Thursday, March 22, 2018


Winners of tonight's games will officially be part of the 2018 Elite Eight. But they'll have only a 48% chance of increasing the scores of one or more of our contestants. Only 12 of the 16 participants have any Elite Eight votes at all:

Duke: 53
Villanova: 52
Purdue: 43
Kansas: 42
West Virginia: 15
Gonzaga: 14
Texas Tech: 6 (Booth, T Cristinzio, Leo Leach, Sam Leach, J McAtee, R Wanger)
Michigan: 4 (Fitch, M Josephs, M McAtee, Steinhardt)
Clemson: 2 (Leo Leach, R Simon)
Kentucky: 1 (D Kedson) (though 26 entrants have UK as their wild card)
Texas A&M: 1 (Rybaltowski)
Nevada: 1 (Paston)
Florida State: zero (though D'Zuro chose Fla St as his wild card)
Loyola-Chicago: zilch
Syracuse: zip
Kansas State: nada

For completeness' sake, here are the other 52% of our Elite Eight picks:

Virginia: 53
Michigan State: 52
North Carolina: 36
Xavier: 35
Wichita State: 15
Arizona: 15
Cincinnati: 13
Auburn: 12
Ohio State: 7 (Baumgarten, T Cristinzio, Howard, Leo Leach, Mad Leach, Sciarabba, R Simon)
Rhode Island: 7 (Gallagher, M Josephs, M McAtee, Serri, Templeton, Templeton 2, Tester)
Tennessee: 5 (M Kleiman, Pogach, Reid, Serri, Warner)
Missouri: 1 (Burch)
Seton Hall: 1 (Goren)
Florida: 1 (Sciarabba)
Virginia Tech: 1 (George B)

Only one entrant (D Kedson) has 6 teams alive for the Elite Eight (Villanova, West Virginia, Purdue, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky), but he can get at most 5 correct (since Villanova and West Virginia are vying for the same Elite Eight spot). Six other entrants have 5 alive plus a wild card (Blane, Paston, D'Zuro, Steinhardt, P Leach, D Josephs) and of those, Paston, Steinhardt, and D Josephs can get as many as 6 of the Elite Eight including their wild card (the other three can get as many as 5, including their wild cards). Another six entrants have 5 alive but their wild card is gone (Reid, Rybaltowski, K Sullivan, Tester, B Peloso, DiCicco), and of those only K Sullivan and DiCicco can get as many as 5 of the Elite Eight.

In other words, nine (9) of our contestants might get more than half the Elite Eight correct. The other 85.2% of us won't. Twenty of us (32.8%) can get at most three right, including Templeton, T Cristinzio, Howard, and George B, who only have two (2) of their Eight (8) alive.

We'll have some Final Four numbers tomorrow. Enjoy the games.

No comments: