gorenstein, and B Wright are currently in third with 38 points (7 champs).

At the bottom of the standings, Pogach has been right in just two (2) conferences for 13 points. Next in line for the distinction of dubiosity are Fitch (18 points) and Cristinzio (19).

Full standings are available using the link on the right hand side of the page.

Five more dancers

Five more conference champs have been decided. And our contestants guessed right in two of the five, giving the contest majority a whopping four out of nine conference tournaments correct (five of ten if you count Harvard in the Ivy, once again matching the monkey with a silver dollar). Of course, that score goes down if you include the two conferences in which both finalists were chosen by fewer than 10 of us, which would bring our overall tally to four out of 11 (a fine 36% accuracy; so much for matching the monkey).

Tonight's champions include Sun Belt (hill)topper Western Kentucky (selected by exactly none of us), Colonial champ James Madison (chosen by four of us: Brindisi, Gorenstein, M Josephs, Leace), King of the MAAC Iona (picked by 11: Adams, Baumgarten, Gorenstein, Harlan, D Kedson, M Kline, M Paston 1, M Paston 2, Sanders, Serri), Southern maven Davidson (90), and WCC top dog Gonzaga (93).

New standings may (as always) be found on the link at the right of the page.

Our new leader is M Kline, who has seven correct champions out of ten, for 35 points. Just behind the leader are Frame and B Wright, both of whom have six correct champions and 33 points.

The Summit semifinals were also played this evening, and it looks like tomorrow will feature an old fashioned Dakota hoedown, with South Dakota State (chosen by 63) taking on North Dakota State (picked by 24). Also tomorrow will be the Horizon final, with Valparaiso (73) against Wright State (0), and the NEC final, in which Mt. St. Mary's (0) will face Long Island (2: Gorenstein, M Leach).

Some fun.

Give me Liberty...

...or give me Florida Gulf Coast. Once again our entrants have proven that when it comes to predicting conference champions we can compete with a monkey flipping coins.

So far this season, 14 conferences have played tournament games. And so far, the majority of our contestants are dead wrong in at least seven (7) of those 14. To our credit, we were correct in the OVC (Belmont was chosen by 81 of us), and still have a shot in six other tournaments that are still going on.

But first, let's take a look at our many errors. Leading the way is Liberty, chosen by none of us, a team that beat our favorite Charleston Southern (taken by 56) in the Big South. The Sun Belt championship won't be played until tonight, but since the championship game participants are Florida International (chosen by 0) and Western Kentucky (also chosen by 0), it's safe to say that's two goose eggs for the rabble.

The MAAC also plays its championship game tonight, but while none of our contestants chose Manhattan, at least there were 11 of us who took Iona (Adams, Baumgarten, Frame, Gorentstein, Harlan, D Kedson, M Kline, M Paston 1, M Paston 2, Sanders, and Serri). The NEC finishes its tournament tomorrow, pitting Mt. Saint Mary's (selected by none of us -- see the trend here) against Long Island U. (taken by only Gorenstein and M Leach). The America East final won't happen until Saturday, but when it does it'll feature Albany (chosen by 7: Broder, Frame, Gorenstein, Steitz, M Josephs, J McAtee, Selig) and Vermont (liked by 8: Bi Acchione, Atkinson, Colleran, Cristinzio, Pogach, Sanders, Templeton, Yolles).

Two tourneys that have finished also finished with champions chosen by the few, rather than the many. In the Atlantic Sun, Florida Gulf Coast (picked by 28) beat out Mercer (69). And in the MVC, Creighton (40) outlasted Wichita State (52).

As we said earlier, six other tournaments have started in which the majority of us still have a chance. In the Colonial, Northeastern (liked by 69 entrants) faces James Madison (favored by only four: Brindisi, Gorenstein, M Josephs, Leace). In the Horizon, Valparaiso (73) takes on Wright State (another "zero hero"). In the Patriot League, Bucknell (88) hopes to hold on against Lafayette (yet another "goose egg gamer"). In the Southern conference, it's Davidson (90) against Charleston (5: Bi Acchione, Eberly, Gorenstein (seems like we're typing his name a lot, doesn't it?), Hahn, D Kornfeld). In the WCC, Gonzaga (93) tries to tame St. Mary's (6: Canning, Cristinzio, D Kedson, Kovalski, Pogach, Yolles). Finally, the Summit semifinals feature South Dakota State (63), North Dakota State (24), Western Illinois (9), and Oakland (4).

