Nor'easters

We've been playing this contest for 29 years, and after watching 2018 conference tournaments for almost a week, at least one thing is clear: our entrants haven't gotten any better at it.

Six conference tournaments are complete, six automatic bids have been handed out. Our contestants had a majority consensus in five of the six. Guess how many we got right? If you guessed zero, sorry you're wrong. But if you guessed one, you'd be right on the money.

56 of us (91.8%) chose Loyola-Chicago to win the MVC, and the mob got it right. But that's as far as the good news goes. Only 11 of us (18%) liked Lipscomb in the Atlantic Sun, just 7 of us reached for Radford in the Big South (11.5%; Biebel 2, Biebel 3, Blane, Leo Leach, Mash Leach, Templeton, M Wanger), another 7 of us eyed Iona in the MAAC (11.5%; George B, Baumgarten, D'Zuro, D Kedson, Mash Leach, K Sullivan); and a measly two mulled for Michigan in the Big 10 (3.3%; Leo Leach, Steinhardt). In the OVC, we didn't have a majority consensus, but our top pick Murray State (30 votes (49.2%)) did happen to win, beating Belmont (chosen by 26).

It won't get any better after the Horizon League finishes its tournament, since our favorite, Northern Kentucky (taken by 43 (70.5%)), has already lost to Cleveland State (selected by exactly nobody). The 8-seeded Vikings face Wright State (picked by 12 (19.7%)) tonight for all the Horizon marbles.

Four other conferences finish this evening, and with a Nor'easter bearing down on us as we speak, two of them appropriately have a "Nor'east" theme: In the Colonial League, the College of Charleston (38; 62.3%) faces Northeastern (19; 31.1%); and in the Northeast conference, famed composer Wagner (50; 82.0%) will attempt to play Long Island U (0; 0%). The other two are in the WCC, which pits Gonzaga (46; 75.4%) vs. BYU (0; 0%), and in the much anticipated battle of the Mount Rushmore State, also known as the Summit League championship, in which South Dakota State (46; 75.4%) plays South Dakota (14; 23.0%) for Badlands bragging rights. That last game will be held in Sioux Falls, nearly equidistant between the teams' home campuses. Also, the state fish of South Dakota is the Walleye.

If you happened to be impressed by Leo Leach accurately choosing both Radford and Michigan, our advice is don't be. Those two teams were two of ten Leo Leach prognostications with which almost nobody agreed: Florida in the SEC (7); Texas Tech in the Big 12 (5); Jacksonville State in the OVC (4); Texas-Arlington in the Sun Belt (3); Colgate in the Patriot League (2); Creighton in the Big East (only); Davidson in the Southern Conference (only); and Maryland-Baltimore County in the America East Conference (only). All right, if he wins some of those you can be impressed. But for now, at least, his pair of astute predictions has propelled Leo Leach all the way up into 13th place.

Leo's warped sibling Mash Leach also has ten lonely predictions (Radford in the Big South (7); Iona in the MAAC (7)), Florida in the SEC (7); Georgia State in the Sun Belt (7); Mount St. Mary's in the Northeast (7); Furman in the Southern Conference (7); Western Kentucky in Conference USA (6); Texas Tech in the Big 12 (5); Southern Illinois in the MVC (3); and Seattle in the WAC (1)), and we're trying to figure which set of bold Leach picks we like better. On the one hand, most of Mash's mashups have at least some group corroboration (six groups of 7 plus a 6 and only one only; compared to just one group of more than 5 and three out-on-an-islands for Leo) and so far at least, Mash has fared better, winning four of the six conferences to sit in first place with 23 points. On the other hand, two of Mash's clever choices have already lost (Mt. St. Mary's and Southern Illinois) while Leo has yet to stumble. Overall, we think the strategy will work best for neither of them.

Other than Mash Leach's first place performance, nobody currently has more than half right, but twelve players got exactly half, and all have 18 points (except for Leo Leach, who has 15): GEORGE B, Baumgarten, Biebel 2, Biebel 3, Blane, Booth, D'Zuro, Ed Leach, Reid, M Wanger, and J Whiteside.

Full standings may be found here, or from the standings link on the right-hand side of the page.

The lights are on but... no wait, they're not

There's a power outage in Commissionerville. Which is why we haven't posted in a few days.

We're now squatting somewhere we can hijack some internet, so we plan to have a post up later today.

In the meantime, you may feast on some early standings (and the way you know they're early is that Mash Leach is winning).

Talk soon.

The game is afoot...

Well, the game isn't really a foot, now is it? But the entry deadline has passed and we have 61 entries (no idea how many of those are paying entries yet).

A few conference tournaments have started, but nobody who anybody picked has lost yet. So not much to report.

But stay tuned. Maybe the game will turn into a hand or an elbow or some other body part. You never know.

Important Safety Tip

When filling out the entry form, here's an important tip that may (or may not) keep you from being ridiculed on the blog:

Once you choose your conference champions and at-large teams, and press the "Done" button for both, the bottom section is automatically populated with the teams you've chosen, allowing you to choose your Elite Eight, Final Four, Champion, and Wildcard. So far, so good.

If, however, you make a change to one of the top sections (for example, if you decide to pick Maryland-Baltimore County as an at-large team instead of North Carolina), the bottom section is re-populated. BUT the check boxes aren't cleared. So, if you make the change to the top sections AFTER you've filled out your bottom section, the box you originally checked, e.g., to signify Duke as national champion might now be checked for Houston.

How can you fix this? Three ways: Either (a) don't make changes to the top sections after you've filled in the bottom section; (b) if you want to make changes to the top sections, uncheck all boxes in the bottom section before you do then fill in the bottom again; or (c) after you make the late changes, double-check the bottom section to make sure you says what you want it to say (and if it doesn't, fix it).

If you fail to do any of the above before you click the "My Entry is Complete" button, you still have an option: on or before the due date, go to the View Entry page, and either view or print-and-view your selections to make sure your entry is what you meant it to be. If it isn't, email the commissioners, explain the problem, and ask them to change your entry manually.

Or you can just accept the ridicule for selecting Houston as your champion.

Happy pool-picking.

It's Showtime

Think back, a mere year ago. The Trump presidency had just begun. Villanova was still the defending national champion.

Yeah, I know, it feels like that was 29 years ago. But what was actually 29 years ago was the very first Pre-NCAA Contest, in 1990. This year, then, will be the 29th annual Contest, and I just know you want a piece of that.

So here's your chance. The game is afoot. Just start clicking links below, and you'll be well on your way.

RULES

ENTRY FORM

See you soon!

Thyme wounds all Heels

Kind of a fizzle of an ending to a Tournament filled with fireworks. But somebody had to win, and this year it's the University of North Carolina.

Much more importantly, here are the winners of our contest:

First place: Naumgarten (339)
Second place: Sciarabba (320)
Third place: S Adams (317)

We believe it's the first time somebody who was unable to spell his own name has won the contest. At the bottom of the standings, Booth (175) stayed out of last place, finishing three points ahead of Myers (172).

Combining those above (well, not Booth or Myers) with R Wanger, who won the prize for being in first place immediately after selection of the field, and we have our winners. Congratulations, all.

See you next year.

A rasher of Rivals

The parent/child relationship is a complicated one, fraught with debates over who knows best. Over the course of life, the winner of those debates tends to slide from one side to the other, much to the chagrin of whichever side is on the losing end.

This year, we had eleven instances of framing the debate in quantitative terms, and parents took eight (73%): Coach Doc (291) over S Adams (277); D Josephs (265) over M Josephs (242); R Schlegel (272) over L Schlegel (262); P Leach (269) over both Sam Leach (245) and Mad Leach (245); R Wanger (301) over both M Wanger (255) and K Ripley (289); and C Whiteside (262) over J Whiteside (204) (although C Whiteside also lost to daughter B Whiteside (280)). The only parents who didn't taste victory this season were longtime entrants J McAtee (229) and E Leach (259), who despite both playing in every Pre-NCAA contest (or almost every contest -- we didn't actually go back and re-check every season), still couldn't beat out sons M McAtee (260), and P Leach (269), respectively. We'd also note that depending on tonight's result, either S Adams (UNC) or K Ripley (Gonzaga) will come out ahead of her Dad.

In a year where possibly all three winners could be female, it's not surprising that it's the Year of the Sister. Gonzaga or not, K Ripley (289) bested brother M Wanger (255). And B Whiteside (280), despite claiming to have "completed this pool in 5 minutes on Sunday because I wanted to go outside and play," trounced her brother J Whiteside (204), as well as her father. B Whiteside went further in her claims, going on to say that despite spending just a few minutes on her selections, she'd "still do better than most of the contestants," and she did, currently standing in a tie for 15th place. J Whiteside noted that while he might lose this round, he's still seven minutes older and six inches taller. In our only instance of two sisters competing against each other, the competition between Sam Leach (245) and Madison Leach (245) naturally ended in a tie.

Also not surprising is the dominance wives displayed over husbands this year: Da Dye (292) over Do Dye (265); K Sullivan (259) over D'Zuro (251); and the ubiquitous K Ripley (289) over P Ripley (224). The only husband who can apparently claim the pants is B Peloso (288), who trounced his Duke-loving wife M Peloso (213), just one year after losing to his spouse by 50+ points.

B Peloso's fierce rivalry with Sullivan inspired D'Zuro's impassioned plea that, "Even though Democrats and Republicans cannot get along, I fervently hope that Kate Sullivan and Bobby Peloso may achieve pool peace in our lifetime." Well, we hope D'Zuro lives a little longer, because we suspect the trash talk will only escalate after either B Peloso completes his 288 to 259 thrashing of his arch-rival (if UNC wins) or Sullivan ekes out a comeback for the ages (299 to 288, if Gonzaga wins).

Celebrating the 15th anniversary of his own rivalry with Millan, Karlsruher guaranteed victory over the misspelled Italian city. What's more, he backed it up, 259 to 239. Millan (239), in turn, noted that mutual friends T Joseph (254) and Brenner (250) "better step it up this year," and they did, both finishing ahead of him (though neither of them bested Karlsruher (259)). In another group of supposed buddies, Sciarabba (280) easily dispatched Gorenstein (237) and Serri (201).

M Wanger (255) invited two amigos from the Dominican Republic, Tharp (230) and Avila (215), then had the bad form to beat them both. Among readers of DBR, Biebel (248, 227, and 212) finished both ahead of and behind D Kedson (244) and Rubinson (226). Among multiple-entry contestants who have trouble spelling their own names, Naumgarten (299) beat out Baumgarten (287).

Among minor children, B Whiteside (280) took the competition over L Schlegel (262), Mad Leach (245), Sam Leach (245), and J Whiteside (204). Among pets, L Leach (269) put down Surprise Leach (222), though neither beast could best their owner (P Leach (269)).

Of course, we saved the most bitter rivalry until last. C Whiteside (262) may have been unable to beat out his 14-year old daughter, but he had absolutely no problem this year with Booth (175). C Whiteside also slipped past workplace rival Butscher (260). For her part, Booth set her sights on another rival, Mantz, who foiled her efforts neatly by neglecting to enter the contest.

Tag Team topography

Back in the day, the Nova Gang was the original Tag Team in this contest, consistently competitive for the Tag Team title as well as having the most team members by far. We haven't heard from them for a long time but, perhaps emboldened by their namesake's national championship last season, the Gang is back.

Sort of. the Original Nova Gang's average score of 214.67 is so bad, it's more than 30 points behind the Leach Gang (244.78), and almost 17 points worse than the second-worst Tag Team (the Duke-centric DBR, which, like their favorite team, fizzled out with just a 231.40 average).

The once-proud team of Whiteside and his Enemies (236.20) also finished behind the Leaches, as did those associated with Urban Engineering (236.0), and the group who at one time lived in 12A (239.33).

But if you've gotten the idea that the Leach Gang had a particularly good year, we need to set the record straight. The Leaches weren't anywhere near the top of the Tag Team tussle. No, the competition for top Team was extremely competitive, with three Teams within a point of each other. And the winner is... the inexplicably named Anchor Down (253.0), who beat the D'Zurans (252.75) by a quarter of a point, and the Ripley Believe it or Nots (252.33) by two-thirds of a point.

Among favorite colleges (with at least two entrants rooting for them), we have an odd trend: The teams with the highest averages didn't come close to making the NCAA Tournament. Uninvited GW (293.0) and Temple (272.75) led the way, followed by Division III Ursinus (267.0) and left-out Syracuse (251.75). Duke (236.57) and Villanova (244.0) did about as well as you'd expect after their early Tourney exits. Penn State fans (240.33) got the double-whammy of both failing to make the Dance and doing poorly in the contest.

We had a contingent this year who played from the Dominican Republic (233.33), but perhaps something got lost in translation, because the only region they beat was the Midwest (229.0). Both Pittsburgh suburbs (269.33) and New York suburbs (263.75) whupped Philadelphia suburbs (252.78), though within the city limits, Philadelphia (260.83) handled New York (239.25). Those West of the Rockies (261.60) showed those South of the Mason-Dixon Line (246.80) where it's at. Among states from which multiple contestants hail, Pennsylvania (254.51) won bragging rights over New York (248.50), California (246.00), and Illinois (229.00).

In today's world it may be tough to have faith in humanity, but know at least that humans (252.45) are more deserving than lawyers (252.29). Dogs (245.50) are just getting scraps this year.

In a development that should surprise absolutely nobody, Females (257.0) came out on top of males (252.13). Once again confirming one of our favoriate old adages, children (247.20) should be seen but not seen gambling.

This year's best pool-pickin' name is Bob (269.50), who won that distinction in a healthy competition over John/Jon (265.50), David (261.67), Marc (257.00), and Mike (257.50). Less healthy were Jeff (248.50), Rick (245.50), and Kevin (243.00). If you're calling yourself Matt (235.50) or George (233.00), you don't know Jack (231.50).

Those in the computer field (268.0) and practicing attorneys (265.33) apparently both know how to rig things, albeit in different ways. Those in accounting and finance (256.27) barely beat corporate executives (256.00). Retired people (253.25) perhaps retired for a reason, while students (249.17) can maybe teach teachers (225.25) a thing or two. If you're involved in the media (245.00), in sales (235.33), or in engineering (221.25), keep your day job.

What does it say when self-professed afterlife mediums (261.00) know a lot more than the deceased (200.00) from whom they purportedly get their information? Probably less than the fact that the average contestant (252.25) significantly outscored the average commissioner (243.00).

Chicks dig Zags

We know that one of four teams will be the 2017 NCAA Champion. So we have four scenarios to discuss:

Scenario 1: "Winnah, winnah, Duck dinnah"

If Oregon wins it all, here's who our winners will be:

(1) R Schlegel (312)
(2)(tie) L Leach (309)
(2)(tie) P Leach (309)

Out of the money: R Wanger (301)

Scenario 2: "If a team wins the national championship, and nobody picked them, does it still make a sound?"

If South Carolina takes the title, as predicted by nobody in our contest, here's who our winners will be:

(1) R Wanger (301)
(2) Naumgarten (299)
(3) J Donadio (297)

Out of the money: Da Dye (292); Harlan (292)

Scenario 3: "If the shoe fits"

Evidence suggests that Naumgarten is actually long-time entrant Baumgarten, who apparently (unintentionally) misspelled his own name. Fitting, if the national champion turns out to be a school that committed the worst academic fraud in the history of the NCAA, and still hasn't been punished. So if UNC steals the championship, here's who our winners will be:

(1) Naumgarten (339)
(2) Sciarabba (320)
(3) S Adams (317)

Out of the money: Feinblatt (303)

Scenario 4: "Chicks dig Zags"

If Gonzaga gets two more wins, our top three positions will all be held by female contestants. Perhaps not surprising, but certainly a historic first in a contest that hasn't seen such an event in 28 years. Those three dominant pool-pickers will be:

(1) Harlan (332)
(2) Burch (330)
(3) K Ripley (329)

Out of the money (and male): Marshall (320)

NOTE that we haven't checked to make sure that all the winners listed above actually paid for the contest. To the extent that someone didn't pay, they will certainly be allowed bragging rights, but all prizewinners will come from among the ranks of the paid-in-full.

Six, Three, and other levels of competence

The Elite Eight contained three #1 seeds, a #2 seed, and a #3 seed. The Final Four contains two #1s and a #3. The number of our contestants who got better than five Elite Eight teams correctly can be counted on one finger: B Peloso got 6 of 8. But don't worry, twice as many of us guessed better than half the Final Four: Naumgarten and Baum, both with 3 of 4.

There were 19 contestants who got five of Eight, 28 who got four of Eight, and 20 who got just three of Eight. Five excellent entrants managed just two (2) correct Elite Eight teams: Avila, R Simon, Bud Acchione, Beibel 3, and Booth. Two contestants accurately selected exactly one (1) of the Eight: Serri and Myers.

For the Final Four, despite two #1s in the mix, 59% of us correctly picked less than half the participating teams. We had 29 pool-pickers who got exactly half (2), while 35 contestants came up with one (1) of the Four, and nine (9) entrants didn't get any (0) right at all: Biebel 3, Booth, Myers, P Ripley, M Pogach, J Whiteside, Su Leach, M Peloso, and Serri.

Moving forward, while 24 of us (32%) lost their national champion in the first weekend, only 23 of us (30.7%) have a national champion that's still playing. Nine took UNC, nine took Gonzaga, and five (Brindisi, Karlsruher, L Leach, P Leach, R Schlegel) liked Oregon. Poor little South Carolina had the confidence of nobody in our contest, though thinking about it, that probably makes the Gamecocks feel pretty good about their chances.

Cocks and Heels

The South Carolina Gamecocks (picked by nobody in our contest) made it three teams that hadn't been to the Final Four in the past 75 years. The fourth team (UNC Tar Heels, picked by 46), after beating Kentucky on a last-second shot, got there for the second straight season.

On the strength of Luke Maye's heroics, R Wanger jumped back into the lead, with 301 points. Right behind are Naumgarten (299), J Donadio (297), Dale Dye (292), and Harlan (292). Booth (175) will finish the contest three (3) points ahead of Myers (172). Full standings may be found here and by using the link on the right-hand side of the page.

We'll have posts this week on who might win the contest, Final Four and Elite Eight performance, and of course, Tag Teams and Rivals. Stay tuned.

1939

The last time Oregon made the Final Four, World War II hadn't started yet. And yet, 27 of us correctly picked the Ducks into the Final Four. The last time Gonzaga made the Final Four was never, but that didn't stop 26 of us from picking the triumphant Zags. Our favorite Final Four pick, Kansas (54 votes), didn't make it, however, making this the 22nd year out of 28 that our top pick for champion (16 of us called Kansas our champ) failed to make it to the summit.

Our new leader, K Ripley tops the charts with 289 points, one point ahead of B Peloso (288) and seven points ahead of her father, R Wanger (281). Breathing down R Wanger's neck for third place are Marshall (280) and Naumgarten (279). Full standings may be found here or by clicking the Standings link on the right-hand side of the page.

Two more teams punching their tickets tomorrow.

Buzzah Beatah

After Florida's miracle shot at the buzzer in OT, we have three SEC teams in the Elite Eight. Raise your hand if you predicted that. OK, put your hand down, nobody in our contest predicted that. Only six entrants picked as many as two: J Broder, Coach Doc, Harlan, Mash Leach, B Peloso, R Wanger. Other than Kentucky (chosen by 36) and Florida (taken by 11), no SEC team sniffed as much as a wildcard selection.

Of our top eight selections for Elite Eight, four actually made it: Kansas (70), UNC (64), Gonzaga (53) and Oregon (50). South Carolina and Xavier had a combined one (1) vote (Rubinson, who went with Xavier).

Our new leader is B Peloso, with 268 points, followed by R Wanger (261) and Marshall (260). Within striking distance are S Adams and J Donadio, both with 257, while Da Dye, Harlan, R Schlegel, Coach Doc, Burch, and K Ripley are also within a Final Four pick of the top. Booth (175) remains three points ahead of Myers (172) in the struggle to stay out of the cellar.

Full standings may be seen by employing the Standings link on the right-hand side of the page.

X-Men

A good night of basketball, with three of the four games going down to the last possession. Lots of big news, too, as Arizona tumbles but Oregon and Gonzaga survive, Rubinson looks like a genius for picking 11th-seeded Xavier into the Elite Eight, Booth climbs out of last place (now tied with Bud Acchione with 175 points, 3 points ahead of Myers), and with Michigan falling by a single point, Pogach loses his dream of getting five Final Four teams.

In the most meaningless standings of the year, Marshall has leapt into the lead with 240 points, just ahead of B Peloso (238), S Adams (237), J Donadio (237), Do Dye (235), and D Josephs (235).

More fun tomorrow.

Eight, Four, and other integers

With 75 contestants and eight Elite Eight picks apiece, there were 600 Elite Eight selections made in this year's contest. A whopping 179 of those selections (29.8%) didn't make it through the tournament's first weekend. Three of our top ten choices have already bitten the proverbial dust (Villanova, chosen as Elite by 67 entrants, Louisville, taken by 49, and Duke, picked by 27).

Booth was among several who had the bad karma to choose all three of the fallen giants (Nova, Ville, and Duke) in her Elite Eight, but she also inspired awe by going with Creighton, Wichita State, and Wisconsin as three of the last eight teams standing. At least Wisconsin is still breathing. Rubinson should perhaps be commended for being the only entrant to favor 11th seeded, and still alive, Xavier into the Elite Eight. Myers and Packman win the prize for choosing a team (California) into the Elite Eight that lost to Cal-State-Bakersfield in the first round of the NIT.

Full list of Elite Eight choices (by team) is as follows:

Kansas (70)
Villanova (67)
North Carolina (64)
Gonzaga (53)
Oregon (50)
Louisville(49)
UCLA (43)
Arizona (37)
Kentucky (36)
Duke (27)
Baylor (20)
West Virginia (16)
Florida (11)
Florida State (10)
Wisconsin (9)
Butler (8)
Virginia (8)
SMU (4: L Leach, Mad Leach, M Rybaltowski, Serri)
Cincinnati (3: J McAtee, Quint, Templeton)
Purdue (3: M Josephs, Mad Leach, J Whiteside)
Wichita State (2: Booth, L Schlegel)
California (2: Myers, Packman)
Creighton (Booth)
Michigan State (Bud Acchione)
Xavier (Rubinson)
Northwestern (R Simon)
Notre Dame (Serri)
Oklahoma State (Warner)
St. Mary's (J McAtee)
Maryland (Avila)

Ten contestants still have seven Elite Eight teams still playing: Marshall, Bill Acchione, P Ripley, Doug Dye, Blane, Brenner, B Whiteside, J Broder, standings leader R Wanger and M Pogach (who has six alive Elite Eight teams plus Michigan as his wildcard). 35 entrants have six active Elite Eight teams, and 24 have five. At the bottom of the continuum, four entrants have just four possible Elite Eight contenders: M Rybaltowski, Bud Acchione, R Simon, Templeton; and Serri joints Booth with only three.

Of the 300 Final Four selections made in our contest, 77 proved worthless (25.7%), with the vast majority of those assigned to Villanova (42), Louisville (18), and Duke (11). Gutsy picks that are working out so far include Baylor (Sam Leach, Su Leach, Myers, M Peloso, M Pogach), West Virginia (Beibel 2, Biebel 3, Marshall, Rubinson), Wisconsin (Booth, Myers), Florida (Mash Leach, B Peloso), and Butler (Feinblatt, P Ripley).

Full list of Elite Four choices (by team) is as follows:

Kansas (54)
North Carolina (46)
Villanova (42)
Oregon (27)
Gonzaga (26)
UCLA (25)
Louisville(18)
Arizona (17)
Kentucky (13)
Duke (11)
Baylor (5: Sam Leach, Su Leach, Myers, M Peloso, M Pogach)
West Virginia (4: Beibel 2, Biebel 3, Marshall, Rubinson)
Florida (2: Mash Leach, B Peloso)
Florida State (2: Sam Leach, Sciarabba)
Wisconsin (2: Booth, Myers)
Butler (2: Feinblatt, P Ripley)
Virginia (2: R Simon, R Wanger)
Wichita State (Booth)
Cincinnati (Quint)

After being great at choosing conference champions and lousy at guessing at-large selections, Avila is making pool-picking great again by having all four of his Final Four selections still in play. Joining him were 11 other entrants with all four of their Final Four selections in the running: P Ripley, Brenner, T Cristinzio, M Josephs, C Whiteside, M Pogach, L Leach, Feinblatt, Packman, M McAtee, Grossman). In what might (or might not, we didn't really check) be a pool first, M Pogach has five possible Final Four teams, including his wildcard choice of Michigan.

Two-thirds of our contestants (50, to the division-averse) still have three Final Four teams left, while twelve hapless entrants have just two. Booth, who had the bad luck to pick Villanova, Louisville, and Duke as Final Four participants, is clinging to the hope that 8-seed Wisconsin will bring her enough glory to climb out of last place.

Champeeeeens

We've had 27 Pre-NCAA contests before this season, and in all 27 of them there was a team that got the most votes from our contestants for national champion (although one year there was a tie at the top). Of those 27 selections, a grand total of six (6) actually became national champion (in the year where two teams tied, which was last year, one of our two favorites lost in the first round to a #15 seed and the other lost in the Elite Eight, but we're only counting them as one muffed prediction). That's a 22% success rate for the math-challenged among us.

So for those of you who want to increase your odds of winning in Vegas, we suggest betting against Kansas, our top vote-getter for champion in this year's contest. Though with a mere 16 votes, we didn't have as much misplaced confidence as we usually do; no idea if that makes it better or worse for the Jayhawks.

Twenty-four of us (32%) lost their champion in the tournament's first weekend, including the 12 who voted for Villanova, the 6 who liked Louisville (Baumgarten 2, Fitch, D Josephs, Su Leach, Steinhardt, J Whiteside), and the 5 who dared with Duke (Bud Acchione, Biebel 3, D Kedson, Rubinson, Tester). Plus R Simon, who picked Virginia.

The full list of selected champions is as follows:

Kansas: 16
Villanova: 12
UCLA: 9
UNC: 9
Gonzaga: 9
Louisville: 6 (Baumgarten 2, Fitch, D Josephs, Su Leach, Steinhardt, J Whiteside)
Oregon: 5
Duke: 5 (Bud Acchione, Biebel 3, D Kedson, Rubinson, Tester)
Wisconsin: Booth
Virginia: R Simon
Kentucky: M Pogach
Baylor: M Peloso

Kansas plays Purdue on Thursday night, in a potential upset special.

Mild Cards

Back in the day, a pool contestant just got wildcard points if their team made the Sweet 16, and then only if they walked to school, eight miles straight uphill in the snow. Well, if those rules were in force today, the only entrant we'd be talking about would be M Pogach, who has Michigan, 6 wildcard points, and the promise of much, much more.

Tharp took South Carolina as his wildcard, which looks really good until you realize that the Gamecocks were ranked #19 in the AP poll accompanying the entry form, and are thus an illegal, immoral, anti-establishment, and downright unacceptable pick.

Beyond that, 51 contestants got a single wildcard point, for picking Notre Dame (23), Wichita State (10), Iowa State (10), Michigan State (5), and Northwestern (3). Fifteen entrants had teams in the tournament but got no points, for picking Minnesota (4), Dayton (4), Oklahoma State (3), VCU (2), Miami (Fla), or Florida Gulf Coast (1 each). Seven astute pool-pickers went with wildcards that didn't make the tournament, including the five who picked Syracuse (Bud Acchione, Biebel 3, Sam Leach, Millan, R Simon) and the two who picked Illinois State (M Peloso, J Whiteside).

But only M Pogach has the chance of getting any more wildcard points. Seriously, if the Wolverines keep going, M Pogach might get out of 70th place...

Avila At Large

We had an undisputed leader in picking conference champions, Avila, who got 20 right (out of 32, a whopping 62.5% success rate that would shame a D student). Only five entrants were within one correct choice of Avila (T Joseph, S Adams, Burch, J Donadio, and Marshall, all with 19), while 12 had 18 right and 9 had 17 right. Nobody else guessed more than half the conferences accurately.

At the other end of the spectrum, Booth got just 7 right (an impressive 21.9%), while Rubinson got 9, M Pogach got 10, and Mash Leach managed 11.

So Avila really had his stuff together, right? Think again. When it came to at-large selections, our conference champion savant chose all of the following: Iowa, Iona (got points for that one but wouldn't have if the Gaels hadn't won their conference), Northern Iowa, Charleston, Ball State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, South Dakota, Cal-St-Bakersfield, UNC-Asheville, Furman, Sam Houston State, Valparaiso, and Weber State.

All we can say about that is, "Wow."

With only one wild card still alive (Michigan, more on that tonight), R Wanger (211 points) maintains the slimmest of margins over Burch (210), Marshall (210), and B Peloso (208). Full standings may be seen using the "Standings" link on the right-hand side of the page.

No, no, Nova

What do 12 contestants, 42 contestants, and 67 contestants (all but Feinblatt, M Josephs, M Leach, M Pogach, P Ripley, Tester, R Wanger, and J Whiteside) have in common? They all chose Villanova (for champion, Final Four, Elite Eight, in that order), and they're all probably not so happy right now.

The defending champs are the first big fish to get hooked this tournament, despite (some might say, "because of") being our collective second-favorite champion (behind Kansas (16)), our third-favorite Final Four contender (behind Kansas (54) and UNC (46)) and our second-favorite Elite Eight hopeful (behind Kansas (70)). Ah, well, they'll always have Paris, er, Houston.

Ironically, those who benefit most from this upset are the two people at the very bottom of our standings: Booth, who took time out from being in last place to pick Wisconsin as her champion (as well as in her Final Four and Elite Eight) and Myers, who picked the Badgers into the Final Four (as well as Elite Eight). Myers picked Villanova as champion, though, so we guess that might put a damper on things for him. A total of nine entrants have Wisconsin in the Elite Eight (Bud Acchione, Avila, Booth, Naumgarten, L Schlegel, Tharp, Warner, B Whiteside).

Still six games to play today. More later.

Outstanding in their field of 68

The teams are entered and the points are tallied, and the leader after selection of the field, and winner of our $100 prize, is...

...R Wanger, with 210 points, a mere point ahead of Burch (209) and Marshall (209).

Also within an at-large selection of the leader is B Peloso (207), and just behind him are S Adams (206) and J Donadio (206). Bringing up the rear is Booth (155), comfortably behind Myers (161) and M Pogach (164). Full standings may be found here, or by using the standings link on the right-hand side of the page.

During the week, we'll break things down in more detail.

More news about ancient Greece

Well, news about Troy, anyway, which won the Sun Belt championship over Texas State in a game where neither team received a single vote from our contestants.

Doing the Trojans one better, Kent State won the MAC backed by exactly one contestant (Samantha Leach), after beating Akron (favored by 59). The aptly-named Surprise Leach was one of six entrants (Baum, T Cristinzio, Da Dye, M Josephs, Su Leach, Rybaltowski) who picked Rhode Island to win the 14-team Atlantic 10, which is noteworthy because the Rams did just that, taking out VCU (chosen by 27). And, surprise, surprise, Surprise Leach was also one of two contestants (along with Reider) to accurately predict Big 12 champion Iowa State (which beat West Virginia, chosen by Biebel 2, Booth, Karlsruher, Samantha Leach, Quint). And you might not believe it, but those two savvy picks brought Surprise Leach all the way up to a tie for 58th place.

More winners picked by fewer than half of our contestants: Duke (7: Karlsruher, D Kedson, P Leach, Millan, M Peloso, Tester, J Whiteside), which overcame Notre Dame (Steinhardt only) in the ACC; Arizona (15), which beat Oregon (34) in the Pac 12; Cal-Davis (22), which vanquished the Purple Anteaters of Cal-Irvine (43) in the Big West; North Dakota (24), which conquered Weber State (27) in the Big Sky; and New Orleans (29), which bested TAMU-CC in the Southland.

Rounding things out, Music Man character Winthrop (41) upended Campbell (0) in the Big South; New Mexico State (45) defeated CS-Bakersfield (30) in the WAC; Nevada (52) won against Colorado State (9: Biebel 2, M Josephs, M Kleiman, P Leach, Surprise Leach, P Ripley, Rybaltowski, L Schlegel) in the Mountain West; Kentucky (57) clobbered Arkansas (Templeton) in the SEC; defending champion Villanova (65) put away Creighton (Baumgarten 2, J McAtee) in the Big East; Texas Southern (65) disposed of Alcorn State (7: Baum, Booth, Grossman, M Kleiman, Millan, P Ripley, Rubinson) in the SWAC; North Carolina Central (66) made swift work of Norfolk State (8: Bud Acchione, Booth, Feinblatt, E Leach, L Leach, M Pogach, P Ripley, Warner) in the MEAC; Middle Tennessee State (67) outlasted Marshall (0) in Conference USA; Princeton (68) educated Yale (2: Grossman, Tester), after edging Penn (Quint only) in overtime Friday night in the first-ever Ivy League tournament; and finally Vermont (74) did away with Albany (0) in America East.

The only two undecided conferences are the Big 10 (Michigan (Grossman, Quint) vs. Wisconsin (20)) and the AAC (SMU (39) vs. Cincinnati (34)).