The Ivy League, the only conference that doesn't hold a tournament, also crowned its automatic qualifier, and not surprisingly it was Harvard (chosen by 91), the team that was winning the Ivy when the pool was due. Thus spoiling the always-unlikely scenario spun by dreamers like Alberts, Canning, Cristinzio, Harlan, Steitz, D Kornfeld, Leace, Sa Leach, and B Whiteside.

With five conference winners in the books, we have standings, as well as a ten-way tie for first (among Biebel 1, Biebel 2, Blatt, B Brenner, Crotty, M Kline, Moscow, Selarnick, B Wright, and G Wright) with 20 points. Just behind the many leaders are eight more entrants with 18 points (Frame, Grossman, D Kedson, B Peloso, Rybaltowski, Templeton, Warner, Yolles). Down at the bottom, six contestants have a meager 8 points (Hymowitz, Leace, Sa Leach, Sanders, Watson, B Whiteside), and eleven more are almost as bad (with 10 points: J Broder, J Donadio, Harlan, Kaelin, Karlsruher, M Kleiman, D Kornfeld, M Leach, M McAtee, Pogach, Sciarabba). Full standings may be found at the link on the right of this page.

Tonight, conference champs will be determined in the Colonial, MAAC, Southern, Sun Belt, and WCC. Happy watching.

Well, isn't this embarrassing?

After all the clever remarks about how easy it is to know which teams are ineligible, here's one we missed: regular season SWAC winner Texas Southern is not allowed to participate in either the SWAC tournament or the NCAA tournament due to various NCAA violations. That's apparently news to 24 entrants, including commissioner D Kedson.

And in fairness to the contestants we called out in our earlier post, it's only right we list those who failed to ferret out the truth about Texas Southern, too: Adams, Alberts, Baumgarten, Booth, B Brenner, Butscher, Coach Doc, J Donadio, Gorenstein, Harlan, Huffnagle, D Kedson, P Leach, Su Leach, M McAtee, M Peloso, Pogach, Rubinson, Rybaltowski, Sanders, Serri, Templeton, G Wright, and Yolles.

That is all.

Not such a High Point

Two more days have passed, giving us two more days of bad predictions to discuss. The biggest surprise of Thursday/Friday was the demise of High Point in the Big South. Well, at least it was a surprise to 15 of our contestants. Also out are Jacksonville (Colleran, Gorenstein) and Stetson (Sa Leach) in the Atlantic Sun, Eastern Kentucky (Booth, J Donadio, Frame, Hymowitz, Su Leach, J McAtee, and Watson) and Tennessee State (Brenner) in the OVC, and BYU (Brenner) in the WCC.

Brenner deserves mention for losing three of his conference champions (High Point, Tennessee St., BYU) in two days, all before the first conference championship has even been decided. Also deserving similar mention are J Donadio (unhappy with High Point, Eastern Kentucky, Towson) and Sa Leach (low about High Point, Stetson, Eastern Kentucky). Down two already are Nocilla (High Point, Ark-Pine Bluff), Rubinson (High Point, Quinnipiac), Gorenstein (Jacksonville, Coastal Carolina), Booth (Eastern Kentucky, UNCA), and J McAtee (Eastern Kentucky, UNCA) (along with Bi Acchione, M Kline, M Wanger, Grossman, Steitz, Cristinzio, Leace, and M Peloso, all of whom were mentioned in our previous post).

The first two dancers will be chosen today. In the Atlantic Sun, Mercer (chosen by 69 of us) squares off against Florida Gulf Coast (chosen by 28), and in the OVC it's Belmont (81) vs. Murray State (11).

Tune in tomorrow for more fun, fun, fun.

The Madness Begins

According to ESPN, "week one" of Championship Week is upon us. How can something named "Championship Week" have more than one week in it? Well remember, these are the same people who when Joe Lunardi updates his page, flash his latest guesses on their news crawler as "breaking news." Kentucky moves from 'last four in' to 'first four out.' Oh, my.

But obviously we all have to live with the foibles of the Worldwide Leader. After all, we wouldn't want either Dennis Rodman or North Korea to threaten a nuclear attack against us, would we?

Tuesday marked the first conference tournament games of 2013. So it also marked the first failures for our contestants, as 17 entrants lost a conference winner on the opening day. UNC-Ashville got clobbered by Longwood in the first round of the Big South tournament, contrary to the predictions of Bi Acchione, Booth, Grossman, Steitz, M Josephs, M Kline, D Kornfeld, M Leach, Su Leach, J McAtee, L Schlegel, R Simon, and M Wanger, while also in the Big South, Coastal Carolina (chosen by Coach Doc, Gorenstein, Karlsruher and Sanders) was whipped by Liberty. Day two of week one of the Week was marked by 24 additional contestants with punctured dreams, 23 of whom picked Bryant in the Northeast conference (though unfortunately they are too numerous to conveniently mention individually). Finally, much to the commissioners' pronunciative delight, someone also picked Quinnipiac (Rubinson).

In an impressive display of anti-acumen, Bi Acchione, M Kline, and M Wanger have each in the first two days lost two of their conference champions (all choosing both UNCA and Bryant). If you count those who chose ineligible conference champions, then you can add Grossman, Steitz, Cristinzio, J Donadio, Leace, and M Peloso to this illustrious group.

Tonight we have conference tournament games from the Atlantic Sun, Big South, MVC, OVC, and WCC. Make sure to watch that ESPN news crawler!

Things that make us happy, things that make us shake our heads

Well, they're pretty much the same thing, aren't they?

First, only on the happy side, the game is afoot! It's March and that's just about the happiest month in sports. No head shaking about that. So let's move on.

We tried to be helpful, we really did. We blogged about illegal Wild Cards. We sent e-mails. We posted Rules. We alerted the local authorities to be on the lookout. But apparently nothing we can do will keep some entrants from thumbing their noses at us when it comes to their Wild Card selections.

As usual, however, we get the last laugh. This year, verbal spankings go to M Wanger, who chose Marquette as his Wild Card (#18 in the AP Top 25 posted with the Rules) and Day, who chose #13 Ohio State. The Scofflaw of the Year award goes to self-proclaimed "Urbans Angels" member Frame, who tried to slip #2 Duke by us with her Wild Card selection. Nice try, Angel.

Our well-timed warning post also cautioned would-be entrants against choosing teams that are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, and we specifically mentioned Connecticut, although you wouldn't know it from the at-large selections of Bland, Brenner, B Brenner, Cristinzio, Eberly, Grossman, Steitz, Kaelin, D Kornfeld, McKillip, P Ripley, Selig, Watson, M Wanger (two mentions already -- it might end up being a long contest for this guy), and B Wright, all of whom selected the ineligible Huskies.

Also mentioned in the article we linked were Arkansas-Pine Bluff (chosen to win its conference by Baum, Eberly, Steitz, Henry, Leace, S Leach, and Nocilla) and Towson (chosen to win its conference by Atkinson, Barone, J Donadio, and Huffnagle).

Not mentioned in that particular article (but easily found in a simple google search) is UCF, who the NCAA banned from the tournament due to violations, much to the chagrin of Frame, Hahn, Steitz, Kaelin, M Kline, and B Wright. A little trickier to find (but still not very hard) are teams that are eligible to be selected at-large but weren't invited to play in their conference tournament (because they're leaving next season for another conference). So it's not a total loss for those who chose Boston University to win the America East conference (Baum, Grossman, M Leach, S Leach, and M Peloso) or Georgia State in the Colonial (Cristinzio) -- we wish you all good luck with the committee.

The funny thing is, other then possibly UConn, none of the above selections were mainstream. So it's somewhat ironic that eight people (Baum, Cristinzio, Eberly, Grossman, S Leach, Kaelin, Steitz, and B Wright) picked multiple upsets that were not only improbable, but downright impossible. Steitz gets special mention for selecting three such teams (UConn, UCF, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff).

Finally, we are delighted to announce the return of the famed "Wamser Maneuver," named after a contestant who, in the early days of the pool, made waves by choosing one or more teams into his Final Four that he did not choose into his Elite Eight. Wamser's technique has long since evolved to the point where he now selects one or more teams into his Final Four without even entering the contest, but we still call the move by its original moniker. Whatever we call it, however, it's been quite a few years since somebody felt empowered enough to try it, and this year we salute Coach Doc for thinking enough of Georgetown to call them a Final Four team, but not thinking enough of the Hoyas to predict them into the Elite Eight.

Some fun. More to follow.

Get Smart

Anyone who has ever watched Maxwell Smart bumble across the television or the big screen, or even listened to the old Toto song, knows the value of 99.

Well this year, we're proud to announce that 99 contestants have dipped their toes into the pool. That's two more than last year, and it's always good to move in the right direction. We don't yet know how many are paying entrants, but we do know whoever wins will have bested almost a hundred other college basketball fans.

So here we go. Good luck to all.