And just two hours until the full field is selected, seeded, and sent to regions. See you then

Almost there

Standings have been updated as of all of last night's games. Avila is still in the lead, with 101 points, well ahead of B Peloso (94), and even more ahead of S Adams, Burch, Marshall, and R Wanger (all with 91). At the bottom is Booth, with a paltry 34 points.

We'll have a full blog entry sometime soon this afternoon, and then another either late tonight or tomorrow before lunch.

Like flies

Since our last post, the Patriot League title was awarded to Bucknell (backed by 67) after the Bison beat Lehigh (liked by 7). No other championships were decided, but that didn't stop our contestants from being wrong a lot.

Our favorites in the big conferences have been going down like flies. In the Big 12, overwhelming favorite Kansas (59 votes) got knocked off in their first tournament game (as did our second-favorite Big 12 team, Baylor, chosen by 9). In the Big 10, top vote-getter Purdue (34) got dumped along the side of the runway by Michigan (picked by 2: J Broder and M Pogach). In the Atlantic 10, top dog Dayton (40 votes) got shoved aside by Davidson (selected by nobody). And in the ACC, erroneous favorite North Carolina (taken by 40) got put in their place by arch-rival Duke (chosen by 7 very clever individuals).

Add those to the four earlier conference champions selected by 1 or fewer contestants, and a fairly clear picture of our group competence (or lack thereof) is beginning to emerge.

OK, that's not true. It emerged a long, long time ago.

More conference champions decided tomorrow. See you then.

Holy Jackrabbits, Batman!

The latest cage match, from the Summit League, ended with L Schlegel on top, M McAtee sucking air, and the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State dancing. L Schlegel is now tied for 11th place, but still trails his Dad (R Schlegel) by 5 points.

In the Horizon League, a couple of zero heroes faced off and Northern Kentucky (picked by nobody) prevailed. In the WCC, Gonzaga (taken by 73) became the first 70+ vote team to actually win, after the spectacular flame-outs by Belmont and Monmouth. In the NEC, it was Mount St. Mary's (chosen by 51) taking home the prize.

Avila remains in first place, with 38 points, while six entrants trail by just 3 with 35 points (S Adams, Burch, Coach Doc, Marshall, R Schlegel, R Wanger). Last year's champion, M Peloso is still in last with 15 points, but at least she's joined in that ignominy by Booth, Gorenstein, M Josephs, T Rubinson, and J Whiteside (all tied with 15). Full standings may be accessed here, or by employing the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Tomorrow is Patriot Day (Patriot League, that is), during which Bucknell (selected by 67) takes on Lehigh (taken by 7: Booth; Fitch; L Leach; Samantha Leach, B Peloso, M Pogach, J Whiteside).

See you then.

Top to Bottom

Surprise Leach and Iona bested Rybaltowski and Siena for the MAAC championship, by one point in overtime. The 5 pool points that nobody else got has propelled Su Leach all the way into a tie for 14th place.

Six other conference titles have been decided. In the OVC, Jacksonville State (picked by one fewer entrant than the winner of the MAAC, i.e., zero) beat UT-Martin (chosen by Mash Leach only). In the Atlantic Sun, Florida Gulf Coast (taken by 67) ended the hopes of M Pogach, L Schlegel, and North Florida, in that order. Big South champion Winthrop (selected by 41) beat Campbell (selected by nobody). In the Southern Conference, it was East Tennessee State (36) over UNC-Greensboro (17). In two conferences where all of our entrants picked either one of two teams, UNC-Wilmington (52) triumphed over Charleston (23) in the Colonial Athletic Association, and Wichita State (60) cruised by Illinois State (15) in the MVC.

Out of 32 conferences, there were only four in which 70 or more of our contestants agreed on a champion. Two of those four (Belmont and Monmouth) have already lost. The other two have reached their conference finals: Vermont (74) plays Albany (0) in the America East conference final, later in the week, and Gonzaga (73) plays either St. Mary's (Mash Leach only) or BYU (Steinhardt only), tomorrow. In the NEC final, also tomorrow, Mt. St. Mary's (taken by 51) faces St. Francis, PA (taken by nobody).

The Summit League presents another mano-a-mano cage match between South Dakota State/L Schlegel and Omaha/M McAtee. In the Horizon League, the #1 seed (Oakland, taken by 33), the #2 seed (Valparaiso, liked by 40), and the #3 seed (Biebel 2, only) all lost their first game. The championship game tomorrow pits #4 Northern Kentucky (chosen by a grand total of none of us) against #10 Milwaukee (ditto), meaning that out of the first 11 conferences to crown a champion, at least four (and potentially as many as six) were picked either by zero or by just one of our entrants. We send out a hearty and well-deserved bravo to our group of "special" pool-pickers.

In our first standings of the year, Avila is on top with 28 points, followed closely by nine contestants who are tied with 25. Last year's champion, M Peloso has gone from top to bottom and is now alone in last place with 5 points. Full standings may be accessed here, or by employing the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Surprise! Or not...

It wasn't quite Belmontian, but in the MAAC, 73 out of 75 of our contestants picked Monmouth to win it. Nobody picked #2 St. Peter's, but... surprise! Surprise Leach, that is, picked #3 Iona, who beat St. Peter's, and Rybaltowski picked #4 Siena, who vanquished Monmouth.

So, Su Leach and Rybaltowski are going mano-a-mano in the MAAC final, right now, and the game just went into overtime.

More in a bit...

Ask not for whom the Belmonts...

There was no conference champion about which our collective wisdom was more sure. It was as good a lock as anyone was going to get in our contest -- 74 out of 75 entries listed "Belmont" as OVC champion. If our contestants felt good about anything, it was this.

You can probably guess the rest.

It took all the way until March 2 for that good feeling to dissipate. After going 15-1 in regular season OVC play, Belmont went 0-1 in its conference tournament, losing by 6 to Jacksonville State. The sole individual who did not go with Belmont, the ubiquitous Mash Leach, will presumably be rooting hard for Tennessee-Martin in the OVC championship game, later tonight.

In the Atlantic Sun, North Florida (chosen by M Pogach and L Schlegel) continued its improbable run and will face favorite Florida Gulf Coast (selected by 67) in the conference championship tomorrow. In the NEC, Robert Morris (picked by Fitch and Grossman) beat LIU (liked by 17) and moves on to face Mount St. Mary's (faved by 51 of us) in a conference semifinal today. In the Big South, Winthrop (taken by 41) survived Gardner-Webb in overtime, and will play Campbell (taken by nobody but beat UNCA (picked by 32) anyway) in the conference championship tomorrow.

Unless you count President Trump tweeting this morning that President Obama tapped his phones, nothing else worth noting has happened. The only other team with as many votes (74) as Belmont had is Vermont in the America East, so look out, Catamounts, in your next game on Monday.

Gentlemen (and women), start your engines!

Here we go. 75 intrepid individuals have chosen to play in this year's contest and the games have just begun.

The only relevant games so far were the start of the Atlantic Sun tournament, and the only result of note was the upset victory by North Florida, a 14-18 team that M Pogach and L Schlegel for some reason decided would win that conference.

No conference tournaments tonight, so get a good night's sleep and get ready for the fun. We know we will.

Here we go again!

It's time for the 28th annual Pre-NCAA Contest.

Rules may be found here.

Entry Form may be found here.

Due date is Monday, February 27, 2017.

This year for payment, we accept cash, checks, Venmo, or Paypal -- instructions are on the rules page.

Enjoy!

Supernova

Well, Villanova was clearly the best team in this year's tournament, much to the delight of our old-time tag team, the Nova Gang (approximately none of which played in this year's contest). And also to the three of our contestants who professed to Villanova being their favorite college: Kovolski, George B, and M McAtee.

And M Peloso was clearly the best entrant in this year's contest, finishing 1st with 325 points. Also in the money were Selig (305 points) and Crotty (301).

Just missing the sweet spots were L Schlegel (298) and K Ripley (291), though at least both of them kicked their own father's behind (and K Ripley realized her dream of smacking her husband around as well). Best entry that did not have Villanova as champion belonged to Serri (285), for which he gets a tiny gold star but no monetary remuneration whatsoever.

As reported previously, Harlan won the award for being in first place immediately after the field was chosen.

At the bottom of the pack was Tharp with 151 points, Grossman with 186, and Butscher with 188.

Final standings may be found here, or by using the link on the right hand side of the page.

That about wraps up this year's contest. See y'all next year.

Math

Number of contestants who guessed half (or more) of the conference champions: 4 of 67 (6.0%): Harlan (18 of 32); M Wanger (17); Marshall (16); Crotty (16).

With four #1 seeds and two #2 seeds making the Elite Eight, number of contestants who got better than 5 Elite Eight teams: 1 of 67 (1.5%): Biebel 2 (6 of 8).
(Though 28 people got 5 of 8, meaning 43.3% of our entrants guessed more than half the Elite Eight correctly).

With a #1 seed and two #2 seeds in the Final Four, number of contestants who get better than half the Final Four teams; 1 of 67 (1.5%): Joe McAtee (3).
(Though 20 contestants got 2 of 4, meaning 31.3% of our entrants guessed half the Final Four (or better)).

Number of contestants who accurately predicted the national champion: 8 of 67 (11.9%): J Broder, Crotty, S Leach, J McAtee, M Peloso, K Ripley, L Schlegel, Selig.

On the other side:

Number of contestants whose correct conference champions numbered in single digits: 10 of 67 (14.9%): James Tharp (6); Jeff Butscher (6); Shawn Nocilla (8); Manny Pogach (9); Nancy Booth (9); Michael Anania (9); Jack Whiteside; Leo Leach (9); George Templeton (9); Jon Broder (9).

With four #1 seeds and two #2 seeds making the Elite Eight, number of contestants who got only two Elite Eight teams right: 3 of 67 (4.5%): J Whiteside, Grossman, Pogach
(and seven others got only 3 of 8: D Kedson, Do Dye, Sa Leach, Miller, T Cristinzio, J McAtee.

With a #1 seed and two #2 seeds in the Final Four, number of contestants who got zero (0) Final Four teams: 11 of 67 (16.4%): R Schlegel, Butscher, Templeton, Tharp, Fitch, Tester, Rybaltowski, Da Dye, Do Dye, D Kedson, Grossman.

Number of contestants who failed to accurately predicted the national champion: 59 of 67 (88.1%).

Special recognition goes to J McAtee, who chose only three of the Elite Eight but picked all three successfully into the Final Four.

Specialer recognition goes (of course) to Butscher who backed up his mind-boggling conference champion run by getting zero (0) Final Four teams, despite picking the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd most popular Final Four choices (Kansas, Michigan State, and Virginia) as well the 9th most popular pick (Maryland).

No words

After watching both Marcus Paige's penultimate shot and then Kris Jenkins's buzzer beater, words escape us.

A brilliant end to an exciting tournament. Congrats to the Nova Gang. Hopefully a more articulate postmortem tomorrow.

The Curious Incident of the Rivals in the NCAA-Time

We raise them. We try to teach them right from wrong, to respect their elders. Then the cold truth sets in.

Take for example, venerable patriarch R Wanger, who this year put in a respectable (if slightly below average) effort with 240 points. Did his offspring treat him with the gentle deference he'd earned over the many years, after he brought them into and prepared them for the callous world they live in? Uh, no. Both son M Wanger and daughter K Ripley thrashed the old man, each garnering 251 points. And son-in-law P Ripley did them one better (actually three better), with 254. K Ripley chose Villanova as her champion, so if it's the Wildcats' year then K Ripley will have lived out her annual dream of "beat[ing] my dad and my husband."

The same generational behavior can be found all over. Adams kicked father Coach Doc's behind, 270 to 256. Mike Mc (230) took it to father Joe Mc (228), although Joe Mc also has Nova as champion so it's possible he'll take back his parental due. J Donadio, Sr. (273) currently clings to a lead over L Donadio (262) and J Donadio, Jr. (259), but if UNC wins it all then Jr. will spank the old man. Rubinson tried to buck this trend by choosing his entry jointly with his son, but unfortunately both of them lost (248 points).

Once mighty C Whiteside (233) these days can't even beat out the little girl in his own backyard (B Whiteside (276)). Although the former trash-talking Shabba did manage to beat out son J Whiteside (202) and also avoided a year of ignominy by edging arch-nemesis (and sister-in-law) Booth (228) by a mere five points.

Leach Gang paterfamilias E Leach (243) got a stern talking to from not one but two grandchildren, Mad Leach (255) and Sa Leach (234). Mad Leach (255) also grounded her father, P Leach (238), and if Villanova wins it all, Sa Leach (234, with Nova as champion) will have treated her father just as shabbily. At least P Leach beat out one of the family dogs (L Leach (228)).

But one father kept his #1 spot in the family household, and that was D Josephs (257), who subordinated son (and co-commissioner) M Josephs (226).

We already mentioned K Ripley's chance to beat husband P Ripley. If she succeeds it will be a clean sweep for the wives in the married couple department, joining Da Dye (226) -- who beat Do Dye (215) by 11 points -- and M Peloso (285), who skunked husband B Peloso (233) by more than 50.

But back to children. As the adage goes, they say the darnedest things. But sometimes they back it up. B Whiteside, for example, boldly bragged she would "destroy twin brother Jack," and she did, 276 to 202. J Whiteside, on the other hand, conceded that he "may not beat Brenna," but added that "Aunt Nancy has no shot." Sadly for J Whiteside (202), his Aunt, Booth (228) not only had a shot, she put the tyke in his place by more than 25 points. In Leachworld, Mad Leach (255) and Sa Leach (234) each proclaimed they would "have the best kid pool," but unless Oklahoma wins, neither will. If the Sooners take the natty, however, Mad Leach (255 with Okla as champ) will in fact beat out B Whiteside (276) for the minor pool championship. Mad Leach (255, with Okla as champ) also flatly stated she would "beat [her] sister," and she'll be right about that unless UNC wins it all, in which case Sa Leach's (234, with UNC as champ) identical assertion will turn out to be accurate.

Overall, the kid standings are in a state of flux. Four of the seven putative minors in this contest have active national champions (57%), almost triple the percentage of adults who still have a chance at getting champion points (23%). Right now, B Whiteside leads the small pack with 276 points, followed by L Donadio (262), J Donadio, Jr. (259 with UNC as champ), L Schlegel (258, with Villanova as champ), Mad Leach (255, with Oklahoma as champ), Sa Leach (234, with UNC as champ), and J Whiteside (202). If Villanova wins, the kid champion will be L Schlegel. If UNC wins, it'll be J Donadio, Jr.. And if Oklahoma wins, the minor crown goes to Mad Leach.

Among the present and/or former inhabitants of 12A, Serri (285) proved best, beating out Gorenstein (276) and Sciarabba (229). Among the Millan-aires, Karlsruher (268) looks to be on top, but T Joseph (247, with UNC as champ) still has a shot at bragging rights if UNC wins it all. Brenner (237), not so much. And Millan himself didn't even enter the contest. Best among the DBR crew will either be Biebel 2 (273) or, if Villanova wins it, ACCBballFan (261, with Villanova as champ). Looking up at their fellow DBR aficionados are Nocilla (262), Biebel 1 (258), Tommy (248), and Kedsy (206). Biebel had the distinction of beating himself, 273 to 258.

In the Leach Gang, the trash talk wasn't restricted to the children. L Leach (228) barked that he'd have "the best dog pool there is," but couldn't even beat out a mystery canine from his own family (Su Leach (282)). Octogenarian E Leach also chirped a bit, predicting he'd be "leading the over 80 club," but we can neither confirm nor deny his claim, as that information just isn't available. P Leach vowed to win the contest before he turned 50, and all we can say to that is wait 'till next year.

A Tale of Two Tag Teams

In the last six years, the illustrious tag team Whiteside and his Enemies has finished 2nd in the tag team competition four times, 1st once, and 3rd once. In the last million-and-six years, it seems The Leach Gang has only avoided finishing last in the competition maybe once or twice. But in this most topsy-turvy of years, in which a former First Lady and a former TV host of The Apprentice are the likely nominees for President of the United States, we guess it only makes sense that Whiteside and his Whitesidekicks have dropped off the map, with an average of 225.40 points, more than 11 points worse than the morally victorious Leaches, in second-to-last place at 236.88.

On the other end, The Donadio Group has won the tag team competition for the second season out of the last three, with an average of 264.67, just edging the present and/or former inhabitants of 12A (263.33). Bunched closely behind the leaders are Friends of DBR (251.33), the Millan-less Millan-sters (250.67), and the Ripley Believe it or Nots (249.0). Lagging behind that bunch but still ahead of the Leach and Whiteside contingents are those associated with Urban Engineers (243.60).

Also wallowing in ignominy is the average Commissioner (216.0), who trails the average pool entrant (241.43) by more than 25 points.

In other ways, however, order remains. Females (254.82), for example, have once again shown their dominance over males (238.80), suggesting that the Y-chromosome is worth approximately negative-16 points. Members of the animal kingdom (255.0) scored significantly better than humans (242.31), who in turn outperformed lawyers (233.0) by a fair margin. Children (249.43) are, on average, sticking their tongues out at their adult counterparts (240.5).

Teachers (267.80) basically took students (251.75) to school. And everyone else as well. The second best pool-picking profession this year was engineering (245.75), followed by the financial disciplines (242.82). If you're an attorney (236.0) or in a technical profession (239.33), you might as well be retired (241.00).

Only four universities were named as a favorite by more than one contestant. Of those Temple (255.50) bested Villanova (248.67), in the contest if not on the court. Running behind those local schools were Duke (246.60) and Penn State (236.56).

From a name standpoint, names that sound like "Kevin" (265.50) outshone names that sound like "Luke" (260.00) or "John" (260.00). Names that end in a "k" sound -- Mike (244.0), Rick (242.50), and Jack/Jake (235.0) -- were at least better than Jeff (232.0), David (231.50), George (226.50), or Matt (220.00).

The best states from which to select this season were New Jersey (264.67) and New York (256.75), a little better than Illinois (248.67) and California (245.00). Pennsylvania (240.33) or Florida (234.50)? Not so much. North of Pennsylvania (256.13) is a better region from which to pick pools than West of Pennsylvania (247.2) or South of Pennsylvania (238.00). Western PA (248.00) beat out Eastern PA (239.6), and Philadelphia suburbs (240.66) stuck up their noses at Philadelphia proper (226.00).

Look out for this year's edition of Rivals, coming soon to a blog near you.

Hypothetical Winners

The Final Four is set. And, total shocker, none of the four teams was chosen by a majority of our contestants. UNC was closest, with 30 votes out of 67, followed by Oklahoma (28), Villanova (20), and Syracuse (0). Looking forward, of the remaining four teams Villanova has the most votes for champion (8: J Broder, Crotty, S Leach, J McAtee, M Peloso, K Ripley, L Schlegel, Selig), while UNC has five big fans (Anania, T Cristinzio, J Donadio, Jr., T Joseph, Packman) and Oklahoma has four (J Donadio, Sr., M Kleiman, Mad Leach, Mahalko). Nobody had the prescience to pick Syracuse.

What that means is we know who's going to win the contest. Conditionally, that is:

IF VILLANOVA WINS:

1st place: M Peloso, 325 points;
2nd place: Selig, 305 points;
3rd place: Crotty, 301 points.

Just outside the money: L Schlegel (298); K Ripley (291); Serri (285).

IF OKLAHOMA WINS:

1st place: J Donadio, Sr., 313 points
2nd place: Mad Leach, 295 points
3rd place (tie): M Peloso, 285 points;
3rd place (tie): Serri, 285 points.

Just outside the money: Su Leach (282); Mahalko (282).

IF NORTH CAROLINA WINS:

1st place: J Donadio, Jr., 299 points
2nd place: T Joseph, 287 points
3rd place (tie): M Peloso, 285 points;
3rd place (tie): Serri, 285 points.

Just outside the money: Packman (284); Su Leach (282).

IF SYRACUSE WINS:

1st place (tie): M Peloso, 285 points;
1st place (tie): Serri, 285 points;
3rd place: Su Leach, 282 points.

Just outside the money: Gorenstein (276); Smith (276); B Whiteside (276).

So that's that. Tune in later this week for Tag Team tallies and Rivals revelry.

And so it goes...

Now that the inevitable occurred, and our second co-favorite, Kansas, has been vanquished, it means that our consensus champion (or in this case, champions) did not even make the Final Four, and our historical pool favorite is now 6 for 27 (22.2%) across the decades. But presumably the eight entrants who chose Villanova (J Broder, Crotty, S Leach, J McAtee, M Peloso, K Ripley, L Schlegel, Selig) as national champs are happy.

As are, we assume, the four contestants who picked Oklahoma as champion (J Donadio, Sr., M Kleiman, Mad Leach, Mahalko). Oddly, although fewer people favored them as champions, more of our entrants took the Sooners into the Final Four (28) than took the Nova gang (20).

Updated standings may be found at the link on the right hand side of the page (perhaps surprisingly, the link labeled "Standings"). And those standings show M Peloso (285 points) and Su Leach (282) at the top. But neither of the leaders has any chance of getting more points tomorrow, so they should probably enjoy it while they can.

All four teams playing tomorrow (Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Notre Dame) are out of the ACC, meaning that league is guaranteed a spot in the championship game. And this time tomorrow, the entire Final Four will have been appointed. Here's hoping for a couple good games.

Fourness

We have our Eight, and the Four get decided in the next day and a half. Surprisingly, five of our top six Final Four choices are still alive:

Kansas (chosen by 51)
Virginia (35)
North Carolina (30)
Oklahoma (28)
Villanova (20)

The only top six choice that is no longer playing is, of course, Michigan State (mourned by 45). Our seventh through eleventh most popular picks are also also-rans:

Xavier (14)
Kentucky (10)
Maryland (9)
Miami (4: Da Dye, L Leach, M McAtee, Tharp)
Iowa (4: Fitch, Pogach, Templeton, Tharp)

The three remaining Elite Eight teams raise interesting possibilities. Well, except for Syracuse, which was chosen by nary a soul. Notre Dame was also chosen by nobody to make the Final Four, but is the wild card of Gorenstein, who has ridden the 20 bonus points all the way into first place with 256 points, and L Schlegel, who currently stands tied for 8th place with 238 points. Another win by the Irish (and the corresponding 30 wild card points) could catapult these two comfortably into the winning circle. Also looking for a little windfall are the three people who took Oregon into the Final Four: D Josephs (in 10th place with 237 points); K Ripley (tied for 25th with 231 points; and Steinhardt (tied for 38th with 222 points), all of whom would presumably welcome 20 Final Four points that nobody else can achieve.

Rounding out our Final Four choices, nine teams that aren't going to get there were chosen by two entrants or fewer:

West Virginia (Booth, T Joseph)
Duke (B Whiteside, J Whiteside)
Baylor (Sa Leach, Rybaltowski)
Arizona (D Kedson, Tester)
Texas (Baumgarten)
Texas A&M (Pogach)
Utah (Sciarabba)
Iowa State (R Wanger)
Dayton (J McAtee)

Looking forward, Gorenstein seems in pretty good shape, 256 current points with the potential of snagging three Final Four teams (including his wild card): Notre Dame, Kansas, and UNC. Three others are also in the top ten of the standings and have three Final Four possibilities: Serri, who currently sits tied for 4th with 245 points and can glean Final Four points from UNC, Oklahoma, and Virginia; L Schlegel, who's currently tied for 8th with 238 points and still has Notre Dame, Virginia, and both of Kansas and Villanova (playing each other so only one can go to Houston); and D Josephs, in 10th with 237 points and Final Four hopefuls Oregon, Virginia, and Villanova.

The rest of our top ten in the standings all have the potential for two Final Four teams:

Harlan, 254 points with Virginia and both of Kansas/Villanova
M Peloso, 245 points with Oklahoma and both of Kansas/Villanova
Su Leach, 242 points with Oklahoma and both of Kansas/Villanova
Crotty, 241 points with Virginia and both of Kansas/Villanova
R Schlegel, 241 points with Virginia and Kansas
Biebel, 238 points with UNC and Kansas

The first two 2016 Final Four teams will earn their spots tonight. Savor the moment.

Eightness

The Tourney starts back up tonight, and we'll get our first four forays into the Final Eight. In the early games, Villanova (chosen into the Elite Eight by 44 entrants) takes on Miami (picked by 20), while Oklahoma (favored by 50) tries to corral Texas A&M (taken only by Pogach). In the later games it's most favored Kansas (62) against Maryland (32), and Oregon (16) vs. Duke (Grossman, J McAtee, B Whiteside, J Whiteside, plus the 31 who picked the Blue Devils as their wild card).

Tomorrow, we'll see Virginia (57) against Iowa State (7: Grossman, Miller, Pogach, Smith, Templeton, R Wanger, J Whiteside) and Wisconsin (Da Dye, Do Dye) vs. Notre Dame (Sciarabba) in the early games, while later on North Carolina (54) exchanges shots with Indiana (4: Coach Doc, L Schlegel, Sciarabba, J Whiteside). Oh, yeah, Syracuse plays Gonzaga, too, though you wouldn't know it from our contestants' predictions (or lack thereof). Nobody took either one of them.

As we mentioned Sunday, 56 of us foolishly favored Michigan State into the Elite Eight. Also wrong were the 42 of us who chose Xavier, the 22 who cared for Kentucky, the 16 who went with West Virginia, and the 11 each who chose Iowa and/or Wichita State. The following were not only mistaken, they didn't have a lot of company:

Arizona: 5 (Anania, D Kedson, Kovolski, Sa Leach, Tester)
Purdue: 4 (Mad Leach, Su Leach, Miller, Rybaltowski)
Texas: 3 (Baumgarten, L Leach, Sa Leach)
Utah: 3 (Nocilla, Sciarabba, B Whiteside)
Baylor: 3 (Booth, Sa Leach, Rybaltowski)


Special mention goes to Miller and Sciarabba, who chose uninvited Valparaiso into their Elite Eight. Special jeers go to J McAtee and Tharp, who chose ineligible SMU into theirs. And the most specialest mention of all goes to J McAtee who devoted almost 40% of his Elite Eight to ineligible SMU, Temple (only entrant to choose them) and Dayton (ditto on the only part).

Enjoy the games.

No go, Izzo

We warned you. We could have warned him, but Tom Izzo wouldn't take our call. Our co-champion selection, Michigan State, chosen by 19 of us to win the natty, instead went down in the first round to 15-seed Middle Tennessee State in what some people are calling the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history. A grand total of 56 contestants liked the Spartans into the Elite Eight, and 45 thought them Final Four-worthy. Bill Self, if you're reading this, be afraid, be very afraid.

The only other selected champion to go down was Xavier (taken by Gorenstein and Rubinson), although at least it took a buzzer-beater in the second round to eliminate them. The X-men were also a popular Elite Eight (42 entrants) and Final Four (14) selection. We'll go into more Eight/Four detail later in the week.

Out of 67 contestants, 45 have received 6 wild card points (and counting), for choosing Duke (31), Indiana (9), Wisconsin (3), or Notre Dame (2). Another 11 entrants received a single wild card point, for Utah (9) or St. Joseph's (2). Meaning only 11 entrants failed to garner any points for their wild card selection. And we will cheerfully name them: George B, Grossman, M Josephs, Rybaltowski, Sciarabba, and B Whiteside, all of whom took first round loser California; Karlsruher, who took First Four loser Vanderbilt; Tharp (South Carolina) and J Whiteside (St. Bonaventure), each of whom selected NIT teams; and Biebel 2 and T Joseph, each of whom attempted to select ineligible wild card teams. Either Wisconsin (Su Leach, Serri, Steinhardt) or Notre Dame (Gorenstein, L Schlegel) will necessarily earn at least another 20 wild card points, since the Badgers and the Irish play a Sweet 16 game on Friday. Those who chose Duke or Indiana can only hope to pile up more wild card points as well.

Since almost everybody has won wild card points, the standings haven't changed much. Harlan still leads, now with 204 points, followed by Gorenstein (196), M Peloso (195), Serri (195), Su Leach (192), Crotty (191), and R Schlegel (191).

At least one commissioner is out of town, so we'll all have to wait for the nitty-gritty for a couple days. Until then...

Holy Cross, Batman...

Holy Cross beat Southern on Wednesday night, 59 to 55, in a "First Four" game. It has nothing at all to do with our contest but still, to think that a team that plays in the Patriot League and ended the regular season with a 10-19 record will be playing 1-seed Oregon on Friday with at least a non-zero chance to win the national championship? Isn't America great? We now resume our regular programming.

What we really wanted to talk about today was crime. Well, rule-breaking. Or, more accurately, ineligibility.

For example, as always, the contest rules were posted and identified, and in the relevant regard have remained unchanged for 27 years. Those rules are (in our opinion, anyway) quite clear: any team may be selected as a wild card except the top 25 teams as of the start of the contest, clearly linked from the rules page and the entry form. But does everybody listen? Noooooooooo.

This year, two scofflaws attempted to slide an ineligible wild card past us. And as is our habit and custom and tradition, we will gleefully out them: Biebel 2 tried to take Texas A&M (#15 in the relevant AP top 25), and T Joseph attempted to slip Texas (#24 in said top 25) past us. We are pleased to say neither succeeded in their nefarious plots.

A few other wild card selections, while technically speaking within the rules, were just plain unwise. Tharp picked South Carolina, a team currently playing in the NIT, and J Whiteside chose Saint Bonaventure, a team that lost, at home, in the NIT first round. At least Karlsruher's wild card, Vanderbilt, sort of made the NCAA Tournament, losing in a "First Four" game on Tuesday.

The last time Duke was eligible to be a wild card was 1996. Presumably because they've been waiting 20 years for this opportunity, our contestants jumped at the chance. A whopping 31 entrants chose the 4-seeded Blue Devils as their wild card, by far the most of the year.

The next highest total was Indiana, also 4-seeded, with 9: Booth, M Kleiman, Kovolski, L Leach, Marshall, M Paston, B Peloso, K Ripley, Smith; tied with 3-seeded Utah (the best-seeded team of any chosen wild card), also with 9: Biebel 1, Butscher, L Donadio, Fitch, Mahalko, Pogach, R Wanger, Warner, C Whiteside. 4-seeded California got 6 votes: George B, Grossman, M Josephs, Rybaltowski, Sciarabba, B Whiteside. 7-seeded Wisconsin was the choice of three entrants (Su Leach, Serri, Steinhardt), while 6-seeded Notre Dame (Gorenstein, L Schlegel) and 8-seeded St. Joseph's (J Broder, J McAtee) were selected by two each.

But that's not the only ineligibility we want to talk about. Some of you may remember (although others clearly do not) that we posted a little friendly advice before the pool was due. We noted that a lot of teams might not be eligible to participate in the Tournament. We suggested it might behoove potential entrants to consult the list of ineligibles before filling out their entry. We even let slip the possibility of public shaming of whoever failed to heed our "friendly" advice. Despite all that, three guesses on whether our advice was followed?

Nah, you can't have three guesses. Or even two. You all know how this turned out.

A total of thirty (30) selections were wasted on ineligible teams, albeit just on three teams:

SMU (12): J Broder, T Cristinzio, Crotty, M Kleiman, Mahalko, Marshall, J McAtee, M McAtee Miller, Packman, Selig, Tharp.

Louisville (9): George B, T Cristinzio, T Joseph, J McAtee, M McAtee, Selig, Smith, Tharp, M Wanger.

Grand Canyon (9) -- yeah, we said "Grand Canyon" -- T Cristinzio, M Josephs, L Leach, Mahalko, J McAtee, Miller, Packman, Rubinson, Tharp.

Before the contest started, we predicted that some people might be in danger of selecting two ineligible teams. But even we, in our most cynical dreams, didn't imagine that a few might go for three. So if somebody doesn't mind working up a drum roll, here we go. The following three individuals wasted not one, not two, but three (3) of their choices on teams that had a zero (0) percent chance of making the Tournament: T Cristinzio, J McAtee, and Tharp. Including Grand Canyon.

Those three contestants make it almost anti-climactic to identify the five entrants who did as we predicted and chose two ineligible teams. Almost. Well, actually not almost, not close at all. Like there was any chance we'd forebear. Of course we're totally going to name them (and please imagine a sinister chuckle while you read): Mahalko, M McATee, Miller, Packman, Selig. Sort of fun, wasn't it?

The real games start tomorrow. Enjoy.

No Shocker

For those of you who indulge in advanced stats, you must know the name Pomeroy. His rating system, which tracks points per possession and points allowed per possession and then uses a series of complex formulas to derive a team ranking is very well known in college basketball circles. Most of the time his ratings are at least comparable to conventional wisdom, but every once in awhile a team sticks out.

Like Wichita State this season. Coming into the tournament, Pomeroy ranked the Shockers as the #12 team in the nation. But the selection committee, which obviously paid such advanced statistics little heed, not only seeded Wichita as an 11-seed, but made them participate in a play-in game (a.k.a., the First Four) against Vanderbilt.

This was no cakewalk. Vanderbilt also had a legitimate gripe about having to go through the First Four, being rated #27 by Pomeroy coming into the tourney. Still, Wichita State prevailed, making the Commodores look like that old-time singing group, and winning 70-50.

Next, Wichita State must play Arizona on Thursday night. That sound you're hearing is the nine contestants who chose Wichita State into the Elite Eight (Baumgarten, Da Dye, Do Dye, Fitch, Grossman, Su Leach, M McAtee, Miller, M Peloso, Rubinson, L Schlegel) breathing a major sigh of relief. Or maybe it's the sound of gnashing teeth belonging to Karlsruher, who took Vanderbilt as his wild card.

Two more play-in games tomorrow, and then the main event begins. Stay tuned.

Champs, or Chumps?

In the 26 years this contest has been run, our contestants' consensus national champion has won six (6) times. That's a success rate of 23%. But our question is, if our entrants have two top teams, because of a tie, does that double our chances? If so, that would bring us within four percent of flipping a coin! Yowsa.

Well, we'll discover the answer to that question this year, as both Kansas and Michigan State polled 19 votes each. Naturally, Butscher went for one of the two most popular choices, in this case Michigan State, presumably dooming the Spartans to an early upset. The Kansas Jayhawks will probably feel pretty good about that, until someone reminds them that they're still the co-favorite of our entrants.

Nine of us chose Virginia as national champion (George B, Booth, L Leach, Nocilla, Rybaltowski, Sciarabba, R Simon, Warner, J Whiteside), while eight intrepid souls went for local favorite Villanova (J Broder, Crotty, S Leach, J McAtee, M Peloso, K Ripley, L Schlegel, Selig). North Carolina was the darlings of five contestants (Anania, T Cristinzio, J Donadio, Jr., T Joseph, Packman). Oklahoma was OK for four (J Donadio, Sr., M Kleiman, Mad Leach, Mahalko). Two entrants are crossing their appendages for Xavier (Gorenstein and Rubinson).

As you might have noticed, our top seven champion choices were all #1 or #2 seeds. Only one non-top-two seed got a vote for champion, and that would be Maryland, chosen by co-commissioner M Josephs. Fair warning, the last time M Josephs was the sole person favoring a champion was 1998, when he rode Kentucky all the way to the winnings. Can lightning strike twice? Hey, you never know.

We can't remember the last time in our contest that a #1-seed failed to win a single vote for national champ, but that's just what happened to #1-seed Oregon this season. Those sounds you're hearing are the mad cheers of Ducks' fans everywhere, because they know their chances just got better.

What's in your bracket?

As police search for the shadowy figure who leaked the tournament bracket on twitter, we know our contestants are focused on a much more exigent mystery: How'd Butscher do? The answer is, for him, pretty well. He went with most popular picks in the Sun Belt and Big 10, and shockingly won them both. He tried the second-most popular picks in the Atlantic 10 and the SEC, and predictably dropped both of those. Altogether, Butscher correctly picked 6 out of 32 conference champions. But the big news is that only tied him for worst performance of the year. Yes, another entrant, Tharp, also flubbed 26 of the 32 conferences, and what's more, Butscher picked more correct at-large teams than Tharp and has thus risen to second-to-last place. We guess congratulations are in order.

Lost in the excitement of Butscher's achievements, however, is the utter ineptitude of our contestants in general. Only two entrants accurately selected more than half the conference champions (Harlan, with 18 of 32; and M Wanger, with 17). Only two additional entrants got as many as half correct (Marshall and Crotty, each with 16).

As in the classic movie, Murder on the Orient Express, the number 12 keeps cropping up. More than 60% of us managed 12 or fewer conference winners. Perhaps not coincidentally, a majority of us guessed the conference winner in just 12 of the 32 conferences. Perhaps even less coincidentally, there were also 12 conferences that six (6) or fewer of us got right:

- NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson): 6 (Fitch, M Josephs, M Peloso, Selig, R Simon, M Wanger);
- SWAC (Southern U.): 5 (George B, Booth, Gorenstein, Rubinson, Rybaltowski);
- Atlantic Sun (Florida-Gulf Coast): 4 (L Leach, Sa Leach, Marshall, Rybaltowski);
- MAC (Buffalo): 3 (Sa Leach, Su Leach, R Simon);
- WAC (Cal-State Bakersfield): 2 (Crotty, Harlan);
- Mountain West (Fresno St.): 2 (J Broder, Pogach);
- Conference USA (Middle Tennessee State): 2 (L Leach, J Miller);
- Big East (Seton Hall): 1 (Fitch);
- MVC (Northern Iowa): 1 (L Schlegel);
- OVC (Austin Peay): 0 (nobody);
- Horizon (Green Bay): 0 (not a soul);
- Patriot (Holy Cross): 0 (zip, nada, zilch, you get the gist, right?);

While some would argue leading this pack is hardly an achievement, we still give a prize to the leader as of the selection of the field (i.e., now), and this year that prize goes to Harlan, who has mustered 198 points. Currently in second place (even less of an achievement and even less of a... well, no prize at all) is Gorenstein, with 190, followed by M Peloso and Serri, each with 189. Another 18 contestants are within a Final Four selection (20 points) of the leader.

We'll spend much of the week analyzing our contestants' "wisdom" and looking ahead to the tournament. Have fun filling out your bracket.

Butscherwatch

As of 1am on Saturday night (really Sunday morning), 26 conferences have determined their champion, with one late game still going on and five more tomorrow. When we last left everybody's favorite hard luck poolster, Butscher, despite his having chosen either the most popular or second-most popular team in all 32 conferences, he had whiffed on his first 13 chances to get a point. Let's see how he did today, shall we?

In Conference USA, Middle Tennessee State (chosen by L Leach and J Miller) edged Old Dominion (chosen only by Tester), 55-53. Butscher went with the most popular pick, UAB, which was upset earlier in the tournament. Butscherwatch: oh for 14.

Butscher also lost his Big East pick yesterday, Xavier (2nd most popular choice), but nearly everybody else lost today, as Villanova (taken by 44) went down my a mere basket to Seton Hall (picked by Fitch), 69-67. Butscherwatch: oh for 15.

In the Mountain West, Butscher's pick was again the most popular but not the most successful, as San Diego State (touted by 64) lost to Fresno State (guessed by J Broder, Pogach), 68-63. Butscherwatch: oh for 16.

In the SWAC, Butscher once again went with the most popular choice, but you see the trend here? Texas Southern (taken by 62) lost yesterday and Southern University (selected by 5: George B, Booth, Gorenstein, Rubinson, Rybaltowski) squeaked by Jackson State (predicted by nobody), 54-53. Butscherwatch: oh for 17.

In the MAC, it was déjà vu all over again, as Butscher went with favorite Akron (taken by 58), then watched the Zips lose to Buffalo (picked by 3: Sa Leach, Su Leach, R Simon) on a late three-pointer, 64-61. Butscherwatch: oh for 18.

In the Big Sky, Butscher liked second-most popular Montana (taken by 16), but the Grizzlies failed to get past Weber State (selected by 48), losing 62-59. Butscherwatch: oh for 19.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Butscher selected most popular Virginia in the ACC, only to see the Hoos fall to the Heels of UNC (taken by 17), 61-57. Butscherwatch: oh for 20.

At the risk of sounding like a brokener record, the big, bad Butscher chose most popular New Mexico State (selected by 59) in the WAC, only to see the Aggies go down on a last second three-pointer by CS-Bakersfield (chosen by Crotty, Harlan), 57-54. Butscherwatch: oh for 21.

The Pac 12 continued the Butscheristic trend, with a twist. Our hero selected Utah, the second-most popular choice, but Utah didn't lose close like all those others. No, the Utes got smashed into tiny pieces, 88-57, at the hands of the Oregon Ducks (taken by 29). Butscherwatch: oh for 22.

In the Big West, most popular Hawaii (taken by 47) is currently winning over Long Beach State (liked by 3: Baumgarten, P Leach, Templeton), but Butscher went with second-most popular UC-Irvine, who bowed out some time ago. Similarly, he went with Temple, the most popular pick in the AAC, but tomorrow's AAC championship game is between Connecticut (picked by 13) and Memphis (favored by nobody). Butscherwatch: oh for 24.

But then a funny thing happened in the America East conference: Butscher picked a favorite (Stony Brook, taken by 55), and the favorite won, beating Vermont (picked by Su Leach, Pogach), 80-74. Then again in the MEAC, where Butscher's pick, Hampton (chosen by 47), beat South Carolina State (selected by 9: Anania, Booth, L Leach, J McAtee, M Peloso, Rubinson, Rybaltowski, R Simon, Tharp), 81-69. Then one more time, in the Big 12, Butscher went with the most popular team (Kansas, picked by 43), and that popular club beat West Virginia (taken by 4: J Donadio, Jr., L Leach, Rubinson, Templeton), 81-71. In the Southland, he once again went with a favorite (Stephen F. Austin, selected by 64) and that favorite clobbered a pretender (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, taken by 3: George B, Booth, J McAtee), by a score of 82-60. So, happy days but not that happy. Final Butscherwatch of the day: 4 for 28.

For those wishing to place bets on tomorrow's games, the Butscher has favorites Michigan State (taken by 42) and Arkansas-Little Rock (liked by 53), and second-most popular VCU (among 15) and Texas A&M (among 9: Booth, J Broder, Butscher, Kovolski, B Peloso, Pogach, Smith, Steinhardt).

Tops in the standings is M Wanger, with 68 points, followed by M Peloso (66), Harlan (66), Crotty (64), and R Simon (64). Another nine entrants have more than 60 points, with a lot more points to be decided tomorrow. Last place, of course, belongs to Butscher, with 29 points.

Getting there

More big conference action tonight, starting with the Big East, where Xavier (picked by 22 of us) got taken down by Seton Hall (selected by Fitch). In the Big 10, Indiana (chosen by 8: Coach Doc; J Donadio, Jr.; Gorenstein; Mahalko; K Ripley; Selig; M Wanger; J Whiteside) lost to Michigan (guessed by nobody). In the Big 12, Oklahoma (predicted by 17) suffered a last second heartbreaker at the hands of West Virginia (taken by 4: J Donadio, Jr.; L Leach; Rubinson, Templeton), while Baylor (liked by S Leach) and Iowa State (selected by Steinhardt) were also sent home.

The ACC saw Miami (taken by 9: Biebel, Booth, J Broder, Da Dye, S Leach, M McAtee, B Peloso, K Ripley, Rubinson) lose a close one and Notre Dame (selected by Steinhardt) get clobbered. In the Pac 12, Arizona (favorited by 18) went belly up. In the AAC, Cincinnati (liked by 13) lost to UConn (also liked by 13) in 4 overtimes, while Tulsa (believed in by 5: S Adams; Anania; Fitch; Rybaltowski; Sciarabba) took a tumble, as well.

Also in the AAC, six entrants went with ineligible SMU (J Broder, Crotty, Mahalko, M McAtee, Selig, Tharp). And, similarly to yesterday, we'll make a bold prediction that this won't be the last time you hear about it.

The big boys in action

The big conference tournaments are under way. Excitement builds in the days leading up to Selection Sunday. But ironically, news in our contest is lightest around now. In fact, the biggest news of the day is for the 2017 tournament: the Ivy League announced they will have a four team tournament next season to determine the league's automatic bid. Hallelujah.

Those of you who called your bookie to employ the Butscher factor probably cashed in pretty good. As we predicted, Butscher's choice, Lehigh, dropped the Patriot League final to Holy Cross, a team that finished ninth in the low-major Patriot League with a 14-18 win/loss record, as well as having no supporters among our contestants. Butscher is now oh for 13.

The trend of our entrants' favorite failing to meet expectations continued in Conference USA, where UAB (chosen by 60 out 67) got conked out by nobody's choice Western Kentucky.

Other than that, very few entries have been affected lately. In the MAC, M Josephs's and L Leach's faith in Ball State was proven misplaced. Similarly, Tharp probably wishes he hadn't backed Texas in the Big 12. In the Big 10, T Joseph, Mad Leach, Rybaltowski, and R Wanger erred on the side of Iowa. The Vanderbilt dreams of Baumgarten, Da Dye, L Leach, and L Schlegel were dashed in the SEC. And Duke blowing a 16 point lead in the ACC presumably irritated J Donadio, Jr., Grossman, D Kedson, E Leach, J McAtee, and Tester.

Also in the ACC, we noticed that current leader T Cristinzio picked ineligible Louisville to win it. We'll go out on a limb and predict this won't be the last time you hear about that.

Zero

Seven more conference champions have been crowned the past couple days, and two of them our contestants actually predicted correctly, bringing the total of conference champions that a majority of us picked up to three out of 12 (25%).

Joining the Ivy League's Yale (chosen by 41) were Chattanooga (picked by 54 of us), which beat ETSU (taken by 12) in the Southern Conference, and South Dakota State (chosen by 47) which beat North Dakota State (liked by nobody) in the battle for Dakota Fanning, er, the Summit League.

The rest of the conference champions showed up on the minority report. In the hotly contested WCC, Gonzaga (32) beat St. Mary's (30). In the similarly bifurcated CAA, UNCW (29) bested Hofstra (30) in OT. Just 16 of us went with Iona, which beat favorite Monmouth (48) by 3 points. And only six entrants had the prescience to pick Fairleigh Dickinson (Fitch, M Josephs, M Peloso, Selig, R Simon, M Wanger) over the operatic Wagner (50). Basically everybody was fuddled by the Horizon League, where Green Bay (favored by nobody) beat Wright State (chosen by only Pogach).

We've posted standings, which may be found in the link in this sentence and also on the right hand side of this page. A grand total of two (2) of us have accurately predicted more than half of the 12 conferences that have been decided, as both T Cristinzio and M Peloso got 7 of 12. Despite a percentage (58.3%) that would earn a grade of F in most area high schools, T Cristinzio and M Peloso currently share first place in our contest, each with 35 points. Just behind the leaders is M Wanger with 33 points and 6 correct conference champions. Also with 6 conference champs are Crotty, Marshall, Selig, and R Simon, all with 30 points.

Three contestants got only one conference correct: B Peloso (husband of co-leader M Peloso), M Paston, and L Donadio, all of whom have 5 points. But the most amazing performance so far belongs to Jeff "The Butcher" Butscher, who is 0 for 12 so far. Giving him zero (0) points.

It's not just that Butscher has failed to guess a single conference champion. No, it's the manner of his defeat. He didn't go out on a limb for the Florida A&Ms or Central Connecticuts of the world. Of the 12 conference champions so far, Butscher chose either our contestants' consensus favorite (Wichita State (chosen by 65); Valparaiso (62); North Florida (59); Belmont (56); Wagner (50); Monmouth (48); and Hofstra (30)) or our second favorite (St. Mary's (30); Princeton (26); High Point (22); IPFW (15); and ETSU (12)). He just somehow managed to lose every one. In fully half of the conferences decided so far, Butscher could have won points from a team in the conference final. But every single one lost.

Tomorrow, the Patriot League will hold its final game, and Butscher is among the nine entrants who took finalist Lehigh. And in a few days, he has Stony Brook playing in the America East championship game. After hearing those facts, however, we've learned the smart money has shifted to Holy Cross and Vermont. We'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't so funny.

Hey, Bulldog

Five conferences have crowned a champion, and our contestants guessed one of them. Congratulations to Yale and the 41 contestants who chose the first place Ivy team that tonight clinched the Ivy League's automatic bid without the bother of a league tournament.

Of the four conferences who actually finished a conference tournament, the best our group could do was 11 of 67 (16.4%). That was our score in the Big South, where UNC-Ashville (chosen by 11: T Cristinzio, Crotty, Coach Doc, Harlan, T Joseph, Mad Leach, Packman, Pogach, Selig, Templeton, Tester) beat up a character from the Music Man (Winthrop, chosen by 28 of us). In the Atlantic Sun, Florida Gulf Coast (taken by 4: L Leach, Sa Leach, Marshall, Rybaltowski) dashed the hopes of ineligible Stetson -- as well as the 59 of us who hoped that regular season champion North Florida would steal the bid on a technicality -- edging the Hatters by 2 points in overtime. In the MVC, Northern Iowa (schelected only by L Schlegel) culminated its conference run by beating 2-seed Evansville one day after besting 1-seed Wichita State. And, as reported yesterday, none of us were savvy enough to pick OVC champ Austin Peay.

Another four conferences are on the verge of finishing up. In the Colonial, it'll be Hofstra (selected by 30) vs. UNC-Wilmington (selected by 29). The MAAC will pit Monmouth (favored by 48) vs. Iona (16). In the Southern Conference, Chattanooga (54) will take on East Tennessee State (12). And in the Patriot League, 9-seed Holy Cross (picked by none of us), having crushed 4-seed Army (60-38) the day after thrashing 1-seed Bucknell, will face Lehigh (taken by 9: Biebel 2, Butscher, Crotty, M Kleiman, L Leach, M McAtee, P Ripley, Sciarabba, J Whiteside).

Championship week's just getting started. Another 27 automatic bids to be determined.

An Interesting Twist

The Atlantic Sun conference championship takes place tomorrow, when the Stetson Hatters take on the Florida Gulf Coast Coasters (actually, the Eagles). As we mentioned yesterday, only four entrants chose FGCU (L Leach, Sa Leach, Marshall, Rybaltowski). None chose Stetson, for good reason, as the Hatters are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

So what happens if Stetson wins? Well, the answer lies in an article we linked to a couple weeks ago. If you don't feel like clicking, we'll give you a spoiler: if an ineligible team wins the Atlantic Sun, then the regular season champion is awarded the conference's automatic bid. Which means if Stetson wins, then the 59 of us who chose North Florida get a second chance at the points. An interesting twist, wouldn't you say?

Moving along, the first bid of 2016 was claimed today. And nobody cared. At least nobody affiliated with our contest. That's because not a single one of us was clever enough to choose Austin Peay as OVC champion. As the old cheer used to go, "1-2-3, Let's Go Peay."

The top Big South seed, High Point, lost today, much to the chagrin of the 22 of us who chose the Panthers to win their conference. The conference final will take place tomorrow, between Winthrop (taken by 28) and UNC-Ashville (itemized by 11).

In the MVC, overwhelming favorite Wichita State (selected by 65 out of 67) went down to Northern Iowa (schelected jucsht by shrewd L Schlegel), which will square off in the conference final tomorrow against Evansville (not selected by anybody).

In the NEC, our favorite composing hoopsters, Wagner (picked by 50) will face off against Fairleigh Dickinson (picked by Fitch, M Josephs, M Peloso, Selig, R Simon, and M Wanger).

G'night now. More tomorrow.

Little Stumbles

Championship week is now four days old, and three prohibitive favorites (at least according to our entrants) have already gone down.

Out of 67 contestants, 59 of us chose North Florida in the Atlantic Sun. Instead, that conference final will feature Florida Gulf Coast (picked by 4: L Leach; Sa Leach; Marshall; Rybaltowski) vs. Stetson (picked by nobody).

Belmont (chosen by 56) lost by a point in OT to Austin Peay (chosen by none). The Governors will face Tennessee-Martin (chosen by only Nocilla) in the OVC final.

In the Patriot League, Bucknell (selected by 51) got punked by Holy Cross (selected by zero). There are still four teams left in the Patriot, but Lehigh (chosen by 9) is the only one of the four that received more than one vote from our contestants (the other semi-finalists are American (taken by Fitch) and Army (nada)).

Only a couple other games of even minor consequence to our contest have taken place in the past couple days. Coastal Carolina (chosen by 6: Baumgarten; Fitch; Gorenstein; M Josephs; L Leach; Rybaltowski) was eliminated in the Big South, and Illinois State (taken by Fitch) went down in the MVC.

So, basically, same old, same old. Talk soon.

We're off...

We have 67 entries in our 27th annual Pre-NCAA Contest, and the games have begun.

Well, two days worth of games, anyway. You'd think on the first day of conference tournament play, with top seeds playing low-major bottom-feeders, we'd all be safe, wouldn't you? Well, you'd be wrong.

You'd be really wrong if you were Tharp or Brenner, both of whom have already lost two conference champions. For Tharp it was his Atlantic Sun champion (Jacksonville) on March 1 and his NEC champion (St Francis PA) on March 2. Brenner dropped both of his (America East champ Albany and NEC champ St. Francis PA) on March 2. But the good news (at least for them) is these unfortunate souls were not alone. Fourteen other entrants have already lost a conference champ.

And we will gladly name them. Joining Tharp and Brenner in ignominy were:

In the ATLANTIC SUN:
Jacksonville (4): Packman, Selig, Tharp, Surprise Leach

In the AMERICA EAST:
Albany (8): Brenner, Broder, D Kedson, M Leach, M Paston, Biebel 2, Rybaltowski, Sciarabba

In the NEC:
St. Francis NY (1): Grossman
St. Francis PA (4): Anania, Brenner, Karlsruher, Tharp

In the OVC:
Tennessee Tech (1): Geo B

More games tonight, and speaking only for ourselves, we can't wait to see who's next.

Entries due Monday

If you're planning on entering our contest and happen to come across this blog entry, let this serve as a reminder that all entries are due MONDAY, FEBRUARY 29, at 11:59pm.

Any later is too late.

A little friendly advice

When filling out your entry, it might behoove you to see what teams are ineligible for the Big Dance. There are many reasons why a team might not be eligible -- APR standards, NCAA violations, self-imposed exile, just came over from Division II, you name it. Some of these teams may even be eligible for their conference tourneys, but pick them at your peril*. The savvy pool entrant will not only know who's ineligible, but what happens if they win their conference tournament.

So you've been warned. We can almost guarantee that at least a few contestants will pick not one but two ineligible teams. Don't be "that guy," unless your goal is to see your name in lights, right here on the blog. For nothing is surer than our unconstrained delight in exposing our entrants' "special" selections.

In other news, the contest is due exactly one week from today. Get those picks in, pronto.


* - our contest rules clearly state that for our purposes, "conference champion" is the team representing the conference in the NCAA.

27th Annual Pre-NCAA Contest is up and running

The 2016 Pre-NCAA Contest is ready to roll!

The entry form may be found here

The rules may be found here

This year for payment, we accept cash, checks, Venmo, or Paypal -- instructions are on the rules page.

DEADLINE FOR ENTRY IS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 29.